Good Tuesday, everyone. We have some very nice weather rolling our way over the next few days. That’s certainly something for early holiday travelers to be thankful for. Give thanks now, because things turn wet as we head into Black Friday and that becomes a trend into early next week.
I’m still putting the finishing touched on my winter forecast (Yes, I am STILL doing homework on it), so I’m not going to get too wordy in this update. That winter forecast airs tonight at 6 on WKYT-TV. Shameless plug.
Rain rolls in from west to east Friday and then hangs around into early Saturday. We may catch a break at some point this weekend before another system rolls in from the southwest. The flow from this thing comes straight from the southwest…
The end result on the GFS is a lot of rain from the Mississippi Valley into our region…
The latest run from the European Model is much worse than that. It shows wave after wave of low pressure working from southwest to northeast across our region into the middle of next week. That puts down a ton of rain…
I got to looking at the upper air charts on this model run and kept thinking… now, where have I seen this look before?
The answer was the first week of December 1978 (Geek alert… I research old patterns in my spare time.). Take a look at the similarities…
The December 1978 scenario gave us a major flood event. I’m not saying that’s happening this go around, but it’s interesting to see a model run look so similar to that exact setup and the exact same time of year. Just something to watch.
I had noticed 1978 popping up frequently on the medium range analog list over the past few weeks. Interestingly enough, the overall progression of that winter isn’t too dissimilar to what I will show you in the winter forecast later today.
The weekly long range European Ensembles run is out and takes us through Christmas Eve. Here’s what it shows for the average temps from now through then…
Precipitation…
And snowfall…
My real takeaway from that is it shows a very active pattern through December.
So much for me keeping this update short. The things I do for you people!
I will update things later today. Take care.
Thanks Chris.Really enjoy reading your weather forcast. I like how you try to give us a heads up on what kind of weather we may have several days out. Keep up the good work.
Thanks Chris. If I remember correctly, 1978 turned out to be a pretty snowy winter in these parts. Not saying that will happen but just food for thought. The great weather you are talking about through Thirsday is a reprieve to procrastinators to get your outside Christmas lights up! ( by the way, I am president of that club.) Have a great Tuesday everyone!
This graphic would have been from the winter of 78-79, not 77-78, though.
I’ve seen other forecasts and many are playing off of the El Niño. There showing warmer and dryer for this winter. They don’t even mention the “blob” of warm water off the coast of Alaska and the west coast. I tend to think maybe they are over playing the El Niño effect, but I don’t know how so many could be wrong. I guess time will give us all our answers. Thanks for always keeping up the blog, it’s by far the best one I read!
Nathan, one thin g I have noticed over the past years is if it is warmer in Alaska it is cold here and vice versa. My choice would be for Alaska to stay cold. They can keep that stuff up there.
Thanks Chris now get to your homework lol. I am so thankful we have you watching over our weather and we have this great weather site to keep us informed and our weather family here on the blog.Hope everyone has the best Thanksgiving ever.
You do a lot to keep your blog peeps informed and I’m thankful for that. I’m a school bus driver and it makes a difference when I’m know what I’m in for…. Thanks for giving your time!
Ummm yeah, the winter of ’78 was kind of a big deal. Looking forward to your forecast. Thanks for all your hard work.
OLD SCHOOL CHRISTMAS a comin!!!!!
I hope so rolo.
I do think we will have at least one old school.snow this winter
As always… We shall see. 🙂
Love to read your blog on a daily basis. It is great for us weather geeks. Thank you for your hard work. I retired a few months back want to see some big snows this winter!!!
Bold prediction is a wind driven major storm. Blizzard of some kind?
Really enjoyed your winter forecast Chris! Thanks for all the hard work that goes into your blog and telecasts. Really interesting stuff for us weather geeks.
I am noticing a continuous increase in snowfall predicted through December as the days go by. Maybe this slow to start El Nino will get its act together, especially for some good southern snow storms in SE KY:)