Good evening everyone and thanks for blogging! While our WINTER STORM THREAT continues across parts of Kentucky for Monday night and Tuesday. I want to show you just how powerful this MEGA front just to our west is. Take a look at this temp map…
That is nothing short of amazing. Temps are dropping by 30 to 40 degrees in just a couple of hours once the front blows through. This is what will deliver the arctic shot from west to east to us late Monday.
We continue to see all the signs for plenty of freezing rain, sleet and snow Monday night and Tuesday. Here is a look at the current watches and warnings…
More counties will be added to the advisory or watch/warning list later tonight. The silly criteria/timing stuff with the NWS offices in Wilmington, Oh and Charleston, WV are the only reasons we don’t have more. It is nothing more than bureaucracy getting in the way of public service!!
I am working once again tonight and will have a full update later so check back. It will probably be a little later than normal but it will be here when you wake up! 
Take care.
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Thanks for keeping us posted Chris. Is there any chance that SE KY might get on some winter weather love from this ?
like i said temps falling at incredible speed, wouldnt be surprised to see temps into mid twenties tommorow evening. lower????
This is one intersting front. Looking forward to see how far the cold air will punch to the south and east. I hope just snow–no ice.
Thanx CB..! Don’t know how you do it friend…
You must live weather 24/7..
BTW, how is Wynter doing..?
…
If it ain’t snow, I would rather get rain. Keep that ice out of Corbin. We’ll wait until next week’s front.
friend called in from evergreen, colorado earlier at 7500 feet, several inches of snow and temp -12 on his back porch!!!!!!! WOW knowing colorado foothills though tommorow may be 60 and sunny lol in that region of the country weather weenies thrive on the extremity that the climate can produce
Thanks Chris..I’ve been in moderation on the last two comments I’ve tried to post. We’ll see if this one goes through. I have bad news from Crystal to tell everyone.
Thanks Chris…I see your message, Patty.
The last comment went so I’ll try to tell you about Crystal. She emailed me and wanted everyone to know her belove cat Sylvester passed away. She was with him when he died. She’s very, very upset and wanted all her friends here to say a prayer for her and Sylvester. She’s not been able to post her self. I’m sure she’ll be able to now that the blog has been updated.
Crystal’s cat Slyvester Passed. Please say a prayer as she’s very upset.
0z NAM showing MAJOR snow and ice threat Monday night. It is also much colder with the snow and ice threat all the way into southern Kentucky. Upgrade LIKELY!!!!!
Thanks Willam…..on my end it says waiting moderation. I guess I’m the only one that doesn’t see them come through. Have all four shown up?
you da’ man…!!!!
ALL snow, NO ice…!!!
how ’bout them Steelers..? lol
…
Bring on the SNOW !!!!!
Can’t Wait
thanks Chris your the Best
Had some folks where I work asking for generators today..Wonder if they are thinking about ice fallout?? I say we will dodge the worst of it. Temps will stay just warm enough to avoid ice but snow may be a reality
I only see your last two messages, Patty. Chris: will this storm be worse than 2003?
Ok maybe I am just dense, but is there a difference in a WATCH and an ADVISORY. One lex channel has us in a watch the other an advisory. Open question for anyone! 🙂
temps do not hit 32 in lex untill tue eve on this run. they also hit 32 by the mon eve rushhour as well.
It would be hard to beat that storm… Lex area had 1.25-1.5″ of ice… if i remember correctly…
Hopefully, we will see more snow then ice this time..
Sorry, I’m not Chris, just giving my 2¢
…
patty, I saw all of them (crystals & yours)on the last post, and sent in my condolences.
Computers…blech! Mine has been giving me fits since last evening-thing is..it’s fine on everything, but when I get HERE, it freezes up on me??! Have I been bad or something??! lol 😉
chelle, I know that the NWS changed their ‘wording’ a little bit ago…something like,instead of saying “Snow Advisory” or Freezing Rain Advisory, they now say “Winter Weather Advisory”…something like that!!:)
Ok I have a question. How do I know which one of the links to click on here to see the model run?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
A watch is typically issued 36 to 48 hours in advance. A watch means that conditions are favorable for a particular weather event to happen. With a winter storm, that means that within 48 hours or so…more than 4 inches of snow in 6 hours or more than 6 inches in 12 hours is possible. It could also mean that more than 0.25 inches of ice accumulation is possible.
An advisory means that a particular weather event will occur but is not expected to meet warning criteria.
Winter weather advisories for snow can be issued for things like 1-3 inches of snow. Freezing rain advisories mean ice accumulations of less than 0.25 inches are expected.
We have a simplified winter weather advisory program now. See the link below for more information.
http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/scn08-40winterwx_simplification.txt
2003, That is the 3rd one I’ve had to go through. I am not looking forward to another one.
