Good Tuesday to one and all. For the first time in weeks… we can FINALLY say we have a dry day out there!!! 
This will bring a smile to everyone across the area and will certainly help out those cleaning up from the historic floods from this past weekend.
That’s the good news…. the bad news is that the stormy pattern is simply reloading for the middle of the week into the coming weekend. That may spell trouble in terms of both severe weather and of heavy rain and possible additional flooding. It is something that I am becoming increasingly worried about as the signs are all showing up for more rounds of rain and thunderstorms. 
The action may get started Wednesday as a warm front moves eastward across the state. Some of the models have been trying to develop a cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms across Indiana and Illinois Tuesday night then bringing it east-southeast across us. The GFS has been showing this scenario for several runs in a row now. Each run differs with where the heaviest rains go and that is to be expected. Here is what the last run shows…
That is certainly something to watch folks and you can bet we will be doing just that as it won’t take very much rain at all to cause more high water problems.
It doesn’t end there though. A cold front heads toward the area Wednesday night into early Thursday and should have one heck of a squall line with it and that will likely be approaching us when you wake up Thursday morning. It will be the cause of a lot of severe weather to our west and northwest. Can it hold the intensity long enough to bring severe weather to us Thursday? That’s another question for us to try to answer over the next few days. Here is what that line looks like to start the day…
Thursday Morning
That front will never make it through the area and will instead become stationary and will become the focal point for showers and thunderstorms to develop. A very moist and warm southwesterly flow will develop by Friday and will spike the humidity levels leading to heavy rain producing storms….
Friday Evening
The picture doesn’t improve much as we head into the weekend as this front hangs tough across the region…
Saturday Evening
Sunday Afternoon
The setup for the weekend is one that may allow for low pressure or waves of low pressure to develop along the front. If this happens… look out, as it will only enhance the heavy rain threat.
I will keep watch on things as always and throw out updates as needed. Have a great day and enjoy the one dry day of the month.
Take care.
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Good morning Chris and all. Everyone get out and enjoy today’s sun, looks like the last of it for a bit.
The interesting thing is, NAM doesn’t hardly bring any rain into central/eastern KY at all in the next 84 hours. Weird..
Chris, thanks for the heads up. what are we going to do? Shoot, if this rain keeps up, we are going to go right into summer dry when it finally DOES let up for more than a day, I’m afraid. I hope I am wrong!
Have to go to Lexington tomorrow pm to pick up the wedding dress and maid of honor dress. Hope the rain will hold off, or at least be scattered while we travel.
I am going to get out of the office as much as possible today, and enjoy the sun! Chris, are you saying we won’t see the sun, or these things will be coming in batches, with some sunshine thrown in to rev up the instabillity? Just askin….:D
I’m sick of all this rain! I hope this pattern we are in changes soon. Where is that South East Ridge when you need it? This is worse than Seattle or the Amazon Rain Forest.
What a gruesome forecast! We can’t handle anymore rain in this area. Both Floyd and Pike counties are disaster areas; schools have been flooded, one school even lost the CATS tests to flood waters. Roads have been washed out, mud is everywhere! Why couldn’t this be a forecast for snowstorms? Then it would fizzle out and go away.
The NAM might be the one out in left field for this warm frontal precip. Both the CMC and Euro are hinting at it. The UKMET looks to also be heading in that direction. I think a completely dry forecast for tomorrow would not be a good idea. Hence why I went with Isolated showers for London for tomorrow on my blog last night. I’m probably going to up that to scattered this evening.
By the way, I have some pictures from the flood damage in WV on my blog, not the best in the world, but I was snapping in between interviews on Sunday.
Belfry Middle. I live near the school. They said it probably won’t matter because they’re eliminating the CATS Test anyway.
Mitch and I were both wondering why on earth they did not use a Tornado Watch for us last week. Bet they wish they did now…. Anybody have any scoop on that? What were they thinking?