Good Thursday everyone and thanks for blogging with me. Given the title of this thread… many of you may be thinking you are tuning in to see this famous 90s pop group…
Instead… we are talking about some VERY interesting weather that may be in the making over the next week or so. The computer models are going wild with the cold and snow. Are they correct? That is a good question but I have been hyping the chances for December offering some extreme weather for more than a month now. Before we get to the things that will make you go WOW. Let us start with the short term challenges.
A cold front is moving across the state early on this Thursday. Rain and temps in the 40s are ahead of the front with the cold behind it actually catching up to the precip changing it over to a period of snow. Here is a radar for you to track the changeover…
There is a chance that some areas may get in on a period of snow that can cover the ground and cause some slushy spots on bridges and overpasses. This will be especially true over central Kentucky to start the day… the by the middle and end of the morning for areas farther east.
Early Thursday Morning
The “new” NAM and the GFS are both printing out some light, spotty accumulations…
The moisture will be pulling out pretty quickly so you, if you want an hour or two of snow, hope the cold air catches the back edge of it. Temps will fall into the low 30s as the front goes through and will hold there for the day. Winds will be gusty making it feel like it’s in the 20s.
Friday will be another cold one with highs likely staying below freezing after we start out the day in the upper teens and low 20s. I am still thinking a few flurries might be noted at some point during the day.
Our clipper system is still on track to arrive late Saturday into early Sunday. Light overrunning snows will break out by later Saturday and last into the evening hours. The front sweeps through with lake enhanced snow showers kicking in for late night and Sunday morning. Will this bring accumulating snows to our part of the world? It should… at least a light one. Here is a map showing who has the best shot…
Shouldn’t be anything more than an inch or two as of right now and it will be much less the farther west you go. Northern and eastern Ky will have the best shot at that light snowfall. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 30s with gusty winds setting in. Sunday will feature cold temps with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
We are seeing the models converging on one heck of a moisture rich storm for the early and middle part of next week. As of now… they all put Kentucky in the middle of all this and that could mean some significant wintry weather problems in the form of rain/ice and/or snow. Here is the GFS…
TUESDAY MORNING
TUESDAY EVENING
TUESDAY NIGHT
WEDNESDAY MORNING
That would be some SERIOUS wintry weather around here if it came to pass. Let’s not get too carried away by that just yet as we know it’s all about the track of the low. But… the GFS is not alone with a monster storm next week. Both the Canadian and the European have been showing something very similar in recent days.
You will also notice the HUGE arctic outbreak showing up on the maps above. All the models have been hinting at some extreme temps trying to work southward into the states over the next few weeks but this run gos bonkers with the cold. How cold? Check these maps out…
Wednesday Evening
Thursday Morning
HOLY COW! This is one of the coldest runs I have ever seen!!! Just like with the storm threat early next week… let’s take it slowly and see what happens over the next few days. Just know that the POTENTIAL for an extreme period of wintry weather will be with us over the next few weeks. POTENTIAL being the key word as of right now. 
Like I said… we have some things to track in the short term anyway and we will continue to update those over the next few days.
That is all I have for you now. It’s time for me to go break out my parachute pants from the early 90s and get down to some C and C Music Factory. Things that make you go… Hmmmm?!!! 
Take care.
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Hard to imagine that “Marky Mark”is now Mark Wahlberg…oneof the best actors we’ve got now,isn’t it??
I still think we’re gonna get a HUGE snowfall early next week??!
Chris you will have to show us how to paint parchutes lol. Just pickin! It’s funny, the “wind” pants of today are nothing but yesterdays “parachute” pants lol.
Ok. call it Karma lol I didn’t spell parachute right lol. HEY DEBBIE!
Thanx CB:
You have to make us a promise…
If we get 6+ inches out of next weeks storm, you do a video “waring” those parachute pants..!
How ’bout it Chris… Is that a deal..???
