Good Friday everyone and thanks for blogging with me. Since I will have numerous posts throughout the day… I will keep this one brief.
Let’s start with the weather today. Snow showers will continue to put down light accumulations across the area. These have been more steady across the north and east and some areas can pick up an inch or so out of this. Here is the radar pic…
Temps today will be in the 20s for highs.
Now to what everyone is waiting for… our WINTER STORM THREAT for early next week. After giving the forecast models all the props in the world the past few days for agreeing with one another. They have now decided to stop playing nice and to start jumping around with next week’s storm. Many of them made a big jump farther east with the track of the low meaning we would only get grazed by the storm… IF they are correct.
Among those models holding their ground… the GFS ensembles and the UKMET. Check out the Ensembles…
Monday Afternoon
Monday Evening
Monday Night
Tuesday Morning
Check out the healthy precip amounts it is still spitting out around here…
That’s about an inch of liquid that would fall in the form of snow! The funny thing about the ensembles is that they are usually biased to far east with storms. Yet, they are now among the farther west models with the track.
The UKMET continues to look fairly close to what everything has been showing in recent days…
Why did some of the models all of a sudden decide to send this low to near the Atlantic coast? Well… that’s something I will be looking into after I have had some sleep. 
But… let me point out a couple of things here. When you see some of these models take a big turn with one run… you can’t make a knee jerk reaction. If they continue to show that trend over the next 48 hours… then they are onto something. The other thing is the seasonal trend of storms this winter. EVERY storm has trended west once within 48 hours of them actually hitting! We have seen it time and time again around here this winter and in the past several years. So let’s keep that in mind!
Winter Storm Threat continues for Monday through Wednesday of next week! I will have another update coming early in the afternoon hours so be sure to check back. Have a great Friday and take care.
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thanks Chris SLEEP IS FOR THE WEAK j/k buddy
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
i guarantee that it will rain, IF we get the storm next week. it may switch to snow, but they will be rain IF we get anything at all from this possible storm.
WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime
Radar showing snow over part of Pike Co….anyone seeing the real thing?
Very fine snow in Clay Co. but it’s apparently enough for them to call off school! There must be worse conditions out there that I don’t know about…
Bring on the Blizzard! I’m gonna be teaching in July anyways….
Snowing/snow showers in Southern Pike.
Heard that. I’ll be right there with you at least until half way through June. They’ll probably shorten or take spring break if it snows next week. Have a great 3-day weekend or 12-day weekend if we get the “b”. 🙂
Pike Co. 1 hour delay
I taught in Floyd Co in ’92-’93 and we were in until (if memory serves) June 22. It was HORRIBLE!!!! It was my first year teaching though so I really didn’t know any better!!!
It shows how much you know if the storm is going east is impossible for WAA to effect us what would happen is keep moisture awayit would have to go west and be sitting on top of your head and thats just not gonna happen. now go wash your mouth out with soap 😉
WAA?
i hope they don’t close
Yeah—We’ve already used all of our banked time AND I’ve already done my treadmill and showered!!!!! LOL
Is the snow sticking at your place?
Is it sticking at Dorton?
If this thing is missed with an eastern trend I’m moving. Every storm for the past two years (maybe more) has went west causing us to be to warm for snow. Now we have one set up to the east in perfect position and it wants to trend east. Hopefully just a bad model run. If this thing goes east I quit. Move on to spring.
It is now, everything is coated and it is coming down pretty good.
Hmmm….sounds like we better be watching for a cancellation of school…what do you think?
warm air aloft
I think they will cancel by what it is doing here.
roads snow covered with a squall line here in manchester, 4 lane was white till the STATE got off their rumps.lol
not slick though if u have any sense at all.
also there will be a SHJARP CUTOFF with the snow, lexington might not get much at all, while 5– miles South and easdt get HAMMERED!!!
lord almighty chris G, to get the warm air we have to be to the east of the low track, TRUST ME WHEN I SAY we are going to be on west side.
it going to be RAIN to start out, but will quickly change over.
I am not wooried at all yet about the BIG DADDY.
now I might have to roll back my totals some.
but as the LEGEND pointed out, this baby will trend a bit west as we move in on D DAY, so im not alarmed with models disagreeing right now.
come SUNDAY they will come back around.
i lay 100-50 that we will get a western turn as CB pointed out like most other storms over the past several winters.
so i like seeing some models showing a more eastern track right now.
