Good Monday morning everyone! We have now upgraded to WINTER STORM ALERT for an increased threat for significant snow and ice accumulation from late this evening through Tuesday across much of the state.
It’s the storm we have been tracking for several days now. I will be getting specific with numbers later today. For now… here is my impact map…
The area under the HIGH IMPACT is the area that will see the most snow and ice accumulation. The impact will be smaller the farther south you go. Still… there is likely to be some wintry precipitation in the low impact region for a time very early Tuesday morning.
Here are the latest model snow forecasts…
NAM
GFS
Once again… don’t get caught up with the exact placement of those totals and concentrate on the trend and overall placement. Those maps do NOT show where sleet and freezing rain will be falling! That wintry mix will be felt into parts of southern Kentucky as well.
The NAM is trending colder and this is a trend to watch for as the cold that is coming is impressive and will likely be UNDERPLAYED by the models. Any further trend toward colder… even by less than 1 degree… will mean much more snow and ice farther south.
I am expecting this front into central Kentucky by early to mid afternoon and into extreme eastern Kentucky by late afternoon or early evening. Temps will drop some 30 degrees in just a few hours. Track the front with these updating temp maps…
Rain ahead of the front will change to freezing rain and sleet right behind the front. As deeper moisture pulls northeastward into the state in the wee hours of Tuesday… snow will take over in areas from AROUND I-64 and north with some ice still possible. A wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow will be in areas just to the south of that with that trend getting all the way into southern Ky by Tuesday morning.
Temps Tuesday will be tricky as the northern half of the state stays at or below freezing for most of the day as southern Kentucky warms to above freezing. By Tuesday night… this warmer air will begin to work to the north and SHOULD be able to switch most areas over to rain. I say SHOULD!
Track the wintry mix here…
Travel will become treacherous late this evening through Tuesday across much of the region. I would expect Winter Storm Warnings to be issued for much of central and eastern Kentucky.
Updates will be issued as needed through the day and through the length of this Winter Storm. Check back for the latest and take care.
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Thanks Chris, you are awesome. Wind is still kickin here in Nicholasvilel. I gotta get to bed, eveyone stay safe! 😛
Thanks chris for the late post.. will check in tomorrow with ya
Chris, MJ, WXman, anyone…Dave L and I would like to know which map to click on in the GFS and NAM. Coarse, fine, medium, 006, pcpn…which one of these give the pictures you guys put up on here.
PLEASE help, because I don’t know which to choose.
ok I need some prayers answered, let most of moidture get in and out quick, I got a sink hole that develop and I cant handle no more RAIN right now.
going to try and get it fill in today before this stuff hits.
but for one time I HOPE CB and others MISS THE FORCAST. need some dry condition.
godspeed
this morning music is
CHOICES by the POSSUM.
Thanks Chris…keep us posted.
Should be an interesting day. Anyone else lose power last night?? We did several times.
GM All. Thanks Chris!! Will this wind continue until the front arrives?
Hope you get your hole filled Rolo
Rolo….I think it may be a bit too late, rain already moving in. Sorry bud! If I wish I could help in some way! If I could I would!
Amy…we here in Versailles lost power for close to two hours early afternoon yesterday.
Didn’t lose power last night, but looks like I’m not outta the woods yet, I’ve been put in the winter storm warning……1-4 inches of snow and/or ice expected, YUCK!
Chelle…Let’s hope we stay on the snow end of this storm! We had all that ice and lost power before. Luckily we’re on the same grid as Kroger and they were the priority to get the electric up and going back then, Yesterday losing it for only two hours was enough for me!
When we got home from church yesterday, we had lost power, too. I have a self setting clock or else no one would be up and at it this morning. My guess would be that my kiddo would like to smash the self setting clock!!!! LOL
Hey Patty I agree think SNOW! lol IT is awesome outside here right now, feels like spring. I just went out to put my daughter on the bus, and Oh my goodness, didn’t want to come back in! Amazing how quickly things can change! 🙂 Everyone stay safe. I’m going to have to dig out my gas cans, just incase. Thank goodness gas is cheaper now! I can kind of afford to buy extra gas! lol
Morning gang..!
Rolo, that’s my favorite song My George, but did you know that he didn’t write it..? it’s his life story no doubt…
When is the storm front supposed to arrive in NW Lexington…? I want to be outside when this thing hits… It’s going to be amazing folks…
…
Good Morning — Windy!
