New Week, Same Weather Pattern?

Good Monday to one and all. Here is hoping each of you had a great Mother’s Day weekend. It is one that, as we mentioned Sunday, will go down in weather infamy. Our thoughts and prayers certainly go out to those impacted by the nasty weather. From the folks dealing with the tornado in Madison county to the flood ravaged residents of eastern Kentucky… we are thinking about each of you.

Our Mother’s Day turned out pretty good. We did have a few showers working across the region during the evening hours and some of those continue right now. This makes it 11 for 11 for the month of May in terms of getting rain somewhere across the state. Wow!

As I begin to look ahead to the weather for the new week that is now upon us… I am seeing a pattern that I am not really liking as it can bring the threat for more heavy rains and strong storms to us. Given the weather problems of late… this is going to be a week that you want to be very careful about where you get your forecast from. I can only hope this blog provides you with good weather information that is a cut above the rest… that is my goal!

So how does it look this week?

We have a very weak system that is riding across the southern part of the state and is bringing some fast moving showers to some areas. If any of the hardest hit areas get a heavy shower or thundershower today… I can see a quick rise on local streams. With a saturated ground… nothing on radar should be overlooked. Here is the radar to track the showers…

The rest of the area will see a mix of sun and clouds today with temps trying to get to 70.

Tuesday looks pretty good right now. We start cool with temps in the low to mid 40s and end with highs around the lower 70s. It is once into Wednesday that a warm front crosses northeastward across our area. It is likely to bring a renewed risk of showers and thunderstorms…

Wednesday Evening

Once that warm front surges through… humidity levels will increase as a cold front works toward us from the northwest on Thursday. A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will be along this front and that will be something for us to watch for…

Thursday Morning

Just how far southeast that line can get is up in the air as it looks like this front never makes it in here. Instead… it may stall out just to our north and this is something we do NOT want to see as it would mean the potential for repeat showers and thunderstorms as this will likely be a very humid air mass that will be in place around here by that time.

The models are trying to say the stormy pattern hangs tough into the weekend…

Saturday Evening

So there you have it… a new week, but a pattern that MAY not be a whole heck of a lot different. Here is hoping this changes in the next few days.

More updates as needed… take care.

31 Comments

WXman on May 11, 2009 at 12:29 pm

Trust me, we’re gonna’ be keeping a very close eye on the severe weather situation this week..

Coffeelady on May 11, 2009 at 1:12 pm

Gee Chris, I was really hoping you would have better news for us today about the upcoming weather week….oh well, I guess we will take what we get, but this rain thing is really causing serious problems. I don’t think this part of the state can handle
too much nore right now….

Tim, I think you SERIOUSLY need to consider getting the ark out of storage in honor of chris’ forecast!

Pike Co. Resident on May 11, 2009 at 3:39 pm

Here are some websites to go to if you want more about the flood over the weekend in Pike Co.

http://www.wkyt.com/wymtnews/headlines/44645757.html

http://www.wkyt.com/wymtnews/headlines/44676632.html

http://www.wkyt.com/wymtnews/headlines/44645907.html

Also go to wsaz.com for areial views of EKY Flood and a report from Belfry, KY

mitch on May 11, 2009 at 5:39 pm

moderate risk for wednesday day 3 already to our west.

mitch on May 11, 2009 at 5:41 pm

looking ahead the squall line thursday is a big concern then afterwards i could see this pattern continuing right through the summer on the gfs there’s no end in sight and my summer forecast was a calmer verson of this jet pattern.

Renee' on May 11, 2009 at 5:52 pm

So….I put down weed killer yesterday thinking it was finally a day without rain. What does it do at 9:30 p.m.? Rain. UHHHHHH….can’t win.

mitch on May 11, 2009 at 5:52 pm

nws
ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO IT LOOKS AS IF SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN.

that’s a relief no severe storms Thursday nothing can change in 4 days.

i would have written
” at this time the wind fields look impressive along the front however at this time the majority of the forecast models and thinking here at the office is, as the front slows the best dynamics will stay north making severe weather less likely”. However the chance for severe weather is not out of the question.

i think the tough questions need to be asked of the spc on why they went with a severe thunderstorm watch over a tornado watch for most of Friday afternoon.

i really think the conservative stance to severe weather is not the way to go. if people see the weather agencies taking things lightly they will do so and follow suite and not be totally prepared for what might come.

MarkLex on May 11, 2009 at 7:01 pm

I wonder if this year is going to end up being like 2004? Take last year for example, by this time, we already had eight more inches of rain that we have had this year at this time,(in Lexington anyway) but the rain stopped in the summer (last year) and it got so dry. In 2004, the ENTIRE year was so WET. I remember because that’s the year we had our house built. If I remember correctly, the major rains started in late May of 04 but we had normal rains up until that time.