Give me Snow, Give me Rain
Please keep the Ice away.
FOR ANYONE.
But Vinny. If we get alot of snow, We can have a Snow ball fight across Leestown Rd.
That temp range is INCREDABLE!!! Missouri is showing single digits on one side and the 50’s on the other!
MJ………..Glad to see ya back!
Crystal, we just buried our cat, Shadow, this morning, she was 22 yrs old. She had been fine all summer, and she suddenly began failing this past week. We kept her comfortable, but realized we could do nothing more for her. She was our Queen, part of our family. My thoughts are with you. Thanks Patty for letting us know.
thanks for the update, Chris. So you are saying that even though we in the southern part of the state are not in any kind of watch that we may see some freezing rain type weather as well? Or is ours slated to stay a very cold just-above-freezing rain? I know that is what our local forecast is saying.
From your temperature maps, it appears that the temps will drop like a rosk in water when the front goes through.
I know you said you are working tonight, and have more “tweaking” to do on the forecast, but, if anyone on here could give me an inkling, I would sure appreciate it!
I, along with everyone else, will be faithfully watching the blog for more updates, and possible advisories. Just wondering if there is a possibility that we might wind up getting a freezing rain advisory out of this thing, too…
Any answers would be appreciated, and helpful. Thanks again in advance.
I’m guessing that from Chris’s comments, that each station has a different definition/protocol for the advisories/warning?
slashy/////////
MJ…Nice to see you back man. Having another pro met on the blog really makes things interesting. So my question for MJ or CB, latest model runs show possible ice/snow into southern KY. What’s your take on this and would it be enough for Louisville or Jackson to extend Watches.advisories from, say Bowling Green to SE KY?
thanks for the explanation, MJ. Like Marklex, I am glad to see you posting.
Patti, I didn’t get to see yoru messages. I am going to try and go back to the last post and look for them.
So, Chris, you think that southern KY might get in on this thing, too? (From your comment a few spaces up from this one.) Just wondering if that comes to pass, what we can expect here….IF it’s ice, hubby had better get ready to be a taxi service for his daughter and I!
great question, Russ! Same thing I want to know. where are you in the state?
Yes. LMK and JKL are in the Central Region of the NWS…while ILN and RLX are in the Eastern Region. There are some regional definitions and protocols for each region. Most of them are local and climatological in nature.
For instance, if you live up in Michigan, it would take 4-5 inches of snow to get an advisory. If you live in Montgomery, AL, 1/2 to 1 inches of snow would get you an advisory.
RLX and ILN’s advisory criteria are a little higher than KY’s due to the fact that they get more snow up there…from a climatological standpoint. While I agree with Chris’s statement on impact rather than criteria, some threshold needs to be set for advisories.
If we issued an advisory for every 1/2 to 1 inch snow, the public would grow weary of that and start to ignore them. To me, this appears to be happening with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.
I live in London..so I’m hoping for either a ton of snow or just plain rain…I can’t stand the thought of ice.
Also, that “other” station has their message in error. They say the Watch “goes into effect Monday afternoon”. That is NOT correct. The Watch is in effect NOW. Otherwise, this would be a Winter Storm Watch Watch…and that would be stupid.
This is why WKYT is the channel you need to be on.
MJ, Great responses and information today to a couple of posts. Good to hear from you.
the 0z nam is scary
It’s true. 00Z NAM has central KY below freezing at the surface from 3Z Tuesday until around 3Z Wednesday!! That could mean freezing rain here all day Tuesday!
If this doesn’t change, we’ll see an upgrade to Winter Storm Warning in the morning.
Yeah,
At 10pm, the temperature was 8 at Saint Joseph, MO, while in Poplar Bluff, MO it was sitting at 59! That’s a crazy strong front!
any pro’s wanna take a stab at the 0z nam? i mean could that really happen? thats insane qfp and surface 32 well south into tennessee, 0z nam would spell end of tue history final!!!!!!!!!
hey chris i am loving the chances for tomorrow. Central kentuckys first winter weather watch YAY!!! I hope this one dont fall through like many others do. But i am concerned with the ice threat. I mean its been like 6 years i think in feb tht we had the ice storm and i mean i dont want us to have another one like that. So i am hoping that we get cold enough to get all snow and keep the precip tht way. NO RAIN!! NO ICE!! LOL but yeah i can deal with a lot of snow! I would be happy with a good 3 inches. I mean tht isnt asking a lot when they get three feet up north in one blow. lol So what are the totals in a winter storm watch expected to be?
