Good evening, gang. It’s another wild weather day in the bluegrass state. Parts of the region have picked up another half to inch and a half of rain today. Others are seeing temps surging into the low 70s. All of this is setting the stage for additional rounds of heavy rain and huge temperature swings.

Let’s start with the rain threat. The axis of heaviest rains shift to our north this evening as temps rise from south to north. The boundary to our north then drops back into the region with rain and thunderstorms increasing Sunday…

GFS

With a front in the vicinity… those showers and storms will be overachievers in terms of rainfall, and that will lead to some additional high water possibilities.

The low across the Mississippi Valley then works toward our region on Monday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms increase…

GFS 2

High winds will also be likely during this time, but the high water threat is still the main thing to watch for. Here’s a breakdown of who has the best chance of seeing high water through Monday night…

Special 3

The temp swings over the next few days will be dramatic. Check out the broad view from the European Model…

Euro

The Hi Res NAM shows a better picture from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning…

NAM

This setup was first talked about nearly 10 days ago. I said then it’s how you get Ohio and Tennessee Valley flood events. We have been seeing that, and will continue to see that, over several states.

I leave you with your weather trackers for the evening…

Enjoy the evening and take care.