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
506 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008
…WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT…
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-
070>074-076-151815-
/O.UPG.KLMK.WS.A.0004.081215T1800Z-081216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.W.0004.081215T1700Z-081216T1200Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
METCALFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG…
BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…ELIZABETHTOWN…FORT KNOX…
MOUNT WASHINGTON…SHEPHERDSVILLE…LOUISVILLE…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…MORGANTOWN…
BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…
RUSSELLVILLE…BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…
EDMONTON
506 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008 /406 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008/
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY
TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING…EFFECTIVE FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM LOCAL MEDIA…THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…OR THE WEB AT: WEATHER.GOV.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW…
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
$$
The one I use is “coarse” because it’s a smaller image and you can toggle through the charts faster. If you are looking at the gov. site…the GFS will show you 850mb charts and 2M (surface) charts which is cool. Unfortunately, they don’t have the NAM 2M charts on that site. You’ll have to look elsewhere for those.
Well, they pulled the trigger. Winter Storm Warning! Woohoo!
Honestly though, I do think this has the potential to be a pretty bad storm. I predict that the aftermath will be on the evening news…similar to how parts of New England were last week. 🙁
Remember not to drive on the ice if you don’t have to.
Good morning! You asked the same question I wanted to know, Vinny. When will it get here! I don’t like ICE!
Chris, MJ, and everyone – can you please update us as soon as you can, whenever you can. I have loved ones who have to be out in this mess and I worry so about them.
I bet the blog hits go through the roof with this storm. I know I will be checking in every time I can today. In fact, I’ll probably get a pot of coffee, plop down here at the laptop, and finish my Christmas cards while I am camped out here today! LOL!
Everyone – PLEASE stay safe! Thanks to all who give us updates, too!!
Merry Christmas!
guess what? I’m under a winter storm warning!!!
golly gee whizzers
it’s gonna snow and ice in Morehead tonite,
have ya’ heard??
Well ANdy and I continue to struggle with the heatmizer…LOL..””” EVERY”””
county in the state of kentucky is under either a WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADV. with the exception of ((( 5 ))) southern counties. KNOX,WHITLEY,BELL,McCREARY,and WAYNE..So I guess we’ll watch you all get the wintry weather while set on the side lines.:(…
……………………….
Man talk about screwed up weather.. I was checking the point/click for Lex. metro area.. rain to snow/sleet today about 3″ accum. then back to freezing rain/rain tom., then rain and 50 on wed.. that sounds like ONE BIG MESS!
………………………………
DOWN here in the TROPICS of southern ky.
forecast is for rain. 50’s today, rain tonight about 36, rain tom. 48, then a warm surge back up to around 60 by wed.,and thurs….shewwwy…wake me up when its all leveled out…LOL..
TIM why would u want that mwess anyway, i wish it wasnt going to rain.
anybody wishing for this storm to hit,NEEDS HELP!!!!
I think that schools in the warning area will have an early release.
The front has BLASTED through paducah-32*. and owensboro-36.. while Hopkinsville went from 53* to 42* in the last hour!!! amazing stuff for those who end up with it..
That’s exactly why I’d like to know the timing of the front…
If needed, I will go get my baby from school… Ok, she’s 15, but she’s still my baby… lol
…
Thanks, WXman. I appreciate that, it helps to know what I’m looking for.
Vinny… I’d go get her if I was you.. better be safe than sorry..Temps. seem to be dropping like a ROCK behind this front, and it doesnt look like its all that far away from the LEx. area…be safe on the ice up there you guys
I HATE WHEN THEY DECIDE TO SEND KIDS TO SCHOOL..KNOWING THAT DANGEROUS WEATHER WILL HIT BEFORE ITS TIME TO LET OUT!!
ok mitch , vinny, tommy, chris…..as u know im in between morehead & ashland & I know we go by a different weather office, but on the map above chris has our county under high impact, why is morehead under a winter storm warning & we are under a wwx advisory? Makes no sence , looks like to me were gonna get hit hard..any thoughts???
megan..its just because Carter counties weather comes from Charleston. More than likely you’ll see what they see weatherwise..BUT! you seen what happen with the last storm, 10 or 12 miles meant a dusting verses 6″ of snow…so you just never know.
