Good Thursday everyone and Happy Thanksgiving! The weather for this special day is looking as good as we can get this time of year… especially in the pattern we are in. I have a lot to get to and a short time to do it in so let’s get at it.
This Thanksgiving will feature temps in the 50s under mainly sunny skies.
A weak cold front will slip across the state Friday and will bring in some cooler air. A few clouds will be on the increase during the day as winds kick up. Temps will be back in the 40s for highs.
That brings us to the weekend and what appears to be a significant winter storm across the eastern half of the country that is likely to impact the state Sunday into Monday. Before I get into that I want to throw out a quick word about Saturday. Several of the models have been trying their best to bring a touch or rain or snow toward us. The GFS is the most aggressive with this possibility and it is something to watch for. As if I need something else to have to deal with! 
The Sunday storm is going to be a complicated one as we will be dealing with a clipper heading into the Ohio Valley that should spawn another big low to our south and east. Exactly when and where this low forms is up for debate and will mean the world to us in terms of what and how much we get. Let’s get to some maps for ya. We start with the European model which has been fairly consistent in recent days…
SUNDAY
You see the potent clipper moving in and transferring energy to a new low forming in the Carolinas. That would be a early day wintry mix that changes quickly to snow as the low in the east strengthens and heads north…
MONDAY
As you can see… that turns into one heck of a storm and would mean widespread and wind whipped snows around here Sunday night through Monday night.
The GFS model has been coming around in recent runs toward showing something similar… if not more powerful. The runs from early in the day Wednesday were showing this low coming much farther west bringing a major snowstorm to the Ohio Valley. The latest run from late Wednesday evening was farther east with the low…
Sunday Evening
Monday Morning
I think this run is too far to the east… but the GFS is getting the overall idea down and that is we should have a nice sized storm moving through the eastern US. IF this solution of the GFS were to turn out to be correct… it would throw a lot of atlantic moisture back into a closed low moving across Kentucky…
GFS Upper Level Chart Monday Morning
The Euro and GFS solutions shown in this blog post would both bring a widespread snowfall to our region. Just how much is up for grabs as we have a lot of variables that have to be worked out. But… if you are curious as to some snowfall charts…
0Z GFS Through Monday Evening
The dark green is up to 6″ of snow. That map basically blankets the state with a 2″-6 snowfall with a little more on top of that Monday night.
The GFS run from a few hours earlier brought the low MUCH farther west and had a HUGE snowstorm for western and northern Kentucky…
18z GFS Through Monday Morning
You get the picture as to what I am talking about here so PLEASE DO NOT take any one model run or model as the gospel as things will continue to evolve over the next few days. We have a few days to watch this thing so make sure you check back for the latest as I will be updating several times a day through the weekend.
If I continue to see the models in the same ballpark… we will shift into THREAT MODE for the first time this season for a possible significant early season winter storm. 
Again… keep checking back for updates and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Take care.
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i hope that is not the case cuz i want a big snow for eastern ky we always get missed excet the mountians 🙁 poor poor eastern kentuckians we seem to always miss out anymore…
I will not gripe, bemoan, or complain in any way today, because it is THANKSGIVING! 🙂
And, I will thank whomever (or whatever, if it’s your preference) if we get a good dose of snow this coming weekend, as I’ve been waiting for it ’round these parts for a long time!
THANKS, Chris, for your hard work and dedication. 🙂
=Aaron=
thanks for the update CB! i am getting excited hope this works out, dt says the low will track east of appalachain spine
we have our storm, 00z nogaps has the storm as well with 3-6 inches regionwide again this is one of many models.
not bitching, but CB 95 percent on blog could care less about a western ky and louisville big snow.
also the old warm air track looks to be the course of storm with couple inches tops for most of us SE and eastern ky people.
yea it might change but my money on the rain and a little snow at the end, JUST LIKE ALWAYS FOR the past decade basically.
Thanks Chris for the update and for all you do. Happy Thaksgiving! 🙂
WOW! I’ll be sure and get an extra jug of milk and loaf of bread. I don’t mind a few extra days of no school. I really don’t want to go to school until July but, I do like the unexpected days off. Everyone please be safe if you are on the roads today. Please do not drive if you have been drinking or have side effects from the turkey! Happy Thanksgiving!