LOL, Chelle…just tonight, was looking thru my old Yearbooks an’ seeing the “chute”pants..(and this was back around ’82..lol!)
next week has the makings of a superstorm, could be one to remeber
notice CB says SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER,
yep snow north mix central and u guessed it MOSTLY RAIN S and SE,
folks I dont care about models and what they are showing cause till I see it I want believe it.
watch the temps spike up with the sytem just like always and on back end COLD funnels back in with a small skiff of snow.
dont mean to be a bummer, but the FACTS ARE ON MY SIDE.
tommy dont let ur self get drugg in man, SUPERSTORM.LOL
I understand ur dreaming, hell I do that too.
but with our past performances over the past races, I dont see a BIG RCE coming next week as far as snow.
now SOMETHING you dont want like ICE will probably smack us right in the face.
see that artic air on models does nothing for me, cause u want get no big snows with REAL COLD air, and when a good storm approaches u have WARM AIR like always over running the cold.
wait and see campers.
that not marky mark and the funkie bunch.
but man that song on the WILD SIDE by marky mark was AWESOME.
Oh Chris! You said that “BAD” word!!!
Around in these parts and I imagine all others as well dread to hear it uttered…….ICE. As much as I love wintry weather we don’t want to see that stuff here in Woodford EVER again! Now snow we will deal with! So come Tuesday I’ll be praying for snow!
Come on dude chill out. Why do you got to be so negative most of the time. Most of us have been reading this blog for a while and haven’t seen a big winter storm yet. We know the odds are against us. But I know for one I’m not a weather weenie for what actually happens I love the anticipation and the thrill of the excitement from different forecasters and most of all the camaraderie I get from attending such blogs and with other weather geeks. So ya we probably not get the big one next week or this winter but hell its still 5 days away from the storm lets all just relax and watch this sucker form. You never know this could be the one!!!
I wonder if the roads will freeze before they dry hmmmm
Thanks Chris…keep us posted on the PONTENTIALLY monstrous wintry forecast.
oops….misspelled ‘POTENTIALLY’.
Rolo said,”folks I dont care about models and what they are showing cause till I see it I want believe it.” I want believe it, I think he meant won’t, thats what they call a Freudian slip if I ever heard one! LOL
lol, sue I was never consider a english buff. heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
WOW…the -30 isotherm dips into the Lower 48 next week. That’s pretty serious considering it’s just the beginning of December.
but
I have to say the models are looking good,, I see a blizard possible from knxville up thru philly.
but as I have said, ill believe it when I see it.
but it does look pretty damn good right NOW.
Big snowstorm yeah!!! below zero NO!!! Sarah Palin can keep that stuff up there with here…BRRR!!! thats too cold..
………………….
Temps. are still to warm down here this morning for snow, been getting some moderate rain showers. 45* at 6 am. and its still 42* at 8:05 am
8:00 am observations around the state.
Jackson, light rain-42*
London, light rain-43*
middlesboro, light rain-45*
Somerset, light rain-37*
Monticello,light rain-37*
Danville, overcast-34*
Lexington,fog/mist-33*
Bowling Green, overcast-33*
Covington, overcast-30*
Huntington, rain-43*
NOW STAY TUNED FOR: ANOTHER EXCITING,DISTURBING EPISODE OF
******** GFS SNOWFALL MAPS GONE WILD****
TOday on gfs gone wild, it appears that the storm we’ve been following for days now has shifted ONCE AGAIN no longer will it be on the 16th and 17th but now the GFS has the entire state of Ky. covered with 8-15 inches of snow on Saturday the 13th. (NOW if was FRIDAY THE 13TH I might have believed it)…LOL.anyways stay tuned for the latest in updates on the dec. 12th-18th snowstorm right here on your snowstorm station WSNO. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for anothe blow hard episode of: GFS SNOWFALL MAPS GONE WILD!!!
………………………………
LOL..LOL.. THE CRAZY THINGS I COME UP WITH…
………………..
I think that cold front has gotten hung up in central ky. somewhere this morning…its still raining and 43* here in whitley co. and snowing (on radar)from northern Miss. to Nashville,tn. up to almost ashland ky.and moving ever so slowly to the south and east. looks like most of the precip. will have moved out before we get a change over down here..but we’ll see.
thanks chris for the update the 6z gfs did back up the 00z to my surpirse. that cold air mass would be coming straight from the north pole.
thanks chris for the update, the 6z did back up the 00z today with that cold wave from the north pole.
GFS Gone Wild.. OK that one is actually kind of funny. 🙂
Chris, you should make a video of that.