I find that clicking on the “loop” is best, because once it loads you can stop the looping and use the controls to click and go through frame by frame in 6 hour periods without have to keep going back on your browser. It’s easier that way.
The models are already behind the ball. NAM, for instance, had the rain moving into Louisville at 7:00 this morning. Well, really the rain was moving into Lexington strong by then. So the models are already a bit slow…at least the NAM and GFS are. This front is SERIOUS. It’s about 10 in Indy…54 in Louisville! Enough for a ‘flash freeze’ around here.
So in other words… Megan, we folk in Carter County are going to get hit hard… I just hope the ice is minimal. My wife works in Olive Hill, Ky and don’t get off until 8:30-9:00 tonight…
derrick, whos ur wife??
WXman:
Timing for the potential “flash freeze” in NW Lexington..?
…
I’m in Morehead and I’ve heard. I’d say Slone’s won’t have a single gallon of milk or loaf of bread, or eggs left. I guess everyone will be making French Toast.
I wonder if we’ll end up with anything in Flatwoods(Greenup Co)? Everywhere says something different…We usually end up with nothing anyway, be nice to get some snow but no ice!
ok, so Im trying this again. I’ve had trouble posting lately, has anyone else?
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
Just don’t let it ICE! 🙂
I’m thinking the models are about 75 miles behind…and they show the nasty wx in here tonight…so probably realistically we’re looking at about late afternoon here when it gets rough. It’s hard to pin down an exact hour. But I’d say late afternoon.
Thanx WXman..!
Doesn’t seem to be alot of frozen precip. on the radar right now…I’m guessing that it will increase? Where is it going to come from. It looks like the precip is outrunning the cold. anyone???
What is timing for changeover in the Lexington area? Will it affect schools getting kids home this afternoon?
yay, I can post again. I don’t know what the deal was with that. But Im glad to be back! 🙂
look at the temperature reports in Louisville. 55 at 6:56 AM, 46 one hour later.
well i hope we get more snow…..hey all my neck of the woods has been pretty plentiful with the snow…..last year we saw a 1.5feet in march…keep the snow coming….no ice though
not looking as bad as I see it right now, THANK GOD for everyone if its not.
cause nobody deserves alot of ice. scattered light snow might be towards end, but ther front is going to check up and move back north quickly with warm temps.
so really not a set up for any SNOW, so DRY UP PLEASE.
paducah is down to 29* with unknown precip…(frozen)
Hopkinsville is down to 38* from 53* just 2 hrs. ago with light rain.
well folks gotta be in a meeting at 11am. so I will check back later..hopefully someone will be getting snow by then.
Wow, I don’t know if i have ever seen a front with that kind of temp discrepancy.. Just Crazy.
Thank you so much, that helps tremendously.
On the GFS model is the freezing line in orange?
Looks like that out to the West around St. Louis that the radar is filling in with snow.
Thanks WXman. I live in Lexington too…wondering if the kids will get out early at this point. Thoughts?
Christy Jordan, her maiden name is Floyd. She works at the Kings Daugthers Family Care center over there…
So is it safe to say that it will be later this evening before any of this turns nasty for the Powell/Wolfe Co. area?
The front is supposed to slow over top of kentucky. The frozen stuff will thicken up and depending on where the stall actually happens will dtermine who gets hammered with rain…ice..or snow.
all weenies aboard!!! winter storm warning nice…that fronts insane
Go here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/model_s.shtml
Make sure you are on “surface graphics” at the top…not upper air. Then what you want is that first column…the one that says “10M wind”, etc. Click the loop…that will pull up the surface chart (it says 2M temps. at the top). The blue 0 line is the freezing line at the ground.
This is the only chart that truly matters in the Winter time. Because if the freezing line at the surface is north of us…nothing else matters.
Keep in mind that these are models, and not what is happening or WILL happen necessarily.
This chart:
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/icing/icing_nav.php?icg_type=FIP&height=max&fcst_hr=06
Seems to show heavy icing potential across all of central Kentucky valid 14:00 today (that’s 2:00 p.m.). So…it’s possible many schools will need to close early today.
Thanks, Chris. If it is going to be ice, I would just as soon it stay away. For you guys north of us, I REALLY hope you get mostly snow, and very little IF ANY ice. I would prefer that you get NONE.