Pike Co. Resident on May 11, 2009 at 7:43 pm

School Info…
*Pike Co.-Closed Tues.
*Breathitt Co.-Closed Tues.
*Riverside Christian-Closed Tues.
*Garrett Christian Academy-Closed Tues.

Pike Co. Resident on May 11, 2009 at 7:47 pm

BOIL WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR…
*PIKE COUNTY
*WOLFE COUNTY

IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

mitch on May 11, 2009 at 9:12 pm

much better afternoon discussion!

Rhonda on May 12, 2009 at 1:00 am

That’s why I always check this blog. I can’t tell you how much the comments are appreciated! I find the weather fascinating, but I don’t know beans about predicting it. Thanks to all of you who comment—I’m trying to learn.

Shane on May 12, 2009 at 5:49 am

The problem with the way we currently issue watches and warnings is that’s is a real double edged sword. If you start issuing too many and they don’t verify people won’t take it seriously. But if you play it too conservative you run the risk of people not being formed.

I personally think a Tornado Watch should have been issued for last Friday, or if they were going to issue a Severe T’storm watch, make it a PDS *Particularly Dangerous Situation*.

Ultimately it rests on individuals to stay weather aware. As long as us in the media, and the national weather service do our jobs, it’s up to people to take the information we provide and act on it.

By the way, congrats on graduating from UK Mitch! And good luck with grad school down at my old stomping grounds.

Shane on May 12, 2009 at 5:51 am

I got to witness some of the devastating flooding in Southern WV yesterday. So many people lost all their possessions. One lady I talked to said the creek came up about 2 feet every 30 minutes and eventually got up almost the ceiling in her home. I posted a few pictures I snapped between interviews and shooting video, on my blog.

Advent on March 22, 2011 at 12:02 pm

Excellent article!

Irorrychentee on April 9, 2011 at 4:29 am

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zhenimsja on April 14, 2011 at 5:24 am

Hello, man! I am utterly agree with your way of assessment and everything connected.

zhilayazona on April 18, 2011 at 6:36 am

Excellent article!

Beremennost_bodz on April 19, 2011 at 12:32 am

Good post! thank you

Brerproma on April 19, 2011 at 5:50 pm

С каких источников у вас такая инфа?

zhilayazona on April 21, 2011 at 6:19 am

Excellent article!

E Cigarette on April 27, 2011 at 3:17 pm

Thank you! Took himself too-handy.

sigarety on April 28, 2011 at 6:15 pm

Good blog, fresh infa, pochityvayu

intim on April 29, 2011 at 5:16 pm

Fun!

getBruifert on April 29, 2011 at 9:22 pm

Hi!
There are a few questions on your site.
How can I contact the administration?

goldfishka on May 7, 2011 at 8:53 pm

Such positions only added popularity.

maul on May 11, 2011 at 7:16 pm

I beg Sorry for my english. But he could not express his opinion. You have very interesting site.

obuv liska on May 28, 2011 at 6:30 am

Your site is interesting, putting the site to your favorites.

AparyKayaps on June 13, 2011 at 7:28 pm

Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on this topic.

