Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for checking out the blog. Our Monday behaved pretty much as we thought with the morning ice causing travel problems in eastern Kentucky followed by the soaking rain. Most areas picked up a half to nearly one inch of much needed moisture.
A strong cold front blew through the state last evening ushering in much colder air that will be with us today. A strong disturbance will be crossing the state early on this Tuesday and will have enough moisture to create snow showers and flurries. This is not looking as impressive as it had been in recent days. There is not a whole lot of moisture to work with and our winds look to have too much of a westerly component to get Lake Michigan fully involved.
I expect scattered snow showers and flurries across central and eastern Kentucky into early this afternoon. Temps will be in the low 30s during this time meaning a grassy coating will be possible under the heavier snow showers. I am not even going to bother to put together a snowfall map with this one. That should show you how impressed I am with it. 
Winds will be gusty all day long and we will likely see some breaks in the clouds… especially the farther west you live. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s across most of the region.
There is still a shot at some light snow showers or flurries for a time Tuesday evening into very early Wednesday. This will mainly be confined to the eastern part of the state. Lows Wednesday will be in the 20s.
Why is this system not behaving like the last two? A couple of reasons for this. The first is that it is NOVEMBER and it just doesn’t snow all the time during this month. Heck… the fact we have had so much wintry weather already is amazing! Please don’t forget that it is ONLY NOVEMBER! The main other reasons… the air behind this is not as cold and the wind direction is nowhere near as good.
Wednesday will see partly sunny skies and temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. I do not see any travel problems across the state as you head to wherever it is you are going for Thanksgiving. Speaking of Thanksgiving… it looks dry as well with temps in the 40s for highs.
EUROPEAN MODEL THURSDAY
That nice weather for Thursday could lead to a southern storm trying to develop later Friday into Saturday. This system looks to get squashed from the north as the cold begins to ooze back in.
EUROPEAN SATURDAY
Just how far north will the moisture from this weakening low get? The models are not handling this system very well so I am not going to commit to anything with it as of yet. I will say that we need to watch for some mixed precip at some point Friday into Saturday. We will get more specific as we get closer… I think! 
From this point the European model begins to unleash the cold into the country with a stout clipper that moves in Sunday night into Monday.
SUNDAY
MONDAY
This model run makes the most sense to me of all the various model runs I look at. If the European model is correct… that could be some decent snows breaking out Sunday night into Monday as a piece of arctic air moves into the region. I say IF because the models are not to be trusted right now because we are heading into a period of extreme winter weather for much of the country. They just cannot handle everything that is going on in the atmosphere. Knowing that the models are not to be trusted is a BIG plus in making a forecast right now. Trying to nail down the details is a different story!
I do want to stress once again… I think we are in store for some awesome winter weather as we head into December. I have made this pretty clear for the past several weeks and the pattern I am seeing is telling me I am on the right track. All aboard!!!!!
I know I said I would get a video on tonight… but I am still trying to shake this bug that zapped my voice last week. It is trying to give out on me again so I thought I would type instead of talk. That’s actually a good thing since you don’t have to look at this ugly mug!!!
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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glad i’m not the only one casting the GFS out to sea. thanks chris for all your hard work.
Well, if we do get any “mixed” precip, I hope it starts in the morning around 5:00 and then quits by early afternoon, so I don’t have to worry about driving in that yuk! Some of the initial data from some of the models (and yes, I know you can’t trust them right now) suggest an overrrunning event where moisture would reach the southern two-thirds of the state. Warm air would be aloft, and cold air would be stuck at the surface. I won’t say the word, but there is the possibility of “FR” in that whole mess.
=Aaron=
Hey Chris, That bug is a tough one to shake I had it and it nearly took me 3 weeks to get rid of it. I have never had a cold to last that long usually I’m over in 3 days 4 at the most. You better get all well, for the next few months you’re gonna be busy keeping us up on the snowfall for I have a feeling this is the year for payback for all them mild winters we have had.
The Latest run of the European(even newer than the above maps) shows the cold moving in even quicker with snow breaking out Sunday into Monday with arctic air surging in. It also is showing, for the 2nd run in a row, a winter storm threat for the middle and end of next week.
It’s going to get fun! 🙂 Take care.