Of course, we would like to get in on the snow action, but I do NOT wish an ice storm on anyone! I know you will keep us posted, so I will be checking back often, as I am sure everyone else will, too! Be safe, everyone.
well i have GOT to study and its killing me, the radar is filling in nice to the southwest across ok and arkansas and texas, tonight will be interesting in the short term that monster front is on our doorstep and should be pulling through early this afternoon,
Well, my coffee pot didn’t survive the power surge. We expect computers and tv’s to be vulnerable, but coffee pots??? :O LOL
Here in Madisonville (Western Kentucky) temp has fallen below freezing with light to moderate freezing rain.
The ice storm a couple of years ago was terrible. Didn’t have power for 5 days because of it. Hope that doesn’t happen again. I have a 3 year old now and don’t know if I could brave the cold in the house that long with her. We did last time, but it was COLD before the power came back on. I remember we pushed our deep freezer outside to keep the food frozen! ha!
Thanks again. That looks pretty definate that schools will be let out early today. All of my coworkers are saying…but the Lexington forecasters said this shouldn’t be much of anything…Lexington is right on the line. I didn’t get to watch this morning, but I believe Chris and it seems like to me…Lexington is more than just on the line. I am correct on this, right?
I don’t know why you are saying that southern Kentucky is the tropics. I went to Williamsburg Saturday and they had at least over an inch of snow and here in Corbin we had around 2.5 inches and my kids got to enjoy i for two to almost three days.
You can’t have snow seven days a week and we are by far living in the tropics.
WXman seems to think so. He said he thinks the Lexington area will get hit around 2 and they probably will let schools out.
CHECK IT OUT:
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/tafs/displayMetarsTafs.php
The front is passing through central Kentucky right now! Notice the wind shift between LEX and the eastern part of the state. Front should make it to southeast KY soon.
Temps. are tumbling fast!! Down to 40s now… 20s on the other side of Louisville…
Get that de-icer ready!
The front is passing through central Kentucky right now (10:00). Temps. are now tumbling fast…
Chris, Sure am missing the Bailey Blog here in Carlisle right now. I finally found this site, I’ll be checking back often for weather updates. Looks like its gonna get real nasty pretty fast.
Is it just me or is the rain breaking up? Seems like the closer it gets to Lexington the more it leaves?
Why doesn’t Jackson post thier discussions? I’ve been trying to find them…where are they?
Tim, You have already had a snow day so stop belly aching lmao! 🙂 🙂 🙂 If I get Ice I’ll send it your way to make ya feel special lol
I think you are hyping the flash freeze stuff here. You need air temps to drop below 28 in a short period of time for that to happen…and that is not even happening out to our west.
Another thing is that road temps across the state (central and east) are in the mid to upper 40s. There is going to be a 6-8 hour lag in road surface temps compared to the air temp. So I would not expect any re-freezing until this evening. Bridges and overpasses are a different story…they will likely develop some slick spots late this afternoon.
http://transportation.ky.gov/RWIS/maps/pavetemp.jpg
There is some skeptics of the pavement sensors, however, I have found them to be quite good in the past.
I’m not sure what it is doing in Lexington but it is pouring the rain in Powell Co. Hope the ice dosen’t follow suit.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/JKL/AFDJKL
Yep, precipitation behind the front is becoming more scattered. I don’t think we’ll be looking at that many problems this afternoon even though we cool to freezing. However, a second weather system will approach the region later this evening which will deposit snow/sleet and freezing rain across the region.
Try this Nate;
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
If that does not work, I’ll go click by click for you..
Dana
Wxman, is the orange stuff on the map the freezing rain?
the links helped me find it myself. Thanks
Peace
MJ..are you going to be on shift this afternoon/evening?
Yes that is ice (freezing rain) potential.
as chris said this will be a very high impact winter storm for lex. roads will very icy and travel will could become close to impossibile.
even the 12z nam is about 3-6 hrs to slow with the 32 line.
32 line will be @
10:30 owensboro
1:30 shelbyville
3:30 lexington
8:00 Jackson
Well, according to our forecast, our rain ws not supposed to start here until later this afternoon, but its been raining for a while already. While the temp says it is 61, that is a awfully cold rain falling, and the wind is cold, too.