…and it should be noted…
1. The Operational GFS was the coldest member and outlier of the 00Z and the 06Z GFS ensembles.
2. European model does not support the GFS…as far as a cold snap goes. Yes, its cold, but nothing historic.
3. The extremely cold temps are likely being influenced by the model’s anticipated snow pack. The model does produce several rounds of snow and that accumulation stays in the model. Thus, the radiation packages pick that up and adjust temps accordingly.
4. Given that the standard deviations in the 00Z and 06Z GFS ensembles is up to 7-8, I am hesitant to buy into its solution now. As I said last night, the models will struggle in the current pattern and none of this will be solved until late in the weekend…or the first part of next week.
Hmmm… looks like Nashville is getting in on a good snow shower or two..the cold air is really having a hard time squeezing on through the state.. its 10:30 am and still my thermometer is reading 40* with rain showers…
Good Morning All !
We are still setting at 40* with light rain showers, down here on the line.Hey Tim….do you think we will get a change over any time soon?
Morning, fellow snow wanters! Thanks for the update, Chris. I hope you will take the deal and show off those ‘chute pants if we get a big snow! (the way our winters have been, you are making a pretty safe deal that you WON’T have to model them. 😉 )
Rolo, I want to see a good snow, but, I guess I have been around you long enough to take that ‘wait and see’ attitude. I would dearly LOVE to get excited about a snow storm, but I have about forgotten how to do that! (But I could re-learn it REAL quick if needed! 😉 )
In any event, we are still getting rain right now, at 11 AM, but our temp is now at 33 and I would guess that the wind chill has a feel like temp of low to mid 20s now. when I came to work this AM, it was 45 and raining.
Well, keep us updated, Chris, on the weekend and the “possible” wintery weather threat for next week! For now, everyone have a great rest of the day. Hmmmm….it is sounding like a chili night for sure! Later!
You party pooper! 🙂 I hope your family had a good Thanksgiving and that things are going well for you!
I am not trying to be a party pooper dude! That’s just my interpretation of what I see right now. I am on board for dealing with a system next week for sure. I am just a bit leery about jumping the gun…given all the let downs thus far.
Family is fine…hope yours is doing great!
me percetage on a good snow coming THIS YEAR is around 6.5 percent so I am not ecpecting one.
now if thew models show a good 1 2 days out, then I might go get another bail or 2 of hay,
Hi guys a cold rain day in Pikeville temp in lower 40’s.I will be with MJ and be a party pooper lol.My mom thought it would snow today so she made me change her Dr’s appointment I tried to tell her no but she said it was just a bad day to get out so it is next weds if we have a big snow it will have to be that day lol.
Marsha and RhondaB,and Debbie thanks for asking about me I have just be so tied up taking care of my very sick cat and he is a little worse today hes eating a little but can’t hardly walk far at all.So needless to say I am crushed. we have had him 15 years.My husband and i are arguing over what to do he says do it I can’t bring myself yet.Yesterday I put him in my bed and we took a nap together with his head on my arm once he reached and with his paw and touched my cheek or however you spell it.I cried.So today I am putting him a Christmas tree in his room,he always loved the christmas tree he would climb it. one night i was sitting there and the tree started shaking and me and my husband looked at each other and Sylvester was in the middle of the tree looking out i have a pic somewhere of that.It was like the squirrel in vacation movie lol.I have not put my tree up or any decorations or lights things is out of character for me.I am like Chris I am Clark on vacation.Maybe the tree will cheer him up he has the cutest Garfield bed.Thats why I have not been posting.
What would really cheer me up if Chris would do a video forecast in those parachute pants please for me Chris and Sylvester lol!!! Also for Rollo to do a video with the goat.Come on guys lol.
Here is a link to a neat clip with Elvis and Martina McBride
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFyo9uiguH0&feature=related
Temps down here have dropped to 36* in the last hour.Still with a drizzle of rain!
Linda… I really dont know, the cold air is struggling here in the southeastern part of the state its 12:40pm. and 36* with light rain..blah..
my prediction is the low tracks up west of moutains and louisville up the river gets hammered why central gets a nasty mix with ice and E se gets THUNDERSTORMS,
if the low goes east of moutains WE ARE screwed as well on a big one.
but maybe, just maybe if I doubt it enough it will blow the past 8 years out of the water.
BUT HOMIE DONT THINK SO.