I still believe that EASTER/SE KY going to see 12 plus in some areas.
simply put WE ARE GOING TO GET OUR SNOW!!!
ITS TIME!!! OLD SCHOOL JUST BEING A LITTLE UNRULY ON THE MODELS.
BUT in time he will come around and be a good little OLD SCHOOLER.WOOOOOO
Not really. Just a little bit of white on the deck. Marina Jurica off of WSAZ just said in my area we can expect 1-3 in. for Friday. I doubt it.
the 06Z shows same path
hope not. i don’t want to go all summer.
We don’t have much of anything but “Dorton” just said things up there are covered and we better watch for a cancellation.
Okay… I’m going to start doubting now…
if thats what you want to do best thing is be indifferent
Morning all. thanks for the update, Chris. I kind of figured that the models would waffle some, they always do. And I expect that the differences will be batted around on here util they drop. that is normal, too.
I am not getting excited until you actually pull the trigger, nad tell me that we are getting snow, and not rain. And then, if your foremer workmate at KYt goes ahead, than I am going for bread and milk. Because if BOTH of you agree that much, its usually a done deal! 😉
Have a great morning everyone. Chris, I will be checking in to see what you say on the next update! Thanks again!
Warm Air Advection
heard anything else? Just got a chance to look outside. everything is covered. even the roads! there is no way a bus could get up here!
same same 😛
Actually, outside of a standstill with the models, I didn’t mind seeing it go east on a run instead of a west shift. A west shift closer to storm time will be great, but continuous shifts to the west from now until storm time, may have been bad. That being said, for some very odd reason that the east shift continues, very bad for all of KY.
Wow, every single model besides the UKMET has shifted the low to the coast. An interesting development, but a shift this far out doesn’t concern me yet. Need to see what the rest of today’s runs show.
heard anything else?
Look’s like it was the case of the infamous 5 day out storm again… leaving us with a dusting…
I think you owe Chris G. an apology. Warm Air Advection DOES always win. It’s very difficult to displace the warm High in the Carribean, hence Winter storms have a hard time hitting us. Also, there is a BIG difference between advection and aloft. Actually, they are total opposites.
Yup. The models are finally getting realistic. 🙂
well somebody was aksing where the naysayers were i guess now we know they have arrived. Like Chris said if people would read “When you see some of these models take a big turn with one run… you can’t make a knee jerk reaction”
yea and teacher D and WXMAN are my kinda of people, count us out.
but u all might not see much in central ky, i didnt think u would anyway.
it going to end up as a SHARP CUT OFF sanyway, 10 inches of snow in one place and 50 miles-70 miles away maybe inch or 2.
get em andy, they should be happy, cause they are not going to get what us in S/SE going to get, it not going to be a WIDE SPREAD KY SNOW,
ITS OUR TIME!!!
anybody else watching the GREAT TENNIS MATCH from down under, it going on 4 hours and 30 min going into 5th set.
I live in scott co. I have about 6 inches on the ground and ice everywhere, so I say you folks in the south can have all the snow you want, Im done with it this year.
So my maps reading on my phone was not as bad as I thought? My original view was an east event, but I waffled based on all the models trending west.
No offense to the snow starved, but I will gladly eat this waffle with lots of maple syrup 🙂 mmmmmm.
Whoever it does hit will get hammered, so bliss for a miss 🙂
Sorry… I did read what Chris wrote. I’m just going with my gut here and saying it moves too far East…
Why don’t you jump don’t rolo’s neck everytime he doubts a storm coming?
btw, I’m not in central Kentucky.. Northeastern KY, 20 mins from the West Virginia border… So, if I don’t get it eastern ky doesn’t get hit.
I’ll give it a few more runs before I totally doubt though…
I didn’t even mention the fact that it has been pouring here in Carter County since 5:00 this morning, we have 1.5 inches added on to the 6 inches and ice from last storm… It is pouring right now!
I thought the 0z nam trended west to the point that the snow missed everybody but western kentucky.
That was to Andy btw… and I meant jump down… not jump don’t… lol
well thank you for speaking your opinion its nice to know you have one
Sorry folks, but this is FAR worse and MUCH colder than the 2003 event. A lot of people are suffering and do not have the economic means to keep their families warm enough- not to mention the logistics involved with school, work, pets, etc.