Not that we are really expecting muchhere, but, I am wondering what impact this ic going to have for you guys who ARE expecting wicked weather. I really hope that school systems are keeping a very wary eye on this one, just in case. I used to drive a bus, and we got caught off guard a couple of times, mostly due to a timing issue from weather forecsters. (No pun intended, MJ. I respect your opinions. Just stating a fact.)
In any event, I have a daughter who is travelling from Columbia for an eye doctor appointment as I type, and I just want her to get back in case it does get nasty.
For those of you IN the warned area, please, please be extra careful out there, freezing rain can develop quickly, and gets treacherous in a hurry! Be safe, everyone.
Rolo, I hope you get your wish,(about the weather) and get your hole filled in. Afraid you are going to have to deal with rain, though…..
there is one area of precip over sw ky moving ne it should reach lex by 2:30 pm and possibiliy leave a light icing between 3:30 and 4:30 pm.
I’m thinking very similar to nws on amounts maybe some locally higher totals if NAM is correct.
most importantly this is a high impact winter storm roads will become very bad later on tonight making travel difficult at best. some minor power outages and trees coming down may occur as well where .25 ice falls.
Official Report: Christian county reports light glaze on trees and elevated surfacces.
Thanks Mitch! I appreciate it.
So the BIG threat is for tonight for Lexington? However, the 3:30-4:30 icing could get slick?
Nope…I’m off…but monitoring things from home.
Seems like the precip is stalling out over KY and snow is building up to the west of us in Arkansas and Missouri. If they cold can catch up to us here in Central Ky we might have the ingredients for something.
yea i got the hole pack in and filled up, now all i got to do is DIVERT the water if we get any heavy rain.
i got some cousins that are WORK HORSES, give them a big cold pop and something to eat and they will go to WAR for me.
and slip then a 50 spot as well.
I don’t think Lexington will start to ice up until after dark. Look out to the west…its been freezing there for about 4-6 hours and they are just now starting to report some freezing. The road surface temps across central and eastern KY are still in the mid to upper 40s. The roads will cool down more slowly than the air.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1109 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008
…WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW TONIGHT…
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM
CST/ TUESDAY…
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE
TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE
I figured CB would have updated by now….oh, and my students are taking a test. That is why I am able to keep up with the blog. I know, I’m a jerk.
Quick look at the 12Z NAM has the heavy precipitation band just along the Ohio river tonight. Thermal profiles show enough cold air in place for mostly snow with that across Southern Indiana and those counties near the Ohio River.
For areas along and just north of the Bluegrass parkway…the NAM is indicating more ice than anything. Thermal profiles put out quite a bit of freezing rain for Lexington…that got my attention.
The 12Z GFS on the other hand has the heavier band of precipitation across southern Kentucky…with only light amounts north of the Bluegrass Parkway.
Here is the lowdown on this…precipitation type will depend on how deep this cold air is. We know for sure that surface temps will be below freezing, but its the amount of warm air just off the surface that will determine the precipitation type.
I inadvertently cut that off- here is the full text, minus the header:
..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM
CST/ TUESDAY…
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE
TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE TUESDAY MORNING
RUSH HOUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM LOCAL
MEDIA…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…OR THE WEB AT: WEATHER.GOV.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW… SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
MJ…don’t you have a Ham radio license as well? Seems like I talked to you at a Hamfest in Bullitt county several years ago, and you showed me the Skywarn page you worked on…I think I still have it bookmarked somewhere. Anyway, does LMK take any Winter reports on amateur radio, or is that reserved for thunderstorm events?
Cold Front: As of 10am it has gone thru Casey, Lincoln, Boyle, Madison,Clark,Fleming and points west.
I know Chris is busy and probably getting ready to go on the air in a short time, but I would love to see an update. My daughter is supposed to stay late for cheerleading practice and I’m not sure if I should let her stay.
Has turned to freezing rain along the Ohio River counties up to Louisville
Yes, I am a licensed amateur radio operator and I did a spotter class over at the Hamfest a couple years ago. Sometimes they do take reports via radio…but it depends if they have the radio on and operators in the office. Not sure if that will happen tonight or not.
Best way to report is through e-spotter. That shows up immediately on our workstations when they are received.
Keep trying to post but keeps going to moderation. Tried several times, but nothing is working….
Here is alook at my radar with frontal placement. The blue line on the left is cold front at 10am.http://mjhdp.tripod.com/stormtracker/id15.html
You’re posting now MJ. Keep tryin would love to see if you have any new info.