Well, I am in Somerset, and I would hope for snow, too. I’m with you …..NO ICE! I’d rather have a cold cold rain! But is looks like someone is going to get colbbered!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_048l.gif
those qfps totals sliced in half would spell warning criteria, this verified is a state of emergency. ashlyn warning is 4” of snow in 12 hrs or 6” in 24 hrs or 1/4” ice in any given time, anything under those totals yeilds a snow or winter weather advisory or freezing drizzle/rain adisory
Actually the spread is even bigger than that in MO: 5 degrees in the far northwest of the state and mid sixties down in the boot heel! 😮
I am hearing tomorrow afternoon and then tomorrow night for this to hit. Can someone tell me which it is?
Tommy,
How do you see where the 32 degree line is. I see the 0 degre line, but it doesn’t go into TN on the government site. Am I raeding this wrong?
depends on location. keep in mind a some SOME qfp will be plain liquid until this air mass quickly changes the plain liquid part lol
Looking purely at the soundings from BUFKIT (program to look at thermal profiles), it would suggest the following:
Louisville Area: Rain…then going to a period of Freezing Rain from about 4P-9P…with all snow after that. BUFKIT precipitation type and amounts are suggestive around 4-5 inches of snow accumulation.
Lexington Area…
Rain through much of the day going to freezing rain by 6-7 PM. I think the NAM is dropping the cold air more south than east in this run. Freezing rain from 6-7PM to around 10-11 PM and then all snow. BUFKIT suggests around 4-5 inches of accumulation. Then…by Tuesday afternoon…warmer air aloft comes and it goes back to freezing rain…which could be significant.
Bowling Green: NAM depicts a significant icing event with most of the precipitation remaining as freezing rain. The precipitation amounts down there look close to Ice Storm Warning criteria.
Is it right? Not sure. The NAM has been bouncing around quite a bit and while the low-levels may be cold enough and stay cold due to dynamically cooling, that warm air aloft business on Tuesday will likely be the deciding factor.
Have not seen the GFS yet, but will start looking at that around 1100 PM or so.
Thanks man.
What is the atmosphere like at LMK right now with this system?
Thanks for all the input guys, stay safe through all this regardless what it says we are in lol.
Its what I used to watch. I don’t have cable anymore. Only watched about 10 hours a week during the summer, when I had no school. Even then, those 10 hours was mostly Reds baseball, and news. I can get both from the internet…as well as the weather.
Crystal, I am so sorry, but I’m glad you were with Sylvester. My thoughts and prayers are with you.
thanks tommy so like is tht map showing like 8-12 inches then of snow in central ky
Thank you MJ.
Folk’s, it’s people like this that we like to bash when things don’t go our way.
In situation’s like this, I will take every ounce of advice they give.
MJ, it’s nice to have you back.
Thanks MJ. Appreciate your comments. Both the NAM and GFS have the cold air moving farther south.I Like that BUFKIT 4-5 in. snow. Bet we get a winter storm warning by morning. Can’t wait to read Chris comments in the morning.
What does the NAM say for the Covington area?
MJ, what about eastern ky what will we see????? I hope you are not mad at me…..
I don’t know about everyone else, but I wish all of us weather-lovers could make a living at it! How cool it must be to get paid to deal with all this crazy weather. I do suppose there’s those negative feedbacks you must deal with for predicting something incorrectly. Chris shouldn’t have to deal with that much tho…he’s usually right on!
If this ice threat continues for everyone, I do hope you all prepare wisely! Listen to any suggestions Chris has for you and BE CAREFUL!
Just saw a map drawn up by Jackson Weather Service that shows freezing rain and/or sleet in SE KY. I’ll stick with Chris’s predictions, but just thot I’d share.
Would someone mind telling me which map run is the newest one? I really don’t have a clue as to which one to check…and do you click on coarse, medium, or fine? One more question…do you click on the pcpn maps or the 850, or something else?
Thanks to anyone who will answer.
Test post
I had the same question earlier I didn’t get an answer. Maybe if I repost mine with yours we can get ours answered. Here it is:
Ok I have a question. How do I know which one of the links to click on here to see the model run?
hey to mj and james from nws, glad to have you blogging with us as a self proclaimed weenie it is good to have some pro’s here to counter balance the weenies lol! seriously i like reading your analysis’
Hey Dan 0c line at 850 is not surface temperature. i am not sure but i believe 850 is temps at 4k feet or so, again not sure about how high into the atmosphere it is reading. the 750-1000 maps i believe are surface temperatures, i could be off if i am someone please correct me i have sorta tried to figure it out over the years.
I like the trends of both the 0z models of the GFS and the NAM. My best guess is the 12z NAM will have the best handle on the winter scenario. I would be willing to bet that the snowfall totals and ice and sleet totals will be very close to what the 12 NAM shows. Just my opinion but it seems like the 12z NAM has been the most accurate model especially of late.