HAPPY TURKEY DAY FRIENDS..!
My son is in for Iraq and I have the world to be thankful for..!
To the Storm potential:
After surfing the web this morning, I found some very interesting forecast for “our” state with the Sun-Mon storm. I will not mention names or give links to other blog sites, but instead, I will just outline some of what’s been tossed around this morning…
Meteorologist A: Ohio Valley in the threat category for a significant snowstorm Sunday into Monday. The low will come out of the Mississippi River delta region and track up the Appalachians.
Meteorologist B: The solution I see is a swath of snow that goes from eastern Tennessee to Maine with the axis of the snow from Knoxville to Roanoke to Binghamton to Caribou, Maine.
Meteorologist C: Heavy snows with blizzard conditions Sunday afternoon and evening Sunday; Snow tapering off Monday afternoon.
Meteorologist D: ok, this is NWS, but I think Chris is ok with their links…
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Just a few snippets of what I’ve found this morning, so take them with a grain of salt for now…
Bottom line, there is something brewing in our near future. Everyone is jumping on board “now”, but we all know who has had this for several days now and that’s our very own CB….
HAPPY THANKSGIVING to one ans all! I just hope that the last map doesn’t verify, because that would be a carbon copy of Dec. ’04 in which my brother got over a foot at his house in Louisville, and at my house in Wilmore we got a dusting. Come on and bring it old-school: double digit snowfall for everybody!
Thank you Chris! Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family! AND to all my fellow bloggers who I’m thankful for everyday!!!
vinny I see u been over at accu reading ole manaiac henry.
with axis from knoxville to maine with snow.
he still not sold on it though.
Happy Thanksgiving and why does it look like eastern Ky will get missed again? Chris Rollo Wxman Mitch please give your thoughts on us in eastern ky???????
Jason I know and share your pain lol!!!!!!
Rolo pass the Makers!!!!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Anyone else notice the Canadian model is showing the storms phasing a bit later than the GFS and Euro?
Rollo pass the Makers
Rollo pass the makers and Hi Debbie and baby!!!!
I will try this once more Rollo pass the Makers
Rolo:
I’ve been all over the web my friend..!
I’ll be on TVG later, and it will be raining $$$$$$$$$ lol
Test Test mine has been saying awaiting moderation anyone else?
First things first…HAPPY THANKSGIVING !!! and Vinny…My families thoughts and prayers goes out to your son in Iraq..We have family their too.and my grandma is in the hospital this yr. so we are getting ready to go spend some time with her this morning..
………………………………
NOW TO THE snowstorm races!!! and there off!!!! looks like the models are all hanging in there side,by side..WAIT a minute,,,yes…THE GFS is pulling in the lead coming around the bend, neck and neck with the Euro !!! WAIT A MINUTE WHOSE THAT PULLING IN THE LEAD YES!!! YES !!! ITS THE GFS MODEL AGAIN!!!..They are coming around the stretch, coming around to the final lap… and they are side by side, WAIT A MINUTE WE GOT A NEW LEADER !! YES !!! LOOKS LIKE, COULD IT BE !! YES!!! IT IS,, AT THE FINISH LINE WE HAVE A WINNER, THE WINNER OF THE snowstorm races is………..???????……….
Stay tuned for another excited episode of ” SNOWSTORM RACES” coming your way soon on this station…:)
Crystal….Happy Thanksgiving to you and your friends. Have a wonderful day because you’re such a wonderful and special person!
HAPPY THANKSGIVING to one and all! Bring the snow on. We are headed to Campbellsville and I don’t care if I get stuck in Campbellsville as there is a big basketball tournament so all teams will be there and we can just keep on playing.
Happy Thanksgiving Pat! I hope you and your family have a good one. Good luck in the tournament! I’m still a fan even if Chase did jump ship! He’s happy at WKU though!
if these storm doesnt phase, still a few inches of snow, if it does wow!
