Good Monday to one and all and welcome to the week that is Thanksgiving! It’s the time of year when millions and millions travel far away from home all for the yams and turkey! Oh yeah… that whole family thing too.
It’s also a time when the weather forecast takes on some added importance. A nice calm week would be idea for traveling. That would be the exact opposite of this week… especially the next few days.
A cold front will be crossing the state later on this Monday and will have a ton of moisture to work with meaning widespread rain will be with us. There is concern that, in some areas, temps will be cold enough when the precip moves in that sleet and some pockets of freezing rain may occur. The colder valleys of eastern Kentucky will be the main areas to watch for this. Please be careful if you will be out driving early Monday across the east as I have seen situations like this before produce slick travel. Roads will likely look wet… but that could be ice instead. Temps will warm to above freezing quickly early Monday with rain taking over.
Rain will be the name of the game Monday. Here is a regional radar to track the rains…
Most areas should pick up between a half and one inch of much needed rain. Highs will be in the low to id 40s as winds increase once the front moves across the state by late in the day.
GFS Monday Afternoon
Much colder air will move in during the evening Monday with any leftover showers mixing with snow showers by late evening with a full switch to snow showers coming Monday night.
There is a strong disturbance moving across the state Tuesday and this will increase the snow shower threat. Snow showers and squalls should become widespread.
GFS Tuesday Morning
GFS Tuesday Afternoon
Temps Tuesday morning should be at or just below the freezing mark meaning some slick travel will be possible. Temps during the day won’t move much and should stay very close to freezing on a gusty west to northwest wind. Bottom line is Tuesday is likely to be a fairly wintry day for our region. This should make for a wintry Christmas Parade in Ashland Tuesday evening. Your friendly weather dude will be taking part in the parade with some of the fine folks from WSAZ.
Snow showers and squalls will continue across eastern Kentucky Tuesday night into early Wednesday. These will have some lake moisture to work with.
Wednesday Morning 
What about accumulation? Well… I am glad you asked!
I think we have a great shot at putting snow on the ground once again across central and eastern Kentucky. A coating to as much as an inch or two will be possible… especially in the east. Here is what the GFS thinks…
The light pink is an inch or less with the darker pink showing where the model thinks there could be an inch or two. As you can see… the West Virginia mountains into eastern Ohio and points northeast are going to get a thumping snowfall. Travel Tuesday into Wednesday across the region won’t be ideal by any means and we could be seeing some slick roads. We will update this later today and this evening.
Thanksgiving looks dry with temps in the 20s to start and 40s during the afternoon. A storm system should be moving in later Friday into the coming weekend with the chance for rain and snow. The models don’t have a good handle on this system just yet. I know… shocking! ![]()
Colder air will begin to move in later this weekend and REALLY increase over the next few weeks. I continue to see all signs pointing toward an extreme winter weather period for much of December! The cold could be off the charts and the snow potential may not be too far behind. Basically… everything you guys have been wishing for the past 4 years of blogging with me may come true over the next 6 weeks or so. ![]()
I will update through the day as needed and should have a video discussion on late tonight. Have a great Monday and take care.
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YEA CHRIS, see we all knew you could do it! Just took some time and a lot of close calls! Love the forcast!
CB: so this is your quote;
” Basically… everything you guys have been wishing for the past 4 years of blogging with me may come true over the next 6 weeks or so“
WE GONNA’ GET THE OLD SCHOOL STORM WE’VE BEEN PRAYING FOR..????
yes..!!!
Thanks Chris for the update…is this pattern similar to the winter patterns of the late 1970s?
Thanks Chris! My son will be traveling from WKU on Tuesday afternoon. I’ll pray for his safe return as well as those returning home to loved ones for the holiday. Thanksgiving is one of my favorite times of the year because we celebrate family and those people we love so dearly. It’s a time of reflection of ourselves and what God has given us. During this wonderful season try also to think of ones that are less fortunate and give a little of your time, money, or food to your local food bank or charity of your choice. These are tough times and we all need to stick together!
With that said, bring on the winter weather!
folks dont get to excited yet, cause till I see it I want believe it.
big system moves in= temps rise just enough to rain.
but I am hoping for a OLD SCHOOL 1987 type snowstorm this year.
Pretty slick this AM @ 7; but just rain with ice gone @ 8:30 when my wife started out for work. Temp up to 34* now from 30* @ 7AM.
That weekend of December 6th is still looking very interesting to me.
And..the large scale pattern setting up in the west does look like the kind that can eject many storms into our area. December may be fun…
WOW !!! has it really been 4yr..? where does time go.. and to think all 4 of those yrs. we’ve been wishing for (the big one) and a good cold snowy winter…
Sounds like this could be the yr. we’ve all been waiting for,for along time..lets just hope that artic air can juice up with a good southern tracking storm and be a repeat of March 1993 all over again…:)… I dug my truck out of a 5 foot snow drift during that snowstorm..AHHH !!! THE GOOD OLE DAYS!!
