Good Friday everyone and welcome to the weekend. It looks like a very cold weekend for the bluegrass state with temps having a tough time cracking the 32 degree mark. We also have our clipper to watch out for as it can bring some light accumulating snows to the area.
Let’s start with where we are right now. Temps will be in the upper teens to low 20s to start out today. Some icy areas could be out there early in the day so be on guard for those when traveling. A mix of sun and clouds will be with us with the smallest chance for a passing flurry. Highs will struggle to get out of the upper 20s to low 30s.
W watch our clipper quickly heading into the great lakes on Saturday as an arctic front sweeps across the state by late in the day into Saturday night. This front will have a band of light snow with it and it will move from northwest to southeast. Temps will be around the freezing mark and there is basically no warm air advection so I cannot see where anyone can seriously forecast rain for Saturday. Unfortunately that is in a few of the forecasts I have seen.
Here is the GFS for Saturday Afternoon…
Saturday Evening
Those maps tend to overdue the overall coverage of the precip so don’t get carried away thinking this is a big snow coming. 
My thoughts on accumulations remain the same. A light snowfall is possible and this is especially true the farther north and east you live in Kentucky…
The key word remains LIGHT as I just can’t see this quick moving system put down more than an inch or MAYBE two at the max. Still… this should make for a nice wintry scene for some areas come later Saturday into early Sunday. Winds will be fairly gusty as well. The air coming in behind the front will be the coldest we have had thus far. Highs Sunday will likely stay in the 20s and Monday morning lows should hit the low to mid teens.
Next week is going to be one heck of a mess across the central and eastern part of the country. The models are not going to be a whole lot of help as they will be doing their best imitation of this place…
The will be waffling back and forth on everything as the models have more on their plates than they can handle. Maybe they got their hash browns scattered, smothered and covered!
Regardless… you get the point. We have been seeing some WILD runs of all the models for next week and that will continue in both directions over the weekend.
Don’t get caught up on any of the runs. We do know a couple of things that look pretty certain. We will be seeing a big low, or lows, coming out of the south next week and these will have a ton of moisture to work with. Arctic air will be moving south into the country at the same time. How all that interacts remains to be seen. But… it will make for some fun times ahead tracking it all and trying to put the pieces together. For snow lovers… here is hoping that square peg finally fits into the round hole! 
I will be updating the blog through the weekend as usual so make sure to check back! Have a great Friday and I will chat with you soon. Take care!
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Thanks for the update Chris. Watching the model runs for the last few days has been like watching a dog chase it’s tail and turn around a chase it in the other direction. The temperature outputs for some of the runs have been crazy. I hope I don’t run the gas bill in my new apartment up to much trying to keep warm over the next couple of weeks.
Thanks for the update Chris. TG said tonight that the clipper might bring us a few clouds and maybe a flurry or two. I remain skeptical of any significant snowstorm or chances until we actually see a storm/setup deliver. Odds are we are due to see some change due to the many misses over the last several years. However, getting burnt makes you become more of a doubting Thomas. Thanks again for the updates!!
LOL Chris! You’re crazy sometimes 🙂
Well, I pulled a 1 in 1,000 odd tonight at work, just a lucky guess! But wow….maybe I should just take what my gut says right now and go with it, eh?
=Aaron=
And what my gut says right now is that we will be riding the fence right up until the storm hits—and we’re all going to be on pins and needles until Tuesday.
The storm will pull to the northwest over time, but chances are the main low rides just west of the apps, which means the full force of the arctic air will make its way into the bluegrass state (although it will be modified somewhat.) Someone in the lower Ohio or Tennessee valleys will hear the dreaded words—“ice storm.”
Here’s your heads up now, just in case. I’m hoping that threat stays south of here (meaning all snow for us), or we just get all rain.
=Aaron=
Bottom line is a large storm will form over the Ohio Valley by early and mid week next week, and many people will be impacted. Keep it tuned to your local weather stations for up to date information on this developing weather situation.
How’s that? 😉
=Aaron=
Thanks Chris. Thank goodnes the weekend is here! Even if there’s not a big chance of snow, it will be nice just to see a few flakes flying while everyone does their Christmas shopping. Next weeks storm is just that…Next Week! So I’ll just wait to see what happens then. Have a great weekend all!
Thanks Chris for the update…have a GREAT weekend. 🙂
u the man CB.
today song is,
Im much to young to feel this damn old by ole GARTH
yea CB got all LOCAL station under the gun again.
cause I watched all them this morning and nobody even mention more that a flake or 2 saturday.
said any snow at all be well to our north.
so all I got to say is they need to just fire their weather people and ALL 3 LEX station hire CB. pretty simple I tell ya.