ROLO may be onto something there, even with this measely little front going through today its struggling to get to the mnt.s with the cold air..So does this start the storm track for the upcoming storms? does the cold trough dig far enough south and east to give ky. a full fledged snowstorm? or does it all lag bag somewhat and cause the storm (s) to run up west of the mnts. through e.ky. and cause a big stinkin mess…Our track records favors the latter of the two.. storm scenario: snow to mix to rain back to mix then to snow on backside of storm with a slushy couple of inches…I HATE THOSE STORMS!! dont you all? while folks to our northwest are enjoying a BLIZZARD, we get the table scraps. YUCK! BUT,BUT maybe, just maybe it will be the big year for CHANGE, since thats all we’ve heard now for months every time you turn on the t.v. its change,change,change,so maybe we can apply it to our weather as well..lol.. I just wished they’ed put some of that change in my pocket..LOL..LOL.Quarters and Dimes preferrably…:)
Hey Rolo:
What do we have on the Boys & Steelers this week..? A gallon of goats milk..?
Weather:
Folks, remember, we are in the 1st week of December… When is the last time we even had a storm like this on the table this early..???
Keeping the faith…
FYI: Word is that both Harris & Porter will be just fine, and want to think God for that..!!
Can we still thank God for things is this country..??? just checking…
You are going to have to calm Chris down when he sees the 12Z run of today then…because boy does it have a classic Nor’easter for next week now.
Sigh…it’s so depressing to see a classic snowstorm ripping through Kentucky on the GFS today…only to disappear tomorrow. But that’s what you get when you are dealing with models that ingest new data each day.
Amen vinny!! we can if its left up to me, but thats just me..
Vinny I am not betting the game, I love big timer football and will enjoy this one.
in NFL im on JETS -4 for a 2dimes, they will rebound on the west coast in this one easily.
about the steelers game, the winner of this game in my eyes will win it all.
the steelers have played a HARDARSE schedule to say the least. this game will show if the BOYS are up to snuff.
I hate the Steelers.
Its funny…I’m reloading the rader map every 15-20 minutes, and evertime I do…the rain stays in one place, and the snow keeps dwindling.
WELL FINALLY !!! 1:50 pm. and reporting light to moderate sleet/snow. with a temp of 34*
WHAT..??
How could you hate the greatest team to ever play in the NFL..? (ok, I’m bias)
lol.. you must be a bitter Bengals fan like Chris…
you’re right, rolo..sorry ’bout that…those 90’s groups all looked & sounded alike to me..esp. w/ about 5 Tom Collins under me belt..lol!
Lol anybody that is a Bengals fan right now is bitter
i think the 12z euro is cooler with a more favorable storm track, the gfs is backing off a bit that 00z run was to extreme and the cmc, dgex, jma are showing a nice cool shot as well. it will take a couple of days to sort through all of this back and forth on storm track and cold intensity but below to possibily way below norm temps have to be favored for days 6-14. i doubt we get below 0 this early like the 00z gfs has.
12Z GFS today has a textbook Winter storm that would cover eastern KY pretty good next week. It hasn’t really backed off at all. What it’s showing would be Chris’ dream come true. LOL.
well that was a quick snow/sleet shower if you blinked you missed it…lol.. Had to go out for a bit. and run into some snowshowers in the williamsburg area. BIG WET FLAKES. but didnt last long. but was nice to look at.
Well Tim its a good thing you went to Williamsburg if you stayed home you would have missed it
get ready andy.. one last snow shower may be passing through in the next little bit…lol..
andy.. one last snow shower may be passing through in the next little bit…lol..
WOW the Global Warming Channel..lol.. just mentioned a sizeable storm next week could bring significant snows to the appalachians…I’m impressed………………………….andy.. one last snow shower may be passing through in the next little bit…lol..
Well I’m impressed the global warming channel just said that a significant storm is expected to affect the eastern half of u.s. next week. which could produce significant snows for the appalachains.. THEY JUST WENT AND JINX’D IT FOR US ALL !!..lol..