I will except this as my first miss since I waffled. I should have not doubted my hillbilly instincts. I will never doubt the power of a simple mind again! 🙂
Now I must hope the modles do not converge again to winter doom for central KY.
Tennis? What’s that? lol
Hey guys, I read the blog constantly, but rarely post. This is the best CHANCE that Kentucky has seen for a true snowstorm in many, many years. That does not mean it will happen or it won’t happen. We are still two and a half days out on this system, and these eastward shifts have been the norm at this point for the past several years. Last March two days out showed a massive snow for central KY, but in the last 24 hrs, the system makes a westward movement and western KY gets the snow. With that being said, using trends and ONLY trends that makes this a good thing for central and eastern KY at this point. Another thing just to throw out at you, in 1998 (almost 11 years to the day), that system made a surprising last second move to the west to dump on most of central and east KY. Like I said, this is our best chance in many years, and if it comes to pass, great we finally get the snow monkey off our backs, if it doesn’t, we wait and we get excited about the next big one that comes down the pike, because that is what we do! Thanks again Chris for creating and maintaining such a great weather community!
Rolo,
This system was supposed to be a monster, so if it has that sharp a cut-off now, that would suggest a more tight event that means more a chance for everyone to be missed. I would suggest that if central got 2 inches. E KY would only get about 4 inches (as an example).
I’m at school — I guess we’re still on an hour delay…weird.
Had we not had eleven years of misses, I would agree. Even the current event fits the past eleven years for the area:
Mainly ice or cold rain for all but north KY.
I think you all are in a state of denial now ;). Maples syrup is greaaat with waffles! 🙂
If Kentucky weather has taught me anything, it is that we cannot know with much certainty what will happen until up until the last minute. Therefore, I take the wait and see approach. I would love a good snow, but also welcome a reprieve so everyone could get power back on first. Looking forward to the next update!
BUBBA UR DRUNK, u dont remember 20 plus inches on easter n ky, and jusst seveal in lexington before.
in 87 the storm in late march early april i cant remember exact date easter/se got hammered while central on up got just a few inches.
ur mind is wondering in ur old age.
look back at past snowstorms and at the difference in ACCUMALATIONS over just a few miles.
the only way we get a big one is a tight rope storm, meaning getting WRAP AROUND off the atlantic.
hey it may miss but i feel good for my part of the state.
teacher D i take it u are a tea sipper and speigal trunk show type person, that ok though.
I mean u dont know what tennis is, but i bet u know what BRIDGE is though.lol
seriously TEACHER D i hope all uis well up there in cater county.
stay warm and be safe. anothet good band of snow moving in, might get sa inch out of it.
Rolo, your on edge today. lol
Hopefully this thing plays out good for us snow starved people down in Knox and Clay Co. We don’t get too many of these old school scenarios, and let’s not waste it.
i think for most of ky this storm is a miss, maybe parts of eastern ky get some light snow, if every model has shifted might as well can our chances for the big one
I am on my toes BOBT, I love a little rednecking, I like to have fun with all the posters.
to much stress in this world not to have a little fun.lol
ITS TIME!!!
rolo…what does the billygoat have to say about this next storm?
I GUESS THIS MEANS I FINALLY WOKE UP FROM MY DREAM!!!!!:(
thoughts from around the weather world, on the storm. or no storm..
TRACK CONTINUES TO GO EAST TO THE COAST…
Morning Big Daddy..
The operational models continue to adjust the storm track east which I think is interesting given the trend of the winter. If you take the track of the storm now, the axis of the heavy snow would go from Atlanta to Winston to DC to Trenton to Albany. It’s a great track now to dump heavy snow in DC and Baltimore and not so for NYC and Boston which would mix with rain to snow. In any case, it’s just the trend of the models overnight and I still think the track is more favored to go from New Orleans to Charlotte to Albany.
Let me just stress, we are going through the normal model changes on the track. They will go west and they will go east, but by Sunday, we should have a general consensus on the track of the storm. In my mind, anyone from I-95 west to Nashville up to Detroit is fair game for snow…
from: H.M. at accu.
Apologies for the misspelling in my comment a while ago. I had just gotten up, and did NOT have my glasses on. One word, I can handle. but, geez….and I was a journalism,a nd broadcasting major ing college, too.;)
I agree with others on here. At this point you have to take a wait and see approach to this thing, as we are almost 3 days out.