I’m sorry, Susan. I had no idea that animals lived that long.
if it was all snow, again some will be rain some ice some snow, but it looks like there is 1.5” of qfp to go around so could be plenty of all three
thanks for the NAM breakdown MJ.
for lex GFS 00z has a touch of ice under .1 inch mon night then about 2-4 inches of snow/sleet before a changeover back to some lgt ice.
the main difference between the nam and the gfs is when precip departs tue. each model bias for precip departure is apparant here and a blend should work on when precip ends tuesday.
bottom line is a good portion of the area should see a winter storm mon night and tue.
my thinking is up to .2 ice and 1-4 snow/sleet in lex higher amounts of snow toward cvg and just the ice toward jkl and just rain for pikeville.
Neil, I am playing catch up and I think your snow shovel post is funny!
Hi Marsha….I’m not mad at you!
For East KY, this is a harder situation to nail down. I am not sure that NAM has the correct idea of not spreading the cold air east. Thus, in the NAM run, it does not look all that impressive for places south of the Mountain Parkway. Based on just the one model that I have looked at closely, it looks like mostly rain with some sleet mixed in here and there.
Now, let me be perfectly clear here. If that cold air gets further east…which it might, then there would be more trouble for east KY. I still like the Mountain parkway as a dividing line, but if the colder air gets in…then I think the threat would shift further south to areas north of the Daniel Boone/Hal Rogers Pky.
GFS BUFKIT data does not run for another 20 minutes or so. However, a quick scan of the GFS points to areas north of the Daniel Boone/Hal Rogers PKY of getting the wintry stuff. South of that roadway…not so good at this point.
I think the main point here is that we’ve hit this hard and people are aware of the potential. I would suggest not to try and get worked up over amounts. The BUFKIT stuff that I have mentioned is just guidance. There are many other factors that could result in more or less precipitation.
It will be interesting to watch during the day tomorrow for sure.
MJ,I’m in morgan co is that north of the daniel boone pky? we are under winter storm watch
Chris…..MJ….whoever, I have a question. When a weather alert is issued, which models are used? Or is it a collective agreeance on the most right model? LOL
my latest take on things
http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/WINTERSTORMCALL2.gif
So it should be just rain down here in my neck of the woods?
eek!
MJ, (or anyone!?)
Where does one find the snowfall accumulation maps (liek the ones that Chris posted)..the ones with the grid that tells colors=inches, etc..????
WOW I do not like the looks of that Tommy. Hope the ice totals are not that high.
Morgan county is north of the Daniel Boone. The Boone connects London/Corbin to Hazard.
Amy…forecasts are made based on all available model data. It can be a blend of things, or it can be made off a single run. In addition, collaboration is done with surrounding offices to make a consistent forecast across the state/region.
http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm
In my opinion, yeah…looks like rain. If the cold gets further south…then you might get in on the action.
MJ, THANKS
Crystal, I just read through the comments & wanted to say how very sorry I am on the passing of your beloved cat. I lost my puppy back in march of this year, had only had her for a couple of months & she died suddenly. Even though I hadn’t had her that long, I know your pain. Its a tough heartache & to this day I still cry some. Animals are part of the family & when they pass, its like losing a memeber of the family. I am truly sorry & I am here for you if u need someone to talk to…
Have mercy you can sure tell i know nothing above weather i click on that and it scared the life out of me….
OK going to Freaksters if anyone wants to stop by and say HI
Once again… just like our only snow of last year… I left the state on a business trip… to a warmer climate and the very day I left… a Winter Storm Watch was issued!!! Well, go figure… here I sit in Alabama reading the blog wondering what I am going to miss! I will be flying back into Lexington on Thursday… I hope.
You guys and gals are welcome!
I sure hope Crystal is doing ok. Crystal I’m here to talk if you need someone to talk to……
waiting for a updated post 🙂 cant wait
Crystal, I’m just now catching up with the blog. I was so sad to hear about Sylvester. I know he was very much loved. I will keep you and your family in my prayers
According to some maps were not gonna get much of anything here in Greenup Co. Others show were gonna get hit hard….Be nice if we actually got some snow here, been a long time since we’ve had enough to amount to anything. Any ideas on this one???
That storm was terrible. Didn’t have power for 5 days because of it. Hope that doesn’t happen again. I have a 3 year old now and don’t know if I could brave the cold in the house that long with her. We did last time, but it was COLD before the power came back on. I remember we pushed our deep freezer outside to keep the food frozen! ha!
OK see i was looking at that and saw it was around 1.25 to 1.5 so i was wondering if u would multiply that by 7 if it would have been all snow. But yea like you said we are getting ice and rain ugh lol. tahnsk again Tommy