Good Morning temp at 20 in Pikeville.I will take the light snow flurries or big snow Chris lol,anything you want to send me.Even if we don’t get the big one it is fun talking and dreaming about it.Chris you make weather so fun and interesting and I love the pics it makes me hungry I think I want a waffle and some sausage.Have a great day everyone.Think snow as Chelle says.
DeJa Vu
Chris:
I have been reading your blogs for about 2 years now and you have proven to be my meterologist of choice. Even though the snow totals have not panned out over the last couple of years, you have called many cold snaps and snow chances way before anyone else. At least your weather blog makes everything fun and interesting. Since you left WKYT, I have been forced to read TG’s weather blog….yawn! I am happy to have found your new site.
Ooooooh the weather outside is frightful, but the fire is sooooo delightful – and since we’ve no place to go, Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!
I’ve got wood in the wood bin and a man at home to keep feeding the logs…bring it on!
Well somebody is saying the system next week may start out as rain and change to snow by Thursday or it could be all rain and north of Ohio River gets pounded.
The GFS is all over the place with this thing. From what I see..it’s trending more progressive with each run. It was showing the low moving overtop us…then up the coast…now today it shows the whole system to rolling out to sea. It’s really hard to make ANY calls on next week right now. The Euro and CMC aren’t going to be much help either (as usual).
It’ll be Monday at the earliest before we can make a solid call I think.
Morning all, and thanks for the update, Chris. Got the cocoa ready, and the long johns are out, and ready to be worn! 😉 Weekend looks interesting, especially temperature wise.
Chris, it has been a long time since we have seen it this cold for this long so early into the season. Wondering (hoping) that bodes well for us to get some wintery precip at some point. I am watching three sources, and waiting to see what all three of you say about the next couple of weeks, with temps and precip. Makes for great reading and speculation! 😉
Anyway, everyone have a GREAT Friday, and a safe one. 🙂 Later…
the gfs ensemble mean looks a lot more promising for us than the operational models which are all over the place.
Show us please
Mitch,
When is this storm supposed to be in next week? When you say that the GFS is more promising do you mean a big snow or you just dont know. Thanks so much for your help.
Thanks
I looked through the Global Ensemble Forecast (06Z), and it keeps us above freezing until 114 hours. At 114 hours we are at 32 degrees, and then each hour after that we get colder.
However, the best moisture with the system is present between 108-114 hours. So most of what we see will be rain/snow mix and will not stick. From what I see…just going on that Ensemble, the MAX we could hope for is a 2-4″ snowfall in central KY with 4-6″ in eastern KY. That’s IF the current ensemble did verify.
Okay so by the time it actually gets here it will be all rain. Its nice to know somethings never change
im dreaming of a WET next week, just like the ones WE ALLLL KNOWWWW
may”>http://WWW..
may ur rain be messy and BLAHHHHHH,,
and all ur winter beeee JUST LIKE THE LAST 10.
I do not want to here this CRAP about ohh its just december folks,
the fact is this cold air we have had and will see next couple weeks is OUR BEST CHANCE and getting a big one if u ask me.
JANUARY will warm up and feburary and march we will be on the FENCE like always as we will stay in the warm sector till the precip is gone.
I will take all bets we dont see a BIG ONE this year.
big one to me is 12 plus inches , not a 6 incher with a SERIIUS clipper that melts away hours later. IM talking about a INTERSTATE CRIPPLER,
a BIG ONE is a foot plus that brings in the REAL COLD not this sissy stuff in the teens and 20s. a BIG ONE is a 16 incher or more that temps drop to 0-5 above daytime high,
that a BIG ONE and for most of 80s a couple into 90s we say them type storms.
MAN I LOVE THEM, I mean back in the day we didnt have internet.
just imagine a INTEWRSTATE CRPPLER with the blogg.
a BIG ONE is something that alot of the young pups these days have never seen.
1987 late season storm, NOW THAT A BIGGIE.
one were u clear off a path and feed the birds with light bred, that A BIGGIE!!!
one when u get out of school for 2 plus weeks, THAT A BIG ONE.
so u can keep the 3-4 inch snows, id rather it stay sunny and dry if we not going to get one BUTT HOLE deep to a giraffe.
except chritmas any accumalation is ok on that day.
so is a big one 12 inches or 16
“What is certain is that a departing high will always bring a warm, southerly return flow that will replace our arctic air from the upcoming weekend with mT air by the time the precipitation begins Monday night into Tuesday. By the time the arctic air finally does arrive on Wednesday, most of the moisture will be gone, although I do expect a changeover to light snow at the end.” -Dr. Goodrich, WKU
Just thought I’d post a PhD opinion that matches my own. 🙂 No accum. for us next week. Just rain, which we can use.