This fall we buried my husband’s Mom and Daddy, so we are spending Turkey Day with our neighborhood. Lots of food, hugs, and good times! Then we are going to Dayton Ohio area to spend another Gobble Gobble Day with our kids, sooooo are we gonna get stuck up there??? We are leaving Saturday early and planning on returning late Sunday. Should I pack extra underwear?? I am anticipating……
waiting on the 12z gfs
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! Chris, I appreciate your dedication to keeping us updated on the weather. I’m going to keep the enthusiasm down until closer to the time, I don’t want to jinx anything. But, Crystal, I have a good feeling about this one.
Take care everyone…hello to Rolo, Vinny,Crystal,CoffeeLady, and all the old gang…it’s good to virtually “see” y’all again!
The 12Z models are showing the same basic idea with a textbook double-barrel low on the east coast by Sunday night. The caveat is going to be surface temps. GFS for instance shows us above 32 until Monday. I think Monday afternoon/evening would be our only good chance at laying down any good accumulations. Will there be moisture left by then?
gfs also busted terrible on temps with this past front, nam hit it head on. i dont feel this storm is going to bring major snow but advisory critera snow is possible
wxman, what does euro and can have us at tempwise?
Not going to waste my time with the Euro. But the CMC shows basically the same thing as GFS temp. wise…maybe just a tad colder. CMC solution would have pretty decent snow showers here all day Monday.
The EURO and CMC are both cooler than the GFS. The main question is with the phasing of the branches and which low is the most dominant. with the double barrell solution most likely a mix w/ cold rain could occur sun pm before a changeover to snow by sunday evening. I still think there’s a shot the coastal low is swallowed up by the clipper and bombs over pittsburgh instead of philadelphia to give us a snowstorm( something similar to the ukmet’s postion, if the coastal low wins out it’s advisory city aka the 12z gfs. to early to commit to anything as the model solutions differ quite a bit.
one thing we have seen time and time again the past several winters the 12z gfs run will shift a storm south and east only to shift north and west on the 18z run.
SAME OLE SONG AND DANCE, just like I been predicting.
we get a system with potenial and guess WHAT, we get the ROD!!!!LOL
aka warm air.
folks i know its early but u can forget about any big snows around these parts.
er ole BUBBAG at when we need him.lol
12z cmc has gone to the possbility of the storm getting sucked into the northern branch and bombing out over pitt instead of philly and as a result puts down quite a bit more snow than the gfs.
mitch could you post a map, if it’s not too much trouble?
true 18z has done that more than i can count, i cant count the times we’ve had the low in a perfect spot only for the 18z to track make a nw trend, sometimes significantly, i’d still bet this a rain to 1-2” of light snow event but i hope i am wrong
well VINNY jock just on a sunday drive on TRIPPI but the 2 scratches killed TRIPPI late run out, songster and normandy left FAB STRIKE with a easy lead and stroll.
er is everyone, u think its a holiday or something.
me and my billy goat will keep things under control till u all get back.
we just ate some deer tenderloin and bet the cowboys -12.
u mean TG working on TG, that a shocker. I guess though lauren working this moring he had no choice.
u have to work BAILEY boy?
u guys got any model updates for me and my billy goat to chew on.
HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!! looking good soi far.
I knew it, their ain’t gonna be no decent snow around here I hate getting my hopes up there is NO CHANCE of a big snow it ain’t gonna happen. Better chance of the Lions winning a game then the Ohio Valley getting some decent snow. Mark my words no decent snow from this system. But at least the Saints won last week making them 6-5!
What a beautiful day this has been. Sounds like we are in for a roller coaster of a ride coming by Sunday. It is so good to read so many posts.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!! We always have the kids for brunch so they can visit the “other” sides for dinner (people not potatoes) 🙂 . My husband is farming and I have taken my time to clean up, put away. I’ve watched sappy movies, cried and washed dishes. Ah – the perfect day. 🙂
Chris, if you’re right about that snow on Monday, I will be addressing Christmas cards and drinking hot tea!! Thanks for all the updates and maps. I love the maps!!
