Good Tuesday everyone. Our weather pattern is heading more toward a summer feel over the next several days with some big changes lurking for the holiday weekend and beyond. This is right on cue with start of meteorological fall.
Speaking of fall… our day should start out on a rather fall feel with temps flirting with chilly for some. A few upper 40s and low 50s should be scattered about the bluegrass to start you out today. The good folks at Kentucky Mesonet have you set up to check out those low temps…
Skies will be partly sunny today as our temps warm back into the low and mid 80s central and east and near 90 in the far west.
We begin to see some clouds increasing this evening into Wednesday as a weak system moves in from the west. This should spawn a scattered shower or thunderstorm Wednesday and again Thursday. Because of this… we should see a variation in high temps. The farther west you are the hotter things will be as temps hit the low 90s.
Everyone has a shot at seeing 90 as we work into Friday. This looks to be the hottest day of the week and may turn out to be the hottest day until next summer.
A strong cold front moves in later this weekend with showers and thunderstorms increasing Saturday into Sunday. This doesn’t bode well for all the outdoor activities and we will keep you updated through the week. Labor Day Monday will see MUCH cooler air moving in behind a true autumnal front.
The European Model shows a heck of a shot of cool air…
Highs in the 70s should be common for the first half of next week with lows possibly dipping into the 40s.
Overall, the first two weeks of September look to feature cooler than normal temps around here and for much of the eastern half of the country.
We are inching closer and closer to the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and a storm in the far eastern Atlantic is likely to become Katia at any moment…
Katia is the name on the list that replaced Katrina and is forecast to become a hurricane as it chugs toward the west. It is WAY to early to tell if this will impact the United States, but some of the models say it might creep into the discussion…
European Model Wednesday, September 7th
I think we should also keep an eye out for something trying to brew closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
I will have a forecast for UK and WKU fans heading to Nashville for Thursday night’s opener coming later today.
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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David in Gtown- to answer your question from yesterday, the Palmer, Chris’s map, does better with long term droughts and is very slow to react. Belski’s map and the Drought Monitor are showing what it is really like out there with lots of crop yields taking a major hit in places. Chris just used that map to protect his summer forecast of no drought, which I said would be wrong.
That makes since. I would agree that us in Central KY have been in and out of drought conditions at various times this summer. The last few weeks being the worst. We are defintely at the beginning of a drought. At least it will be like last years and not get too dry until we enter September and the fall when it won’t be as bad. I think others in the state are far off worst then Central KY.
Jake
Packman,
You have been with us since the KYT days, but your tone of late is very negative toward me. I have let those slide but refuse to do so when you accuse me of intentionally posting data to support a seasonal forecast.
FACT: I could care less about the summer forecast I made back in May. Doesn’t even cross my mind.
FACT: Louisville, Covington, Bowling Green, Jackson, Ashland and Paducah are all wrapping up ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL summers. Lexington is the only official reporting station running behind and is only off by .40″.
FACT: The state of Kentucky is running from 8″ to 20″ above normal for rain on the year.
FACT: The Palmer Drought Index is the STANDARD in the weather community. There is a reason why every tv station and newspaper report the PDI numbers during a real drought!
FACT: The summer heat has more to do with the browning lawns and dusty roads than the lack of rain. Brown grass and dust does not a make a drought.
FACT: There are numerous places across Kentucky that can use some soaking rain! There is no denying this and some are extremely dry! No one is debating this point.
Can anyone actually remember a year or a summer when didn’t go through a dry spell? I certainly can’t. Does that mean every dry spell is classified as a drought, let alone as a severe drought like some want to call this? No!
Could we be in the beginning of a mild drought as we move into fall? That is certainly possible and the weather over the next few months will decide that.
Please keep in mind… there is no such thing as “normal” with weather. The term normal is basically the average between two extremes. Some months are super wet… some are super dry. That’s the way it has always been and will continue to be. Each time we are one or the other, we shouldn’t run around freaking out or looking for someone to blame.
Again… I appreciate your contributions here on the blog and am thankful you have been with us from the start. Please don’t suggest I am making stuff up or misleading my readers in any way.
Take care,
CB
Sorry Chris, I work with drought so I wasn’t big on your no drought comment. Yes, every year there is a dry period but this is a little more serious. A pretty good chunck of southern KY is sitting at 65 -70% rainfall for the last 120 days. You can throw Oldham co in that group too. The Dix, Green, and Barren river watersheds are having some serious low flow problems. Agriculture has had some serious hits in that area as well. So yes, the bluegrass is just a little dry and parts of eastern Kentucky are down right wet but there is definitly moderate, and maybe even severe drought in southern ky and parts of western ky. As for the Palmer, I know some people love it and some not so much, I’m just the later.
always that lat hoorayyyy warm up for couple days this time year, last few days u can smell fall in air of mornings and evening. even some leaves starting to fall.
man but im afraid will see a dry winter to make up for the wet spring early summer. i hope im wrong.
hey BAILEY tx for this place man, thru my rough times it has brought me enjoyment to come and talk and stuff with u and great people. love u all.\
to my horse friends will have money makers over labor day weekend as there some great racing, stay tuned SAT thru monday.
No apology needed my friend! 🙂
I appreciate the info you bring… keep it coming. Just don’t slam me too much… Im fragile! haha
BTW… how is your pack looking this year? Repeat?
I was waiting for you to say FACT: Bears, beets, Battlestar Galactica….Michael!!! 🙂
Most definitely! I would ask you about the Bengals, but that would just be mean. 🙂
Chris, it would be great if the radar could be reset to show Kentucky (it seems it is still on the Irene sites. I know I can see the little one to the side, but miss coming on and seeing it on the main post. Thanks!
No denying there’s places in the state that need rain, some badly, but calling our recent dry spell a drought is an insult to every resident of the state of Texas.
Ah man steelers goin all the way this year