Rolo, I know you have a good feeling about this one, and I hope it pans out for all of us! But, I won’t get excited until it is closer. As I have said before, that way, I won’t be disappointed. And BubbaG, I really hope that everyone gets power back soon, although I know it will be a while for many. I do not wish any misery on those who are going through this ice storm aftermath. I have seen what it does, and I would not wish that on anyone. You guys are in my thoughts and prayers, but I can’t help but be hopeful for a good snow for those of us who have missed out on just abour everything but rain this winter. Please don’t be mad at me over that. I am only being honest.
And as I have said before, (especially now) its a good thing that we do NOT control the weather. God speed to all of you.
Talk to you later. Waiting for the next update, Chris, Hoping it is still good news for us in the south/southeast parts of the state.
Actually I am a football/basketball/baseball type person.. you know? Real, actual sports that takes athleticism…
LOL, I’m just kidding with ya rolo, but I still don’t think we’ll get hit bigtime… Doesn’t mean I don’t want it, just that I don’t think it will happen…
Tim, don’t go there yet. Give it time.
Well given our winter track..IF the models say today the storm has moved TOO FAR EAST for us…LITERALLY EVERY storm this winter has IN THE END trended west…SO.that being said…if now by the models saying its a no storm for us..maybe by the time monday does arrive, it will have taken the normal winter WESTWARD trend back to put us back in the ball game…(GRASPING FOLKS, GRASPING AT ANYTHING THAT DOES OR EVEN DOES NOT MAKE SENSE!!)
so maybe a model trend east is a good thing given our overall winter track record..for westward biased storms.
Here in Carter County it it STILL pouring down the snow… We have added almost 2 inches on top of the mess we already had…
From the looks of the radar it’s supposed to keep snowing til noon, we may get 3 inches today! WOW! This clipper has certainly over achieved, much like last Sunday’s clipper…
Well, the models will go back and forth. But what better time to get kicked but when you are down. I think its too soon to be a naysayer or to celebrate. But we should be very cautious. Every needs to calm down. The models will probably jump west, then east, then back again. But the potential is there for a bad situation. What we should focus on instead is being prepared instead of becoming bitter and attacking each other.
Yes, I agree, however we shall see if the trend is real come the 12z and 18z runs…. I am awaiting the new NAM to see what it shows.
HUGE FLAKES of FLURRIES flying around down here nothing to accum. though…
although it did snow JUST ENOUGH to make KNOX CO. turn the busses around this morning and go back home certain areas was getting some moderate snowshowers…so as of right now my kids get a 3 day weekend..yeah..:(.. not to mention if the storm hits monday…they MIGHT go back to school by spring break..LOL…
that is correct everyone on this blog always freaks out when they make a move statewide will have nice accum
I agree… Whatever happens let’s get along. If we get 20 inches we’ll get 20 inches, if we get a dusting we’ll get a dusting… Only one person knows the ANSWER to that, and it’s not Bailey 😉
It’s the man upstairs…
I could’nt agree more.
Good Morning everyone! We have sunny skies with 30* this morning.Had a few flurries a little while ago but stopped now.Rolo…am I going to get snow from the new storm?? I really hope so….I know…I’m crazy….NO…just Snow Starved!!!!have a great day everyone…and stay safe.
Looks like the trend east may be right after all…….. NAM shows slight east shift and precip slower to come up….
I’m wondering about Crystal, has she posted on here lately …. or is she still without power?
Well, The latest HPC QPF trended it west, sooooo I guess I will wait for the new GFS models, and the new HPC QPF forecast….. Can anyone here actually read the Euro and give me an idea of what the new one says?
I agree with the man upstairs 100%
Good morning bloggers,
I posted some information last night but it was very late and many of you may have missed it. I know that alot of people have been desperately trying to find generators. My company in Paris (Oasis Tents and Rentals) currently has 5 small (1000 watt) generators available. Normally they are $30 per day, but as I indicated last night, they would only be $15 to our blogger friends. I am not trying to take advantage of a bad situation, but help out a little while still running a business. If anyone is interested, please blog me back or you can leave an e-mail at crhlex@aol.com or oasisevent.com. Hang in there everyone.
WINTER STORM EMOTIONAL ROLLERCOASTER
RIDE:
WEdnesday-starts the storm talk in full force…everyone (in s.ky)is on cloud 9 or maybe 10…
Thursday- EVERYONE is in full storm mode alerts..talking,BLizzards, snow drifts, snow over a foot!!!…emotionally about to EXPLODE!