Thanks for the update, Chris! This looks like it may be shaping up to be a colder winter than first thought. We will see.
I am hoping we get that one good snow this year. The way it is starting, maybe there will be some hope for that, as well.
AS far as you Christmas Parade, well, the weather should certainly put everyone into the holiday spirit!
We woke up to rain, and more rain. And it is still raining, so, the ground is getting a good drin of water today here in Somerset. Everyone have a great day, and a safe one. Be careful as the roads are likely slippery from the rains, and leftover oil on them. Add a little extra distance between vehicles, and slow down a bit! ( I know, I know, I sound like your Mother!) 😉
The ice threat across eastern Ky has ended. Several accidents were reported this morning due to freezing rain and sleet. This forced several school systems to shut down for the day. Now we turn our attention to the snow showers. More on that coming later.
When was the last time Southeast ky had a good snow for Thanksgiving day?
My wife in Carter county had a 1 hour delay.
Alright, geez…enough with the echo already, lol.
You misspelled arctic. Most people do not know this, but you actually pronounce it with the c. Just thought I would tell you. Most news people pronounce it wrong as well, so don’t feel bad.
Please don’t blame Tim… It’s just that we have not had any “arctic” air around here in so long, we just don’t use the word enough…. I’m surprised we know how to spell snoe… That is correct, isn’t it..???
Just rain in Lexington…but A LOT of it!
Sure was bad out this morning in Eastern KY and WV. This is from WSAZ
Metro 911 reports more than 70 accidents between 6 a.m. and 8:30 a.m Monday morning in Kanawha County alone. Pile-ups have been reported in other counties, too. Check out the list of major accidents.
here’s the rest of the story
http://www.wsaz.com/news/headlines/34982039.html
Hi everyone!
It is rain,rain,and more rain down here today.And at 2:08..we have 48*…now how in the world we gonna get any snow? Please tell me the temps will drop,big time this evening! 🙂
Vinny that is how I spell it snoe lol!!!! Good talking to ya Vinny Where is our Bernie?????
this friday/saturday storm doesnt look to promising and if gfs is right precipitation would be rather light, i am not going to get too excited until a week or two into december until then climatalogically a snowstorm is very rare
Randy I know we just got back from Logan WV and man my husband stepped out of the car because it looked just wet solid ice we drove very slowly home
What a nasty day across the Bluegrass. Winds are currently gusting over 20 MPH in most reporting locations. Rain continues to fall (blow around actually). Ick…a good day to stay inside tonight.
13 days in November have had below average temps. at Lexington so far.
It looks like are chances for wintery weather are dwindeling here in central ky for the overnight and tommorow. A shot at some flurries and snow showers no accumulation though.
Snow chances look to be dwindeling for central ky. The GFS runs of yesterday were more promising for tonight/tommorow maybe some flurries and snow showers no accumulation here. eastern ky may pick up an inch or so.
make that two votes for ” intresting” from the 3rd-6th.
Today is my wedding anniversary – 7 years. The day we married in 2001 it was 70 degrees and my inpatients were blooming! That’s the flower, guys, and not the atmosphere of the wedding. 🙂 I’m sure glad this weather was not around that day.
SnoGo tomorrow ?
Anybody ?
Congrats to you both Sharon! May you have many more happy years together!
Is it going to Snow tonight?
Where is that update Chris, at least in the comments?
NOSNOGO TOMM unless it the flu.
no lake affect flow and there nothing else i see behind the main batch either.
Are you sure Rolo that you can’t scare us up some snow for a couple of hours in the morning? I would really like a snow day. If I don’t get a chance to get back on again Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. For some reason my computer won’t work at my son’s house, so while we are gone I will be out of touch. I hate it, but not much I can do about it.
Thanks Patti – he’s training up real well. 🙂
Don’t believe anything was supposed to be seen just yet behind the main batch. The disturbance expected to bring it hasn’t pushed down into the area yet. The lake effect has just started back up too.
Discussion from the Jackson NWS..
CURRENT SAT LOOP ALSO SHOWS SOME
SIGNIFICANT…BUT BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LAST
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ROLLS BACK
INTO AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IT/S
REFLECTED SFC TROUGH…CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHILE THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT…MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING WILL BE REALIZED BEHIND THIS POST FRONTAL SFC TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AROUND DAWN.
ALL IN ALL..THE NAM HAS VERIFIED WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR.
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS IT/S SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WITH THIS IN MIND…EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THEN CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORM
OF RAIN…AND OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN AS
DAWN APPROACHES. WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES TO FRESHEN UP WORDING…
AND WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ISC GRIDDED DATA TO COME IN LINE
WITH LATEST POP…SKY TRENDS. IN GENERAL TEMPS LOOKED ON TARGET SO
LITTLE CHANGE THERE.