Crystal, I wish you would check in I’m worry about you.
uhh cheerl;eading pratice or wreck on bad roads, uhh no brainer. she can pratice cheerleading tomm after it over.
get her home after school, it will be laste this evening before it gets bad in lex area.
going to be alot of dry time as well.
this is NOT GOING TO BE A HORRIBLE storm like some thought and wanted.
just not, now tonite after dark that scattered stuff in arky and stuff will cause some slick travel but not nothing we cant handle.
but im glad NWS put out the watches and warning, better safe than sorry.
Upon consulting the Magic 8 Ball, it at first was not sure, telling me to “ask again later”. After letting the Magic 8 Ball digest this question, I asked again. The answer: NO.
I am now sure, upon consulting the higher power, that it will not affect what time the kids get home…
Do you know what a logistical nightmare it is to let school out early? Come on. Get your bread and milk yet?
My first call on accumulations
Line from louisville through G’Town and upt through Ashland
3-6 inches of snow 1/4 inch of ice.
Line from Hartford through Nicholasville and through Olive Hill this includes Lexington.
1-2 inches of snow and sleet accumulation 1/2-3/4 of an inch of ice.
Line from Franklin through Mount Vernon through Louisa.
Not much snow and sleet accumulation an inch or less up to 1/2 inch of ice.
A line from Tompkinsville to Salyersville a glaze of ice .1 inches or less
Further south and east primarily rain.
I’ve looked at the 12Z NAM and GFS. Both models have a heavy precipitation band for tonight, but differ in their placement. In addition, the NAM is starting to show how shallow this cold air is. If the NAM is right, areas along and just north of the Bluegrass parkway would see quite a bit more ice than snow/sleet.
Thanks Rolo I was thinking the same but you know how teenagers are…lol But I would rather listen to the whining than drive on the ice.
I’ve looked at the 12Z NAM and GFS. Both models have a heavy precipitation band for tonight, but differ in their placement. In addition, the NAM is starting to show how shallow this cold air is. If the NAM is right, areas along and just north of the Bluegrass parkway would see quite a bit more ice than snow/sleet.
So… Is the storm dying down or what?
exactly sam, it may be fine to drive.
but it just one evening of pratice so she get over it.
be safe.
no storm is going to really explode on top of ky tonight like i have said from west tn into central ky be it sleet snow or freezing rain or all together its going to really come down in the pre-dawn hours tuesday
On that topic…you guys used to send out messages on the eSpotter system. I even got some last Winter with conference call info. when you were going to do those, etc. But there hasn’t been any communication through the eSpotter system from LMK since then that I can see. Is that something you guys still try to do if you get the time?
i do not think anyone sees 3-6 tyson, maybe 2” in far i71 region points nw but most of the state except se ky should se 1/2 to 1 inch of freezing rain overnight snow isnt really going to be the big concern, like i said some areas may get some but i think MJ is on to something with the shallowness of the cold, plus ky is very prone to overrunning precip events
plus ky is very prone to overrunning precip events…..much more prone than it is to 6 or 10 inch snowfalls
My First Call:
Western Ky from Paducah to Maysville: Light Freezing Rain to a glaze this afternoon. Overnight Freezing rain up to 1/2 inch mixed in with 4 – 6 inches of snow.
Bowling Green to Lexington to Ashland: Very light rain mixed with freezing drizzle this afternoon. Overnight much heavier precip starting out with 1/2 – 3/4 inch freezing rain mixed with 1 – 2 inches snow. Some power outages and trees down.
South of this line:
All rain this afternoon. Overnight rain mixed with sleet/freezing rain. 1/4 inch possible.
The conference calls are reserved only for media and emergency managers. We do not have a conference call system that could handle all the spotters.
Spotter Report: Hopkins County at 12:15pm freezing rain and snow patchy accum on trees.
http://www.accuweather.com things are really going to come alive tonight, dont bother plugging your christmas trees in just have a visible looped radar image and that will be enough to put you in the spirit. looks like some moderate rain band to push through central ky over the next few hours
Chris why don’t we do live blogging anymore??????
I have to agree with you, Rolo. Just not enough to work with here. A dry slot is bound to limit our wintry precip. It will jsut be a little slick out there tonight and tomorrow morning.