Friday morning- WAS it a bad dream?, not so good looking today, storm shifts east, everyone gets bitter, someone blew the cloud right out from under us, and now were FALLING AT AN ALARMING RATE!!!.. Somberness sets in..anxiety, hoping and praying the next set of model runs are showing a westward trend..dispair,the storm that could have been hang over sets in..
Saturday-??? could be..:(..
…….or it could be..:)..!!!!!
I just hope the man upstairs is watching out. I have been displaced since Tuesday, living off the good will of the rescue shelters and then my soon to be father-in-law. This storm has been a rough one on me. But I grew up tough in a holler in eastern Kentucky, so I can handle it 😉
No love from the NAM, placed the low further east.
I’m ready to call this one a WELCOME dud.
I still think today could be 😀 by the time the day ends
Sounds like a good deal to anyone that needs one.
When was the last time we WANTED a westward trend? If Atlanta gets a big snow I will scream!!!
How in the world do they shift west all winter (for a number of winters now), and when KY is in the sweet spot go east. Hopefully it will change, but if not, maybe KY is just not located in a good location. We may have just gotten extremely lucky in the years of decent snowfall. Keep us updated.
I’m just hoping we get the now predicted fifties on Sunday. We need to melt the ice. I’m now housing much of my extended family, who are still without power. Let’s get the melt going, then deal with whatever Monday may bring.
Saw a report on CNN this morning from Leitchfield in Grayson County. They are desperate over there.
A very welcome dud at that.
I love snow as much as everyone else. But, we just don’t need it right now.
Can’t wait for Bailey to give us a little hope… The weatherchannel was still talking up the big storm this morning, showing Kentucky as one of those that will be hit… That could be a bad sign.
Jeez…lay off the “Enter” key a little. Try single spaced paragraph form, you might like it.
I hope Chris sheds some LIGHT on this DARKENING SUBJECT SOON…
Some of the OTHER forecasters out there this morning, have completely shifted their ideas on the track now…GETS TOTALLY ON MY NERVES.. and I’ll leave it at that..Its funny, as chris has said so many times…how some will jump on EVERY MODEL WAFFLE…well some have done a COMPLETE 180 since yesterday…CRAZY…
Just got back from Snowshoe and boy did you guys take a hit! We got about 5-6 inches of snow and maybe a 1/4 inch of ice but had excellent boarding conditions with powder on several sessions!
This Winter looks a little bit more like the Winter’s of my youth! Snow to ice to snow and then a big snow on top of it all! Don’t be caught off guard by this Monday system! Prepare now and you’ll be set… wait and you may pay the price. Maybe this is the year we begin our shift back to more traditional Winters! Then again, maybe not! Drive safe!
I agree somewhat… But, it hasn’t just been one model waffle, it has been many model waffles this morning… All tracking eastward…
Intermittent snow showers (wet snow) in Morgan County….has accumulated another inch….showers still coming.
Have fingers crossed for Monday-Wednesday—bring on the “B” 🙂
I hunkered down during the ’93 storm and have told my 10 & 12 year old about it, BUT they think I’m exaggerating 🙁
I wish just once they could see a HUMDINGER in KY.
Well in OTHER weather related news, I did see briefly where a Volcano was getting ready to EXPLODE in ALASKA..
Well don’t look at the 12z GFS. according to it its WAY EAST and you can kiss it good bye..lol “Baby Come Back”
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2009/01/30/ky.ice.storm.wave this is the link to the story on Leitchfield. very sad. and I got a snow storm right now. HEAVY snow
That is still the 6z
But it’s not one waffle, it’s three straight runs.
eastward trend continues with a model consenus of 1-3 inches with a sharp cutoff over the northern part of the state. however the forecasts for snow several days out on the last storm in indy were about the same and they got 6-10. still hope
SONG OF THE DAY..
“Stormie Come Back, You Can Blame It All On Me…. JUST GIVE ME A BLIZZARD WITH ABOUT TWENTY!”
?
Wow, yeah, the 12Z GFS puts it way out in the ocean.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_090l.gif
there ya go sunshine
I may be wrong, but i TOTALLY disagree with the gfs on that track, it may go far enough east to miss us, but I dont think it goes that far…How do you go from the east side of the mnts. to off the eastern seaboard in a couple of model runs…something just isnt panning out right…it dont make sense..but HEY AT THIS POINT NOTHING MAKES SENSE!!!!!!!!
