Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for stopping by the blog.  It is the middle of the work week and this will be the best weather day for the next week… at least! Don’t get spoiled by it as old man winter continues to have a cold grip on us and will throw some snow chances our way in the coming days.

We are awaiting the arrival of a modified arctic front that will blow across the state later tonight. Southwesterly winds will be very gusty today and will pump temps toward 50 as clouds increase from west to east later in the day. A line of gusty showers will be moving in by late evening into the overnight. Cold air will be right on its tail and is likely to catch the back edge of it changing it to snow. Here is the precip type map from the GFS for early Thursday morning…



That snow line will be quickly working to the east into through the morning as temps chill into the low 30s. Here is what it looks like by noonish…



I am noticing the models are holding on to the moisture a little longer into the day meaning we have a better shot at seeing some snow on the back end. How long it lasts is in question… but it can certainly last long enough to put down some minor accumulations in a few spots. The timing on this is critical for the Thursday morning commute and is something we will be updating.

Temps Thursday afternoon will be in the low 30s with very windy weather!

Friday will be another cold one as temps struggle to get much above freezing after a start in the upper teens to low 20s. I am watching a weak system that looks to have just enough to work with to produce a few afternoon and evening flurries to start the weekend.

It is once we get into the weekend when we will focus on a strong clipper moving into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. This will quickly push into the state Saturday with clouds increasing with a good shot at snow developing by late afternoon. We are actually seeing good model agreement on this system.

European Model Saturday Morning



GFS Saturday Evening



GFS Precip Type Saturday Evening



A you can see… the GFS and European are both bringing in a swath of light snow from northwest to southeast by later Saturday. I mentioned in my earlier post that the European has been rock solid with this and the GFS is now on board. (Although it may flip flop some more )

This yet another surge of arctic air that will be even colder than the Thursday-Friday cold. Once this front blows through… winds look pretty good right now to bring some moisture into the region from the Great Lakes into Sunday. Check out the flow…

European Model Sunday Morning


GFS Sunday Morning


As is… the models would be spitting out a widespread 1″-2″ snow from Saturday into Sunday. The north and east would fair the best out of that setup. Again… I am just telling you what the models are showing right now. I actually like this setup a lot… but I have been around enough to know it can change in a hurry. This goes both ways though… we know it can find a way to miss us as we have seen many times before! But this is also a setup that I have seen become an overachiever as well. That is especially true when lake moisture and very cold air get together to create a “fluff” factor!

Temps Sunday will stay in the high 20s to low 30s.

The pattern next week is going to be an active one and could get rather exciting! The models are all over the place for next week and that is usually a sign of some big goings on in the atmosphere.

I have seen nothing at all to change my mind about this December!!

I will be updating the Thursday and Weekend snow threats as needed so be sure to check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.