Good Friday afternoon everyone. It has been one cold day out there with most areas staying in the upper 20s for highs… even with sunshine. A few areas in northeastern Kentucky had a few clouds that produced some flurries. 
Yes… those fell at my house.
Remember earlier this week when I was talking about how the models were going to bust on the coming cold shot that is now with us? Well… they are busting badly and as a result… those who cannot issue a forecast without copying the MOS numbers are getting their forecasts smacked down as well. USE THE RAW NUMBERS PEOPLE! It’s actually not just using the raw numbers… you have to look at the overall pattern and where the air is coming from. This is modified arctic air in here right now. 
We have another arctic front moving in for the weekend. We will see the winds kick up out ahead of this front on Saturday as clouds quickly roll in. A swath of light snow will be rapidly dropping southeastward during the afternoon. Temps will initially warm to around the low 30s in most areas then quickly drop once the flakes start flying as evaporational cooling will take place. As I have mentioned times… this is a fast mover so it won’t have a lot of time do drop much snow. Here is my FIRST CALL ON SNOWFALL…
That is for each and every flake that falls from Saturday through early Sunday. I will fine tune those lines over the next 24 hours as we see how the moisture looks. Sunday is another number busting day as temps will stay in the mid and upper 20s after we start it out in the teens.
The storm or storms for next week continue to throw the models into mayhem. Pass the syrup for those waffles! I am noticing a disconnect between some of the operational model runs when you put them up against their own ensemble runs. Look at the GFS and the “mean” of several runs of the GFS known as the ensembles…
GFS TUESDAY EVENING
GFS ENSEMBLES TUESDAY EVENING
Interesting tracking days ahead of us! More on all that later tonight. Until then… have a good Friday!
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I sure hope this huge snowfall plays out. : )
This storm is one for the record books… yea, that’s it…
It is so big that the models don’t know how to handle it… yea, that’s the ticket..!
Gonna’ be one that we tell our grandkids about… yea, that’s right… lol
OK, I’m dreaming, but hey, sometimes dreams come true…!
Thanx CB, and as always… How ’bout them Steelers..!!!
lol
So do forcasters use individual runs, or ensambles to make forcasts…or a mixture of both. Which is to have more weight thrown into it…the ensambles or individuals runs right now?
Thanks for the update, Chris. Looks like we had better make sure we have plenty of firewood and cocoa over the next week, doesn’t it? I don’t mind. Give me some Christmas music, and something to wrap, and I am ready to go!
Everyone have a great rest of the day!
Chris, you need to get some rest. Looking at those GFS runs, you MIGHT just get a little bit busy before next week is out 😉
Chris, I really like that ensemble run. That’s EXACTLY where we need to be if we want heavy snow come Tuesday.
Vinny, I would dearly LOVE to be able to tell my grandkids about the big one of 08! Maybe if we keep dreaming enough, it will happen. Think SNOW, everyone! 🙂
Thanks Chris…looks like there will be something BIG on Tuesday.
ensemble data has to be more heavily weighed during these tough times for the operational models because the ensembles are as chris said are like 12 versons of the 00z gfs or 12z euro. by the way most of the ensembles are not going with a “pac attack” massive pacfic airmass moving east for the week of the 15th like the operational gfs and euro have.
I like the forecast for the clipper just enough to put us in the holiday sprit at the versailles christams parade.
thanks chris for the update. plenty of forecast nightmares still on the way.
THANKS CHRIS… for a midday update. it makes for along day in between these updates..lol…especially when things are SLOW!!
NOW, if we can get that 540 thickness line on throught the state, then its the perfect storm..lol. we poor snow geese down here along the border want in on the heavy snow as well, not scraps..
………….
I hope all of Vinny’s comments end up coming true. Just like all the forecasters during the 93′ superstorm while they were knee deep in snow all the way to the gulf coast were saying this is one to become a story for the grandkids, and boy did it ever…NOW its been long enough its time to freshen up some story telling…lol..about 16 inches worth would be just fine…:)
test
why did my other comment go to moderation? oh well. ensemble data( about 12 extra runs of a model for example 12 runs of the 00z gfs) should relied on more during the tough times for the operational models.
Hi Mitch!
There is a bugaboo with the blog with comments sometimes that sends them into moderation. I am working on trying to fixt it.
Take care buddy!