Teacher D…. LOVE IT !! BUT INSTEAD OF THE SONG OF THE DAY…ITS THE SONG OF THE DECADE FOR MY BACKYARD!!!!
this is just like the storm last week on friday gfs was all over the place EVERYONE CALM DOWN IT WILL GO BACK WEST GEEZ!!!!! CJUST QUIT LOOKING AT IT TILL TOMMOROW CHRIS WOULD TELL YOU THE SAME THING
No prob. 🙂
Wow, is all I can say. I started to ask if anyone thought that the low may move off the coast. Hey, if the low is east of the mountains and trends east,and when it’s west of the mountain it tends west, will we ever win? I’ll give it a few more runs, but if this one misses I’m cursing any type of winter talk from here on out. Bring on Spring and bring it fast.
It is snowing here in Ashland, and has been for a long time. We’ve looked to have picked up at least 2 additional inches already. Looking at the radar, it looks like we’re going to pick up at least 1 more before it’s done. Interesting, indeed. :O)
I just saw the 7 day planner on TWC. and I dont know if they have’nt updated their maps yet or what..but they still have ky. in snowshowers on Mon. and east ky. in SNOW on tue..and snow show. wed…so I’m sure that will change too if the models continue to trend east…
they are talking even accum. snows in ATLANTA GA…
I KNOW ONE THING IF ATL…GETS ACCUM. SNOWS AND IT MISSES US…WELL MY WIFE MAY HAVE TO FIND A GOOD REHABILITATION CENTER OR MENTAL HOME TO SEND ME TO..BECAUSE I WILL BE MORE THAN OVER THE EDGE BY THEN…LOL..LOL…..
QUIT FREAKING OUT IT WILL COME BACK THE GFS IS GOING WACKO JUST LIKE LAST WEEKS STORM ON FRIDAY IT WASS ALL OVER THE PLACE SO QUIT FREAKING OUT IT WILL COME BACK TOMMOROW!!!!
I specifically remember last year many times when GFS showed tracks on storms just like what it shows today, and almost every time it ended up correct. This means the east coast gets slammed, and Kentucky gets nothing.
Shane, The Joe and Traci I asked you about…are my kids! lol It was really strange yesterday, Traci was saying that a Shane Smith was saying something about a Winter Storm. I told her there was a Shane Smith that was on a weather blog I read. Sure enough one in the same. lol The world is a smaller then we think.
NO CHANCE FOR SNOW IT LOOKS LIKE
some people do remember not all of us are from Lex 😉
I can’t handle people jumping ship, then climbing aboard only to jump once again. This is crazy. The models tend to be wrong this far out, the storms always trend west, but first bad serious of model runs this far out, people jump off. One good looking model run, people jump back.
Come on, make plans on what to do if the worst happens and just live life till then people. Snow isn’t worth bad blood.
I see that there is a good chance of getting something. That may range from a few inches, to a thumping, to a strong series of rain storms. All of these would be bad for much of the state.
It would be classic if the one time a westward trend would actually help us, it stays east…
The bad thing is that numerous models are jumping ship. If this one misses, let just bring in the warmth of spring. Start looking for a forecast of warmer weather instead of missed snow chances. CB is the best and even he was excited about how all the models were agreeing with us getting hammered. How less than 24 hours later these same models are in agreement for nothing, I do not know. Maybe we just live in a bad place for snow.
If you guys want, I can take one for hometeam. I will go out of KY for the week and we are sure to get slammed!
I don’t think the models will tell us much until around Sunday anyway. That’s when I’ll buy more milk and bread or paddles for my row boat!
lincoln…im not freakin out..just having fun …:)…drama,drama,drama,..thats what its all about isnt it…lol…
Agree … we are still a little to far out to have our heads hang down. From the years being on here looking at the models ect , I have noticed it is like 36hrs before we really get a grasp on what’s going to happen.
Kinda like a Nascar race .. you see what position your driver is located and he/she goes and gains 10 positions .. then looses a few then comes back but then something throws them back a few more but MIGHT come back with a top 10 top 5 or even end up in the winners circle.
