Good Monday everyone and thanks for dropping in on the blog. As hard as it is to believe, we are just about to wrap up summer and head into fall. Labor Day Weekend is almost upon us and the weather looks like it may be in a rather changeable mood.
Before we get into the changes ahead… I noticed some talk of “drought” in the comments section of the last update. While there are several areas of the state that are in need of rain, the term “drought” is not to be used lightly and does not fit overall conditions across the state. For those of you who have lived through some “real” droughts around here over the past years. You have heard the words “Palmer Drought Index” way to many times to count. You are about to hear it again as the Palmer Drought Index shows the state within the normal category…
Again… that doesn’t mean there aren’t many areas seeing short term dry conditions.
We are starting off this brand new work week with more in the way of dry weather as we have a gorgeous day in store. Highs on this Monday will range from the upper 70s in the east to near 85 in the west.
Areas that have clear skies overnight will see temps take a nice little tumble into the low and mid 50s. The coldest valleys in the east have a shot at an upper 40. Again… clear skies will have to rule for the lowest temps to be noted.
Tuesday will see a few clouds begin to return as our temps start to climb. The heat will be bulging eastward across the plains and will likely have scattered showers and storms along the eastern edge of it and these may wander in here for Wednesday and Thursday.
The west will continue to run much hotter than areas of central and eastern Kentucky right on into the upcoming holiday weekend. Low 90s will be very possible in the west as the east has a shot at a 90. Again… shower and storm action will have something to say about that on the local level.
The pattern from Saturday through Labor Day will feature an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest late Sunday. This should have a decent amount of moisture working into it from the south and the models are seeing this…
GFS WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS
Something else the models are seeing is the amount of cool air building up in Canada. The holiday weekend front should have a nice little cool shot of air coming in behind it for much of next week. The European Model is very bullish with a major trough in the east by Monday…
We will have to wait and see just how deep this trough winds up being… but the trend is for a fairly amplified solution.
Also of note for next week is the threat for another Atlantic Hurricane making a run toward the states. Something to watch for as much of the east coast tries to piece things back together from Hurricane Irene.
Have a great Monday and take care.
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On yesterdays GFS map is that black spot over Lexington the snow dome already setting up? lol
i had this in the last thread, and wanted to repost this again, in case it was missed
Chris, and anyone else who posts here, you may be interested in this link http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/27/do-really-need-national-weather-service/?cmpid=cmty_fb_Gigya_Do_We_Really_Need_a_National_Weather_Service%3F
i know i dont always agree with nws, but we DO need them. without nws, the apr 27th tornado outbreak could of had a lot more deaths without their warnings
whoever thinks we dont need a nws must not care about others, but soon as a storm would of damaged their property, or put one of their lives in danger, they would then say thank goodness for nws for giving warnings out in time. some people…….
Lol Chelle!!! Others brought out the drought word, now you’ve mentioned the snow word!! With all these weather extremes the east coast has had of late I was wondering what kind of winter we might have!!
I disagree with this article. His problem is he makes sweeping generalizations. I did a local study and the NWS smoked all other sources with temp forecasts over a six week period. LOCAL is more reliable than some clowns in an office in PA trying to forecast for the entire nation. Also, with watches and warnings, there MUST be a standard. With no NWS, who enforces that standard? The guy who wrote this article is ignorant. That is being nice about it.
Chris, conditions in several parts meet the requirements for both hydrological and agricultural drought, with hydrological getting close. It may not be a severe drought but worse then just needing some rain. You have a large audience so I would appreciate you not underplaying this issue.
Sorry, meant meteorologic and agricultural drought. Also, any one who works with drought knows it works best with long term droughts like Texas. Use the Drought Monitor that relies on information from 300 experts from across the country every week. Bottom line is crops have been damaged and streams are drying up so yea there is drought here in the Commonwealth
I would suggest these articles for reading. While they are pro NWS in general, they do offer some sound reasoning on why the NWS should exist.
http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/08/should-national-weather-service-be.html?spref=tw
and
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/08/do-we-need-national-weather-service.html
shit there no drought in se ky that for sure.
that said i think we fo go into a dry action for winter with little to not much rain and snow. spring early summer was wet so it going even out. already started that trend.
man u could feel/smell fall in air thisa morning.ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Love your work Chris, but gotta agree with Packman on this one. We are experiencing moderate drought in my area.
We are powder keg dry in Pulaski County. The tracks of several of the latest precip events skirted to our east and west. I cant remember the last time we had ANY rain in North Central Pulaski County. Did have a couple events in the southern part of the county, but from Somerset northward…..zero. I hope we can get in on a tropical system to help things out. Only if it manages to get to us without causing any damage at landfall. I know….thats impossible. Send us some rain!!!!
I commented on the drought yesterday. It was Belski with a Facebook post on August 25 that showed a map with roughly I75 west under low level drought and a couple of spots under moderate drought. Just in my travels this weekend, it looks real dry along 64 west of Frankfort, and 127/34 looks the same in the Danville/Harrodsburg area. We are still green in Georgetown.
Not being a weather forecaster myself, what is the difference in the map that Chris showed and the one that Belski showed?
Per the U.S. Drought Monitor for Kentucky.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?KY,MW
11.60% of KY is under Moderate Drought – including Adair, Casey, Pulaski and Russell counties. Also Oldham/Trimble counties and adjacent areas.
60.11% is under the “Abnormally Dry” category.
Right or wrong, these measurements are pretty precise. I’d love to hear an argument as to why they should not be used.