Bah! Throw Aaron from the train for using older model data. I guess we’ll see which one turns out.
Either way, I’d much prefer snow over that mixed stuff any day.
=Aaron=
Chris,
Judging by what you said in that last post—we have to be careful that the cold press coming in at the supposed same time will not be so much as to overwhelm (or suppress) the southern system into staying south of the area.
Heavy snowfall in the Bluegrass is a very, very delicate algorithm, even in winter months when snow totals are at the highest.
I’m still rooting for the white stuff, and quite a bit of it!
=Aaron=
Thanks Chris for the update…Folks, stay safe and watch out for black ice.
That bug has been making the rounds at my work too! Just so you fingers aren’t broken we’re all good here! LOL!
Hope you get to feeling better Chris. Thanks for your hard work.
Get well soon, Chris. Thanks for keeping us updated even though you are feeling “under the weather” (sorry, couldn’t resist the pun). I’m with Aaron C…I would much rather have snow than the freezing rain!
I would like to wish everyone a Thanksgiving Holiday filled with family, friends, warmth, happiness, and hope. We all have something to be thankful for, even on days when we aren’t feeling too thankful. I’m thankful for my family and friends, and especially for my 16-month old granddaughter, Dakota. She told me she loved me for the first time on Sunday!
Once again, the NAM model was all over this like a cheap suit. It didn’t even drop below freezing in Lawrenceburg…we’re a tick above 32 this morning. Clear skies all night basically.
We had some beneficial rains yesterday pretty much all day long which was a good thing since its been SO dry. This morning Not much happening down here along the border Clear skies, gusty winds. Temperature is sitting at 34.4* ,looks like some snowshowers or flurries moving across central ky. on radar but I havent heard anyone say if it was actually snowing or not. so I guess we wait til the next storm…
Am I the only one that gets IMPATIENT with these systems???…LOL….
Thanks for the update, Chris! Hopefully, we can get the outside decorations up tomorrow, since the hubby is off after today for the rest of the week. We measured an inch of rain in my rain gauge from yesterdays front. So, you were right on target with that.
Really looking forward to seeing what your crystal ball shows us for the upcoming weeks before Christmas! Sounds like the weather just MIGHT put us all in a good holiday mood, hopefully. Have a GREAT day, everyone!
FIRE IN DA HOLE!!!!!!!
CMC showing something similar. GFS out to lunch big time.
NAM scored a easy win here for today’s forecast over the GFS.
I’ll keep a score this winter and we’ll see if the NAM is on top at the end.
NAM 1 GFS 0
How far out are we talking here..?
24hr
48hr
96hr
120hr…???
48-60 hr
The GFS model has begun to trend the other direction. Each run is now coming in showing a much milder and drier pattern for December.
This would match my thoughts from last week about the monthly swings we always see here in Winter. Look for December to finish with a warmer average temp. than November will.
That won’t be fair. NAM will destroy GFS out to 84 hours any week of the year.
A better idea…compare GFS to Euro. I personally think the Euro stinks. But many here worship it. Let’s keep score there this year.
Does anybody want to go out on a limb with some projections as to what the big December arctic air will bring? (temp wise) I’ve got foster pups in our barn and a stray cat in the woods and many other critters to get squared away before it gets really cold.
Everybody please look around and make sure your neighbors are providing proper shelter for their pets. Thanks!
I wonder if we can get ROLO to place a wager on which model will come out on top? Competition makes things interesting.
18z NAM starting to come around again to a system friday night. 12z euro shows something similar as well. hopwfully MJ’s ideas on storms trending north and slowing down holds true this time.
http://www.wxrisk.com/wxalert.html
DT’s wxrisk.com focuses on the medium and long range
18z reversed the trend. GFS has a poor handle of upper level energy in the southern plains this weekend as that has set the operational gfs into a talespin. the ensembles of the gfs are much colder than the operational gfs.
00Z NAM has gone back south on this run. The 12Z Euro was trying to go north, but even with that solution, only the far southern KY counties would get in on that.
Monday night and early Tuesday looks interesting regarding the 12Z euro solution. The 18Z GFS supports the 12Z Euro as well. Will be interesting to see what tonights 00Z GFS has…as well as the next run of the Euro.
Who knows when America’s presidential election?