( Whoops maybe I should had used horses as an example at Keenland .. lol .. just figured some here watched Nascar )
anyways .. the 12z on the gfs loop throws it out to far but lets see come Saturday afternoon on what it does. I know the Majority of us is wanting it to come back into play. 😉
GFS Loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml
NAM short term loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml
The sun is out at my house in Lexington…and the temp is about 30…let the melting commence…and bring on spring.
Forgot to ask. What year was it when we were supposed to get a dusting and then we got a bundle of snow here in Central Kentucky.
That was pretty cool to wake up to.
i already bought my bread and milk!!!!crap lol
I’m with Rolo.
searching the blogs this noon time
jb @accu says this:
FRIDAY NOON
GFS NOW TOO FAR EAST.
It appears the model is in its usual day 3-5 mode as it has shifted too far east ( in my opinion) one can see its feedback problems with its difference with the 72 hour UKMET over Texas ( GFS weaker) and over Illinois (GFS stronger) creating a flatter look already then. Until I see evidence that its actually right, it looks wrong with its eastward ideas.
Besides, its not like it hasnt done this before in this period.
Of course there is always the chance that this is the time it will be right 3-4 days out… So we can watch.
I did like its 6z run btw as far as the track I do think this will have some snow in the big cities of the east, but the heaviest snow should be west of them It is an exciting looking situation though, and one that in one fell swoop, could put people now below normal for the date in snowfall to above normal for the date.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12096.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12108.gif
Ensembles show it like that then just make it take off really fast up the coast.
yea, the gfs is a little confused right now with things, i mean this trend would mean flurries along i95 meaning this thing is way out to sea, eastern maine may be the only people seeing snow from this in the end
Rolo almost forgot that one, it was in early April and we got 16 inches here in Lawrence County. The funny part was it was 80 degrees the day before and we were fighting forest fires and the next day BOOM!
When does the new Euro come out?
1998
The title sounds ominous, doesn’t it? I use a title like that in one of my forecaster training sessions where a storm looked good on paper (seemingly deserving gradiose attention) days in advance but in the end did not have a big impact on the weather where first expected.Yesterday, the GFS operational run, the ECMWF and other models all showed a substantial storm sweeping northward or northnortheastward through the eastern part of the country. Heavy rain was shown near and east of the storm track with heavy snow to the west. Since then, most models have trended eastward.
We have seen that before. In fact, last week the GFS had this week’s storm going exactly where it wound up. However, a couple of days later it trended south and east, and that raised hopes for snow in the Middle Atlantic states. Then, however, once the storm started taking shape, models trended back to the original west of the Appalachians track. Will that happen again? I don’t know. On argument for that is that the late weekend warmup in the east will put the region on the warm side of a front that only slowly moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It would be natural for a storm to follow that front, taking a track over or west of the mountains. On the other hand, we don’t see any big high pressure area to the north of this storm, so all the strengthening is supposed to come from a still unproven upper air short wave that will plunge toward the Gulf states this weekend. If the resulting storm is slow to develop, the whole thing may just be like a cold front for the Appalachians and perhaps much of the Middle Atlantic region. The storm would not take shape until it out to sea, and might then only hit eastern New England with a lot of precpitation and wind. On the video, when I look at the ensemble forecasts from last night, you wll see one solution that looks just like that (in fact, it suggests no major storm anywhere in the East). However, the same ensemble set includes members that look ominously stormy for a many places.
Henry Margusity may or may not include this in his story, but he mentioned a data factor that could impact the computer models (but we have not verified this is the case today). There is a big volcano erupting in Alaska, and planes are probably being re-routed to avoid the plume of ash, etc. that can damage engines, etc. Those aircraft are equipped with weather monitoring instruments, and that data is very useful in regions where other types of data are not available. (The area affected is in or near the area where a lot of the traffic flies between Asia and North America. If the the weather system that will either cause or prevent the alleged storm for next week is over an area with poor data now, the numerical models have no way to handle it properly.
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Abrams&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Abrams/archives/2009/01/the_post_groundhog_day_storm_of_2009.asp
The story above was from a blog on Accuweather.
Anyone in Pike Co getting any snow? Radar shows us covered up but there doesn’t seem to be anything coming down here where I am.
belski said if storm doesnt shift west tommorow its over mountains could get a few inches
Still snowing in Lexington…has been since 8 a.m.
sorry folks no snow
i thought it was OLD SCHOOL
Fact of the matter is… we are 3 days out and the models are not ALL going to bomb that bad 3 days out. The track of the low might change some, but it’s not going to go up the spine of the Apps. Therefore, we will have very little snow in the Bluegrass Monday-Tuesday. Oh well….