Aesthetics on June 17, 2011 at 12:47 pm

Do not quite understand, do you transfer your texts

AparyKayaps on June 21, 2011 at 5:36 am

WXman on May 11, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Trust me, we’re gonna’ be keeping a very close eye on the severe weather situation this week..
Coffeelady on May 11, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Gee Chris, I was really hoping you would have better news for us today about the upcoming weather week….oh well, I guess we will take what we get, but this rain thing is really causing serious problems. I don’t think this part of the state can handle
too much nore right now….
Tim, I think you SERIOUSLY need to consider getting the ark out of storage in honor of chris’ forecast!
Pike Co. Resident on May 11, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Here are some websites to go to if you want more about the flood over the weekend in Pike Co.
http://www.wkyt.com/wymtnews/headlines/44645757.html
http://www.wkyt.com/wymtnews/headlines/44676632.html
http://www.wkyt.com/wymtnews/headlines/44645907.html
Also go to wsaz.com for areial views of EKY Flood and a report from Belfry, KY
mitch on May 11, 2009 at 5:39 pm
moderate risk for wednesday day 3 already to our west.
mitch on May 11, 2009 at 5:41 pm
looking ahead the squall line thursday is a big concern then afterwards i could see this pattern continuing right through the summer on the gfs there’s no end in sight and my summer forecast was a calmer verson of this jet pattern.
Renee' on May 11, 2009 at 5:52 pm
So….I put down weed killer yesterday thinking it was finally a day without rain. What does it do at 9:30 p.m.? Rain. UHHHHHH….can’t win.
mitch on May 11, 2009 at 5:52 pm
nws
ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO IT LOOKS AS IF SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN.
that’s a relief no severe storms Thursday nothing can change in 4 days.
i would have written
” at this time the wind fields look impressive along the front however at this time the majority of the forecast models and thinking here at the office is, as the front slows the best dynamics will stay north making severe weather less likely”. However the chance for severe weather is not out of the question.
i think the tough questions need to be asked of the spc on why they went with a severe thunderstorm watch over a tornado watch for most of Friday afternoon.
i really think the conservative stance to severe weather is not the way to go. if people see the weather agencies taking things lightly they will do so and follow suite and not be totally prepared for what might come.
MarkLex on May 11, 2009 at 7:01 pm
I wonder if this year is going to end up being like 2004? Take last year for example, by this time, we already had eight more inches of rain that we have had this year at this time,(in Lexington anyway) but the rain stopped in the summer (last year) and it got so dry. In 2004, the ENTIRE year was so WET. I remember because that’s the year we had our house built. If I remember correctly, the major rains started in late May of 04 but we had normal rains up until that time.
Pike Co. Resident on May 11, 2009 at 7:43 pm
School Info…
*Pike Co.-Closed Tues.
*Breathitt Co.-Closed Tues.
*Riverside Christian-Closed Tues.
*Garrett Christian Academy-Closed Tues.
Pike Co. Resident on May 11, 2009 at 7:47 pm
BOIL WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR…
*PIKE COUNTY
*WOLFE COUNTY
IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
mitch on May 11, 2009 at 9:12 pm
much better afternoon discussion!
Rhonda on May 12, 2009 at 1:00 am
That’s why I always check this blog. I can’t tell you how much the comments are appreciated! I find the weather fascinating, but I don’t know beans about predicting it. Thanks to all of you who comment—I’m trying to learn.
Shane on May 12, 2009 at 5:49 am
The problem with the way we currently issue watches and warnings is that’s is a real double edged sword. If you start issuing too many and they don’t verify people won’t take it seriously. But if you play it too conservative you run the risk of people not being formed.
I personally think a Tornado Watch should have been issued for last Friday, or if they were going to issue a Severe T’storm watch, make it a PDS *Particularly Dangerous Situation*.
Ultimately it rests on individuals to stay weather aware. As long as us in the media, and the national weather service do our jobs, it’s up to people to take the information we provide and act on it.
By the way, congrats on graduating from UK Mitch! And good luck with grad school down at my old stomping grounds.
Shane on May 12, 2009 at 5:51 am
I got to witness some of the devastating flooding in Southern WV yesterday. So many people lost all their possessions. One lady I talked to said the creek came up about 2 feet every 30 minutes and eventually got up almost the ceiling in her home. I posted a few pictures I snapped between interviews and shooting video, on my blog.
Advent on March 22, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Excellent article!
Irorrychentee on April 9, 2011 at 4:29 am
[url= viagra online[/url] Stupefying hardened to usage of powerlessness
zhenimsja on April 14, 2011 at 5:24 am
Hello, man! I am utterly agree with your way of assessment and everything connected.
zhilayazona on April 18, 2011 at 6:36 am
Excellent article!
Beremennost_bodz on April 19, 2011 at 12:32 am
Good post! thank you
Brerproma on April 19, 2011 at 5:50 pm
С каких источников у вас такая инфа?
zhilayazona on April 21, 2011 at 6:19 am
Excellent article!
E Cigarette on April 27, 2011 at 3:17 pm
Thank you! Took himself too-handy.
sigarety on April 28, 2011 at 6:15 pm
Good blog, fresh infa, pochityvayu
intim on April 29, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Fun!
getBruifert on April 29, 2011 at 9:22 pm
Hi!
There are a few questions on your site.
How can I contact the administration?
goldfishka on May 7, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Such positions only added popularity.
maul on May 11, 2011 at 7:16 pm
I beg Sorry for my english. But he could not express his opinion. You have very interesting site.
obuv liska on May 28, 2011 at 6:30 am
Your site is interesting, putting the site to your favorites.
AparyKayaps on June 13, 2011 at 7:28 pm
Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on this topic.
Aesthetics on June 17, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Do not quite understand, do you transfer your texts
AparyKayaps on June 21, 2011 at 5:36 am
ok

31 Comments

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