Good Monday everyone. It’s a new week and it’s one that promises to bring some active weather to the state as we continue in a chilly and increasingly wet fall pattern. I know many of you are beginning to hone in on the upcoming winter season. I have been dropping hints in recent weeks that this one may start early and the weather over the next few weeks may exceed my wildest dreams.
We have another front moving into the region later tonight. This front may have a narrow band of some showers with it as it moves through. Winds will be gusty today out of the southwest and this should push temps well into the 60s and MAY flirt with 70. That will all come crashing down Tuesday as much colder air moves in. Highs will struggle to get to 60 in many areas. Another chilly air mass will mean a hard frost or freeze is becoming a real possibility for much of our region Wednesday morning. Check out the raw numbers from the GFS for Wednesday morning…
Wednesday morning should be colder than the past couple of mornings and will put a smack down on some of the other forecasts floating around out there. Much of eastern Kentucky may very well spend several hours below freezing with 20s again a safe bet in many areas. Highs Wednesday will remain chilly and have a tough time hitting 60 across central and eastern Ky. This will actually set us up for another frosty morning Thursday…
Why are some forecasts showing 40s for lows during this time? Well… they are GFS MOS lovers and have yet to figure out that the raw numbers beat the MOS numbers black and blue every time!!! 
One the map above… you will see temps warming across western Kentucky by Thursday morning. This is ahead of our cutoff low pressure that will be slowing spinning our way for Friday into the weekend. This continues to look like it can produce some big time rains for our region. Take a look…
Friday Evening
Saturday Morning
GFS Friday and Saturday Rainfall Totals
Wow! Now that is impressive and would basically end our short term drought problems across the region. Will we get that much rain? I can’t answer that just yet… but there are several models suggesting a good soaking is in order and the setup favors some good rains around here. We will update this through the week.
Another part of the rainy weekend will be the very cool temps that should come along with it. Lows will be stuck in the 40s… nothing out of the ordinary. The highs could be another story as we may not see much of a rise in thermometers from where we start out the days.
Frequent readers have noted me dropping a lot of hints about where I thought the pattern would be heading by the end of the month into November. I throw out words like “interesting” or ” fun and games” as a little code to the readers that I like what I am seeing. Me being a fan of winter and cold weather… well… you put two and two together.
Once our big storm moves out by Sunday… a deep trough will begin to dig in across the eastern half of the country and this can lead to some “fun and games” for the last few days of October. Check out the GFS forecast for NEXT Tuesday…
Yea… I know, it’s the GFS. Guess what? It has company in what is it showing as most of the other medium range models are showing something similar. Here is the European for the same time…
Nice! It takes a nearly perfect setup to get anything other than rain this time of year. It has happened many times before with Halloween 1993 being among the biggest October snows ever around here. The setup for next week is one that I will be watching closely to see if we can get a VERY early season taste of something wintry in our area. While the odds are against it, there is a chance… stay tuned!
The GFS continues it’s wintry look through the rest of October into early November. Some of the weekly seasonal forecast models I get are also looking rather wintry through November and early December! 
Do I have your attention yet?
Have a great Monday and keep checking back as we have a ton of “interesting” weather to track! Take care.
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Thank you Chris. It seems to me in the past few years we get a scant amount of snow here or there early in the season (that gets all our hopes up) then BAM nothing or near nothing the rest of the season! I’m hoping this isn’t what may happen this year!
Thanks Chris for the update…I remember the 1993 Halloween snow event very well. We had about an inch or so…we were living in another part of Letcher County at the time. I wonder how a Halloween snow affects not only trick or treaters but high-school football games (Halloween is on Friday this year).
Bring on the cold, but please no snow. I know that I have wanted snow before, but this year I am hoping for some at Christmas and that is it. I want to get school over with. I remember 1993 as I had taken my boys trick or treating and ran into snow before I got home. Got up the next morning to hear those all to fimiliar words, “There will be no school in Jackson County”. As far as football goes, that is no problem. I can remember at time in Michigan that we had to shovel the football field so a game could be played as the finals were the next weekend. Football is a cold weather sport this playing when you sit in the stands and sweat is for the birds. I know the players would rather it be cold instead of so hot. Well got to get busy here. Hope everyone’s heater is working.
The latest runs of GFS still advertise the possibility of a few flakes falling by Halloween. 🙂
Maybe this year for Trick or Treat we can ALL go as Winter Weather Lovers! And get some good use out of all our cold weather gear! Ha ha!
Cold and frosty down here in the Cumberland valley area this morning my themometer was at 30* with a heavy frost this morning…brrr.. all ears are perked to the fact that SNOW could be in the forecast in the upcoming days.. to be honest though I’m about as excited about the possible rain event on friday as well, because its so dry down here…but the snow word rules all!!!..lol..:)
Thanks Chris you have got my attention come on cold and snow I love it!!!!!! Patty I know what you mean we seem to start out cold then warm or go mild toward the end of winter maybe this is our year and that won’t happen!!!!Snow dance anyone lol?????
My thermometer hit 24.5 this morning on the Rowan/Carter line at about 6:25. It was very chilly. Truck even had a hard time starting.
Even Joe Bastardi over at accuweather is intrigued by the possible snow in the south next week!!!
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MONDAY MORNING POINTS TO PONDER
1) Is this the start of prolonged cold in the East? 2) Will the Caribbean get involved with the front end of the eastern amplification? 3) How far south will it snow next week (I say at least Beckley, perhaps Asheville)? 4) Can it hit 90 in Lax this weekend or early next week? 5) Can we see a month’s worth of rain in five days on the East Coast? (from accu.weather)
That would be great if we could get a repeat of the 93 Halloween storm. I lived in Northern KY then and went trick or treating in a half foot of snow. Best Halloween ever.
Crystal…I’m a dancin’!