Good Thursday everyone and thanks so much for stopping by the blog. Here we are on the 6th day of November and we have had one heck of a run of Indian Summer weather. Highs have been in the 70s for almost a week now but those days are quickly coming to an end.

Get set for a MAJOR pattern change and it is coming close to the time we said to expect it… toward the middle of the month. It may actually be a few days ahead of schedule… but who is counting?

We hit the low to mid 70s out there today under partly sunny skies. Winds will really crank up and this is BAD news for the forest fire situation across the area. We have DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES out for parts of the state as several fires have popped up. One was a 350 acre blaze in Estill county and the pattern has been keeping the smoke hugging the ground. Today’s wind will help the smoke situation out some… but may act to increase the size of the blazes.

A cold front moves in later tonight into Friday. There won’t be a ton of moisture with it so only a broken line of showers moving through. A quarter to a half inch at most and if you see those amounts a big congratulations will be in order.

MUCH colder air will move in for the weekend. Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the 40s with a mix of sun and clouds and breezy conditions.

A weak system may try to drop in Saturday night and Sunday and this may just enough moisture with it to produce a rain or snow shower during this time. Check out the GFS for Sunday morning…



That would certainly indicate the chance of a rain or snow shower. I think the chances are rather small at the moment… but it’s a chance nonetheless. Highs Sunday will be stuck in the 40s again.

Overall… we are heading into a stormy and cold pattern over the next week and this should carry us through the rest of the month. Another interesting storm will be developing quickly to our southwest late in the weekend into Monday. This one will take a farther south and east track than the current storm bringing a blizzard to the upper plains. In the short term… here is how I see the next week…



Let’s talk about that map for a moment. The first storm raging into the high plains is bringing about our THIRD Blizzard Warning to the country so far this fall. That’s pretty amazing. The second storm is one that is looking a bit more interesting as it is now forecast to take a farther southeastward track as cold high pressure builds in to the north of it. All of this may set the stage for an early season winter storm for areas just to our north and west. It is VERY early in the season to see something like this happen. Can Kentucky get in on some of this action? Possible but not likely. Can we get some wintry precip? You betcha! This may especially be the case when the precip moves in Monday and then again when it leaves late Wednesday. In between… a cold, soaking rain. Check out what the GFS is trying to do to us…

Monday Morning



Monday Evening


With such cold, dry air in place… there is a chance the precip could start out as a little sleet before changing to rain. That is certainly a long way from being etched in stone but is a trend to watch for in the coming days. The blog will continue to update this system with each post.

Beyond that… there is another storm that will roll our way by the end of next week into that following weekend and could bring more interesting forecast challenges.

Ok… I am done for now. Have a great Thursday and take care.