Hi gang… HAPPY THANKSGIVING! 🙂
I will have an update for you coming up in a few hours. Probably by 11 or so. It will be a short one before my main update later tonight. I am working so that one may be on fairly late. Sleep is for the weak!!! 🙂
By the way… I do think we will have a snowfall Sunday through Early Tuesday! 😉
Read your previous post 😉
The way I see things going for this weekend is this for the Lexington area.
1. Sunday shall be all rain a heavy rain at times.
2. Early Monday morning switches over to a brief period of heavy snow. Ground is too wet possibly an inch or less.
3. We get a lull in the action in the morning ours until around lunch when the snow showers start to pick up.
4. Monday evening the snow picks up at a steady pace for 5-6 hours we pick up anywhere from 2-4 inches.
Thats my take on the models as of this point.
This is my take on the storm system for LEX
1. Sunday all rain. Moderate rain at times
2. Brief changeover to snow early Monday AM possibly an inch of snow.
3. Lull in the action in the morning hours until lunch when light snow kicks back in.
4. Moderate snow begins around dinner time with 5-6 hours of moderate snow accumulating 2-4 inches.
Thats just my take for Lexington
the way things look as of now light accumulations are possible my thinking early on here is 1-2”
I hope everyone had a spectacular Thanksgiving,we sure did. now on to the good stuff…lol…..
looks like the NWS is starting to get in on the snow for Sun. and Mon.. here is my local forcast for knox co. ky. from NWS in Jackson..
Saturday…Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of a rain shower in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night…Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of a rain shower. Lows 32 to 37. Light winds.
Sunday…Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday Night…Cloudy with rain or snow showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Monday…Cloudy with snow showers likely. Light snow accumulations. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.
Monday Night…Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cold. Lows in the mid 20s…….
This is still a few days away, and a WORLD OF CHANGE can happen between now and when the first flake flies, so we watch,and wait…something we have come to familiar with here in Ky.
Exstended Thanksgiving break anyone???
weather channel is giving nothing but rain…. they r wrong!!! lol anyways i really hope eastern ky gets in on some of the good stuff soon!!!!!
Given some of the longer range forecasts and that there’s been little talk of it recently, is it not looking like it will be as cold as thought for early Dec.?
This is my first year as a retired teacher but I sure remember what the anticipation of a snow day felt like! Retirement is wonderful and worth the pain you are going through now!! Hang in there!!
read here
https://kyweathercenter.com/2008/11/26/planes-trains-and-automobiles.aspx
This is my personal take on the snow scenario for LEX
1. Sunday primarily an all rain event.
2. Early Monday AM brief switch over to moderate snow less than one inch.
3. Short lull in the action until midday when light snow picks up.
4. Moderate snow starts at about dinner and lasts for 5-6 hours putting down a total accumulation of 2-4 inches in LEX area
Just my take on the situation.
This is my personal opinion on the snow scenario for LEX:
1. Sunday primarily all rain event.
2. Monday early AM brief switch over to moderate snow laying down an inch or less.
3. Lull in the action as snow tapers off until lunchtime when snow picks back up to light snow.
4. Snow picks up to a moderate pace around dinner lasting 5-6 hours accumulating an additional 1-3 inches giving the total storm accumulation of 2-4 inches.
Just my personal take on the situation.
Danville Kentucky here. Just thought I would throw in my 2 cents. Short version. I have looked over the last 4 gfs runs ending at 18z this Thanksgiving. For the Boyle County region I estimated 4-8 inch accum potential off 2 runs/ 4-7 inches off one run and 1-2 inches off a fourth run.
So based on what we know now if the storm materializes I would expect a rain/snow mix for a while on sunday changing to snow with total accum by Tuesday noon of 3″-6″ for Boyle County, Ky. which is 30 miles sw of Lexington.
sorry for all the posts it wasnt letting me post so i kept trying
Whoever posted as “Aaron” in the “previous post” as you mentioned Andy, is NOT me, and so it makes me look bad when I come in and someone else has the same name as I do. Guess it’s time to start using a different posting name so people will be able to know the difference….
Plus, they don’t sign their posts, either.
=Aaron=
My Bad dude sorry
This is my 3rd year. By the time I’m in your situation, I’ll probably have to work 30 years anyway. I do love my job though. Better pay would be nice. 😉