This is from Tony Cavalier over at WSAZ.
http://www.wsaz.com/blogs/tonysblog/35560064.html
Wow, driest September through November on record at London.. Extreme drought continues in Southeast KY…
early next week looks like mainly a chilly rain for all of ky and alot of in and oh according to 18z gfs, southern mo into upper ohio valley looks to be best area for wintry weather. i am glad we are holding off on the big snow now, i’d really like to get a big one in time for christmas or new years as opposed to finals time, big snows to distracting
Tony is so cool. Chris is my favorite and Tony right behind him.Okay it is my turn where is Marsha and RhondB?????
Well even though there was no snow for SE KY i’m betting on at least a delay for Knox my front porch is slicker than snot right now and i wouldn’t be surprised that the roads have some ice in the morning
Wxman did you say eastern Ky that would be my dream come true too lol????? No I want us all to get a big snowstorm.What day are we talking? Mom may be changing the Dr’s appointment again.I told her she should have went today.
All right MJ when are you going get on board for a snow storm or at least a major snow??????
I’m finally home, Crystal. I had to leave work early and go have some tests run at the hospital. Couldn’t wait till I got back home to check out my favorite weather hangout. I still think we are going to get more snow this winter than we have in a long while. Like Vinny, I’m keepin’ the faith!
Crystal, I’m glad things are okay. I understand why you’ve been busy, we were just worried about you and Sylvester. My cats love to climb the Christmas tree, but I wish they wouldn’t, lol. Hang in there, Crystal.
Crystal my heart go’s out to you sweety I wish i could make your cat all better. I have the same story I had my tree up a few weeks ago me and my friend was sitting in the family room i look over at the tree and i told my friend my tree had eyes my daughters cat snowball was in the middle the tree its was so funny i willnever forget it.
Crystal I’m here been to the supermarket getting in cleaning supply which i hate to do but my husband want clean LOL. Which i would not let him he would sweep the dirt under the rug he really would and besides It takes me away from the blog. Wrapping gifts from last week shopping. Boy I’m tired.
Roads are already iced over in Knox county be safe everybody
RhondaB hope all test are okay.I appreciate all your thoughts and prayers.It means alot.
Marsha I know what you mean.I did have a cleaning lady but she drove me crazy asking me so much. It was easier to just do it myself.
Just got back to Jackson County from London and the roads a slippery spots on them. Not sure what will happen tomorrow. I would like to go to school as it sounds like we may miss some more in the next two weeks, but we will have to wait and see what happens. Everyone be safe.
The Highway department are out on the roads here in Manchester. I heard them on the scanner, and the roads are getting rough out there tonight. They are getting slicker as we speak. Be careful folks!
I have to agree with Andy Rose, all Bengals fans are bitter right now…. Get this. I was born in Detroit, and live in eastern Kentucky. Needless to say, I drew pretty crappy in the NFL department.
WE just got home from a ball game and the roads in knox county have black ice all over them…slick is the word. School delays are a good possibility in the morning..
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1022 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008
…BLACK ICE WILL MAKE AREA ROADWAYS HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT…
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AND DAMP
ROADWAYS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN AND SNOWFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE. ICY SPOTS…ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES…ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO NIGHTFALL WILL LIKELY MAKE SLICK
SPOTS HARD TO SEE…CREATING THE BLACK ICE PHENOMENON. STATE POLICE
HAVE ALREADY REPORTED INSTANCES OF BLACK ICE AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED
TO USED CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
FOG HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
FOG…WHICH COULD ADD TO THE THE AMOUNT OF SLICK SPOTS ON THE
ROADWAYS. FREEZING FOG WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
OR NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
0z gfs seems lost, but big time moisture is there, just not over ky
looks like southern ky will see mainly rain next week with a little snowshowers on the back side…BLAH BLAH BLAH… same old song and dance
00z does not look right… The cold air should be much farther south on the back end of a storm of that size…
I don’t trust that run at all…
WXman, Mitch, CB..??? what say you..?
…
Hey CB I was checking out the 0z run of the GEM or the canadian model and Sunday has some decent snow here in North Central KY and points north I noticed The JMA was showing somewhat of the same earlier today the GFS and the NAM aren’t showing much at all. Any update on this weekends clipper??
Also did anyone notice the little band of snow showers going through INDY tonight they weren’t even forecasting snow if it holds up northern KY could get a dusting.
no, most of the models have had a little to much to drink for the past several weeks now, i don’t really trust any of them right now. that 00z gfs run didn’t know what to do past monday.
test