I live around the Phelps area, and it’s snowing here.
Why don’t we wait till the night runs before we call this off.
Does it seem to be sticking?
Rolo, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Don’t say that!!
i think it will come back
Come on rolo you throw in the towel awfully easy i never thought you were a quiter
What part of Lexington do you live on? On Nicholasville Rd. it hasn’t stopped snowing since 8. The north and south are totally different sometimes.
I believe this was a similar setup to the dusting.
No. There was some snow on the ground earlier this morning, but it’s all gone now.
In Carter County visibilities are WAY DOWN!!! Driving is highly advised against, we have had 2.5 inches this morning with .5 inch of that coming in the last 20 minutes… It is flat out pouring right now… Wrecks all over I-64 with one reported fatality…
Rolo coming over to my side of the road now…
Rolo, I knew it was too good to be true, coming that quick from you! ;)JK
But not surprised. That seems to be our luck down here. NO, not jumping ship, bacause I hae one foot on the pier still. NOt getting excited until Chris tells me to, or not.
Dusting as in dusting….or dusting as in 2 foot of snow like we had before in Lexington?
Did anyone see these 3-5 inches some places in Eastern and NOrtheastern Ky are getting today? It pouring the snow as hard or harder than it was the night before the ice storm… This is incredible right now, I’m imagining this is what could’ve been Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday… ONly for a longer pd. of time…
THAT WAS NOT ME POSTING THAT FOLKS, BAILEY GET ON THEM HARD.
AGAIN ROLO HAS NOT POSTED SINCE 9 OR SO THIS MORNING.
THE REAL ROLO JUST GOT BACK HOME.
ONCE AGAIN, it is flattern to be copied like that, but I NEVER POSTED THE NO SNOW POST.
We’re still going to get snow is SE Kentucky, maybe just not the 10-12 inches.
Hasn’t the canadian trended west a little from the last run?
I’m gettin that snow right now, have been since 9:00 this AM
If GFS pans out then we will have as much snow as we got today which was none for knox
So what do you think Rolo? Will SE still get snow? I believe we will.
Reminds me of a song that Eminem put out Slim Rolo would the real rolo please stand up please stand up LOL
ok today song,
patience by GnR
ITS TIME!!!!
yes LES I myself still on board.
tomm evening runs of the models will tell the tell.
Iam not afraid to jump off the snow wagon, but I just dont see no reason to yet.
ANDY that is some good stuff.
I really wish you guys could see this snow I am getting right now, visibilities down to 1/4 mile for the last 20 minutes…
Rolo, I believe we will, too. The models jump here and there all of the time.
2 ft
Real Rolo, is there any reason beside past trends with the models- too far east- that we should hold out any hope for snow in central / southeast Ky? The models have moved the Low WAY east- a seemingly sad thing…I’m looking for some hope!
As much as I really would like to see more snow next week, I think I would like to see my buddies to the far East of me (most of you here, sounds like..lol)to get this next batch of ‘snow love’…
We’ve yet to be without power onmy street in Bardstown, but I just heard that 14,600 Salt River RECC customers in the 4 county area here are still out, w/ 6500 of those here in Nelson Co, and sadly enough…even with added manpower from other areas of the state and out of state, they really don’t expect many of those to be back on line before late next week, possibly not before the end of NEXT weekend…this includes my uncle who is suffering from Liver Cancer & awaiting a Donor…we told them to come on into our place & stay,but their roads are too bad to even attempt driving. I do hope it swings just far enough west to give you guys suffering asnow drought to get it, tho. You’ve waited long enough!:)
cant put any stock in models right now, this time tomm they should start to focus in on storm.
tomm evening runs is when we will start to see things take shape.
they can say what they want, but I expect the western trend to happen with this as well. so models showing far east track right now doesnt bother me one bit.
IM THE MASKED ROLO THATS RIGHT I DID IT WHY YOU ASK? TO PUT FROWNS ON MANY FACES MUAH MUAH LOL. NO REALLY I DID IT IM SORRY ROLO.
well then I ask CB not to put u in timeout then, cause that what happens when u impersonate a other poster lincoln.
that ok though, I forgive u. nothing wrong with a little fun.
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