However, he does say that he feels we will have more shots at snowfall before Christmas due to the way our trough axis is retrograding westward now. And I like the look of that arctic air bottled up on the Canadian border, and the snowpack being layed down in the north. So we’ll see.
rolo interstate crippler would be nice but in this area of the country we do very well to get 2 or 3 inches and i will gladly take that, no arctic time is not neccesarily our only chance, january 2002 we got a 6” and and 8” snow at my house but the average temperature for that month was WAY above normal so we can have a mild winter tempwise and get blasted with snow on occasion, however i dont feel it for december other than clippers i think this month is uneventful snowise, most decembers are around here jan and feb are best shots
some of the biggest snows I ever saw was in march.
tommy we will not have dec,jan, and feb stay in this cold pattern.
just will not,
ANDY 12 plus…………………………………………..lollllllllllllllll
BABY ITS COLD OUTSIDE !!!!… WEll if your a NON LOVER of snow you are loving most forecasters 5-7 day outlook. I personally think its rather depressing. flurries sat.& sun. and rain on tue. then mix to flurries…boy that sums our past winters up now doesnt it.!!!..
ALTHOUGH ! there are a few still holding on to the possiblility of a kentucky snowstorm on tue. and wed.
………….
Stay tuned later on today for another exciting twisted episode of: THE GFS SNOWFALL MAPS GONE WILD!!… airing sometime this evening (if I have time)..lol.. Having major heating problems here on the ponderosa. NOT GOOD to wake up at 4 am with no heat and the outside temp. around 18*..GRRR!!
Hmmm… anyone up for a trip to Waffle House for some steak & eggs, hashbrows scattered,smothered,and covered…mmm.mm.. CHRIS STARTED IT!!:)
Tim did your well freeze last night ?
rolo-you’re talkin’ about the biggin’s we had back in the winters of 77-78…the kinds that came one right on top of another and we didn’t get out of school until like the middle of June & taking our Spring Break away to make up lost days…the kind where in January of 77, I think it was, where our neighbor up the road had an unknown brain tumor, and the ambulance got stuck and couldn’t get back up the steep hill of the road and they called my papaw with his ‘Scout’ to come push the thing the rest of the way out the one mile road to the main highway…THOSE kind of snows!!!
You nailed todays forecast temps Mr. Bailey. Several other weather media outlets had Southern KY with highs in the mid to upper 30s. As of 2:30 the temp at my house is 29* here in Somerset. I can’t see the temp getting past 34* in the next 2 1/2 hours. Other forecasts I seen were 5 or more degrees higher than yours… JOB WELL DONE
Let me just ask you guys two questions:
When was the last time the weather pros have predicted a big snowstorm and we didn’t get one?
And then, when was the last time we got a big snow, but the forecasters didn’t predict it?
Main thing to remember is, any real big snow we get will be nothing less than a surprise, and the forecasters simply won’t predict an “interstate crippler” or a “twenty foot drift” superstorm.
And the longer we go through this dry spell with winters having below normal snowfall (I think 2001 might have been close to normal,) we’re just setting ourselves up for either one monster storm (I’m talking upwards of 3 foot of snow…) or….we’ll have several harsh winters in a row in the next five to ten year timeframe.
The last one I remember actually being predicted and we actually got was the Blizzard of ’96.
Now there have been way too many in the last 10+ years that we were supposed to get, but ended up being a bust.
A lot of folks like to talk about the Dec. 2004 storm as one that was missed, but in terms of forecasting, most media outlets were dead on on that one being almost exclusively a Western Ky storm.
I forgot to mention the obvious one we weren’t predicted to get which was the 20″ “dusting” of ’98.
DO NOT TRUST THE MODELS MORE THEN 2-days OUT..!
Folks, the long range models are not making any sense to me right now… They are all over the place, and they have departing lows leaving warmer air as it passes..?? I don’t think that can happen, can it..?
Look at the GFS 12z 108hr & 120hr…
I don’t think a storm that is that deep can department and not pull any cold air down… It just looks strange and I don’t trust it…
Maybe a professional can help me out…
Tim me too I wanted sausage and waffles.Is your heat fixed I hope so?
Well, if the trough axis retrogrades westward (or west of us), then we’ll have rising heights here and our temps will be near normal or slightly above.
The GFS and Euro are starting to get the hang of whats going on in the Pacific now. The long range models show massive ridging over the central Pacific with a mean trough setting up over the west coast.
Our weather over the coming weeks will be dictated by how deep that west coast trough develops. Its that simple. If it digs down into CA/NV/AZ, we’ll be in southwest flow with overrunning events occurring to our northwest.
If it goes shallow and just hangs over the pacific northwest, we’ll fare better. Many have been leaning on that old December 1989 analog. So far, the pattern aloft looks nothing like it did in Nov/Dec 1989.