Good Tuesday everyone! We have a lot to talk about on the blog, including MUCH needed rains moving into the state in a few hours. But we have to start with one of the coolest little tropical storms EVER!
Tropical Storm Marco formed in the far southern part of the Gulf of Mexico late Monday and may very well grow into a hurricane before hitting Mexico later today. Take a look at this little storm…
Yep… thats it!!!!! It is basically the size of a thunderstorm complex but is packing a nice little punch. Check out what the National Hurricane Center has to say about it…
WTNT43 KNHC 070232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER…ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE…OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA…EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE…BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1308W5_sm2+gif/023159W_sm.gif)
Marco is proving the theory size doesn’t matter to be true! 
Keep your thoughts clean people!!!! 
From mini Marco to the threat for some big rains back here in Kentucky. We have been hitting the possibility of some widespread rains now for several days and those showers will begin moving into western parts of the state Today. Wednesday will be the best day for rain and even some thunderstorms across the entire region. Check out the latest model rainfall forecasts…
GFS
NAM
The NAM is much wetter than the GFS but the GFS takes the rains much farther east. This may come as a shock… but I actually agree with the GFS over the NAM this go around. I know… it doesn’t happen very often but the NAM looks like it is having some convective feedback problems to me. Either way… showers and thunderstorms are comign to a backyard near you over the next couple of days. We will pin down the exact amounts I expect to fall with a post later tonight.
That same low will slowly move toward the southeast and may slip off the southeastern coast and try to develop into something tropical or a hybrid system and race up the east coast by the weekend. This MIGHT be able to throw some moisture into eastern Kentucky… we will see.
In the meantime… a HUGE plains storm is going to be cranking. We will be well into the warm side of this storm with temps over the weekend and very early next week trying to get to 80 again. This happens as one heck of a dump of cold air moves into the western half of the country. The stage is being set for a VERY early season winter storm for the Rockies and perhaps as far east as sections of Kansas!!!! The blog will be all over this and have some live cams up for you to watch the big snows fly out west. Ahhh… winter is just around the corner my friends!
What happens with that storm next week as it pertains to us is still up in the air a bit and is something the blog will focus more on in the coming days.
I will update again later tonight so check back. Until then… GO GET ‘EM Mini MARCO!!!!!
Take care.
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Personally, I’d go with a blend of the NAM and GFS on this one. The NAM may be too far east with the heaviest rains as those may stay south, but the GFS (in my opinion in this case) has brought out its broadbrush technique.
With the thunderstorms that are likely to be more numerous in our southern and south-central counties (like Christian, Todd, Logan, Simpson, Warren, Allen, Barren, Monroe, Metcalfe, Adair, Cumberland, Russell and Clinton) some isolated spots in those areas could pick up on more rainfall than the GFS is currently depicting—but that is a big technicality. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a report from one of those counties picking up on a couple of inches of rain out of this system, instead of the GFS forecasted 1.25″
Eh well, what’s a half inch? 😉
Rain is good all around.
=Aaron=
Thanks Chris. I agree Aaron, It looks on radar this morning the heavy rain may stay further south. I hope that won’t rob us of moisture here in the central part of the state. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take anything I can get in my yard!
Haven’t had much time to post. Since I have retired, I find that my time goes so very fast. I guess it is true – time flies when your having fun. Oh do we need the rain. I have done some fall planting in my yard and my new plants could use a nice long drink. Like I said, I don’t post much but Chris, I read you every day. Thanks again for the wonderful blog.
Rain? In KY? Nahhh….. Actually it’s very nice to see some weather systems lining up to bomb on us for a change. Looking down the road…the weather gets very very interesting….
aaron- blend does work well here.
don’t expect a cool down untill the end of the month with the trough centered well to our west.
CFS is showing some fun times for this winter.
I was wondering about the tropics. I havn’t heard much recently. This little Marco came out of the blue…(no pun intented.) I’m sure he seems little, but I’m sure the people he’ll impact won’t think he’s very small…
That is some very heavy rainfall moving toward Louisville now.
Thanks Chris…my sister, her husband, and their son live in central Kansas…do you think they will get some wintry precip?
It’s just now starting to sprinkle here in Versailles. I’ll try to shove it east before it drys up because that’s what it seems it’s trying to do!