My Bengals suck so bad I have nothing for you my man! 🙁 😉 I work with a ton of Squeeller fans at WSAZ. ;(
Take care man!
I can remember the super storm of ’93. My wife and I were in college at Morehead State University. Before we went to bed they were calling for 1-2 inches maximum and when we woke up, we couldn’t see our car out in the parking lot. My son has never seen a massive snowstorm, and once I explained to him how we coped and what we had to do to survive, all he could say was “cool.” So I do wish he could experience it for himself. Models are are just that…models…They can change every day, and they will and do. We live in Kentucky for peat sake! At least we can always wish and hope.
Its those dirty comments you been making 😉 I don’t know why people are so worried about moderation it could be an automatic process takes a random post as i haven’t seen anybody post something they shouldn’t’ have
Chris I’ve got the winter doldrums(is that a real word or did I just make it up?)! I could really use a good old fashion snow storm to get me out of the boredom that is my life!
I’ve been saying “wait til next” about the bengals myself Chris. Between the cats and bengals and my beloved Reds…its been a tough decade except for the football cats making a little noise…but on the bright side…There is always next year!
that is so funny andyrose.I sure could not imagine Mitch saying a dirty word,I could see vinny me tim or rolo just kidding guys lol
email me Patty crystal41502@yahoo.com I will keep you from being bored lol!!!I was so bored today i watched the oj sentence,just got back from the post office and wal-mart it is crazy. i made a milk bread run for the big one we are getting next week.j/k Chris has to do a video in the snow in parachute pants if we get the big one lol. I also had to get waffle mix and sausage where Chris showed the waffle house and syrup!!!!She what you started Chris for god sakes don’t show a picture of ice cream or a margarita lol!!!!!!!!
thanks chris have a great weekend!!!
Crystal I swear! You’re a nut and a half! You always give me a chuckle! maybe you should see if there is a margarita flavored ice cream! LOL!
😀
I did the same thing Crystal!
We will eat ..even if it don’t S***…lol :
That’s right Linda
From John Belski at WAVE 3 in Louisville regarding next weeks storm…
“A look at the latest model runs shows the heavy rain potential here for Tuesday. A couple days ago it looked like the northern and southern streams would phase which would bring down more of the colder air. As it stands now they will remain unphased which makes it too warm for snow for most of the system. We’ll see if tomorrow brings any changes.”
not looking good kiddos…
lets all chillax out on all the systems from the south until christmas lets get a good snow for christmas, savin the best for last yea!!!!!
Even the ensemble runs take most of the moisture away before we really go below freezing. I am still skeptical…
It’s already 20.1 F in Lawrenceburg…we are going well into the teens easily tonight. Forecasts are too warm…
Warm up enough to rain, then snow, a little? Nothing new for the last several years. Oh well.
9:45 pm. 15.6* here on the ponderosa in whitley co. Good thing we got the heat problem fixed today..would have been a cold night in front of the fireplace…brrrr… Well I guess were all waiting on the snowshowers tomorrow and the next BIG thing coming down the pike would be our ****storm on Tuesday. I refuse to fill in the blank…but if I absolutely had to it would probably be snain..lol or snix..lol..go figure !!
18 allready here in west lex, temps are gonna bust bad tonight, single digits without snowcover, wow
Patty you have email lol
I think we are wasting a good, old fashioned cold pattern too early in the season. I think we all know what’s going to happen…an above average January with plenty of warmth. The sad thing is, even with a decent pattern, we still can’t buy a decent snowfall. My take..Winter of 08-09 will be just another bust, much like the past five or six years.
As of 11:06 PM, it’s 14.5* in Ashland. Don’t know if CB brought the cold with him, but it’s much appreciated! I’m looking forward to the “big one,” but even if disappointment lingers once again, I’ll take every flake I can get! Though I do hope we get a decent snow in the next couple of years. I’d like my kids to be able to play in a deep snow while they’re still young enough and arthritis-free to enjoy it!
00z GFS shows our very potent low traveling straight up through the middle of Kentucky. Pretty much the same pattern as last year. Starts out as heavy rain, then ends as flurries. Of course, this is just one run. Many more to go.
my thinking as of now
1. low tracks over ky tuesday with hvy rain
2. secondary low pops along front and tracks east of the mountains then off the east coast this low would be the best shot at snow.
Has any one seen the radar lately snow really filling in through Missouri and Illinois CB might have to redo his snow totals for this weekend!