Good Wednesday to one and all. I say thanks to each of you for taking the time out to stop by to see what I have to say and to chat with your fellow bloggers. The weather has been stuck in a rut for the past week and a half or so. That is about to change in a big way!
It’s about time is all I can say about that! 
If you have been reading along… you know my thoughts on the end of the week setup. It is one that will bring showery, windy and much cooler weather to the state and that will be a welcome change.
Exactly how much rain we will get out of the system coming at us from the east is yet to be determined. But… I can say with confidence we are going to see rain across central and eastern Kentucky Friday and Saturday!!
I have been riding the NAM wave for a little while now as it has been kicking the snot out of the GFS. That kicking continues this week and perhaps the NWS folks will realize you simply cannot use this model as the only means to issue a forecast. Of course… I have been saying that same statement for the 5 years I have been blogging and nothing has changed in that regard.
The system off the southeast coast will continue to develop and may become a sub-tropical storm or at least a hybrid type system. It will roll westward into the Carolinas as a strong upper level low cuts off and moves into our region. Check out the NAM…
Thursday Evening
Friday Afternoon
Those maps show a nice surge of rain moving in from the east and northeast as both the surface low and upper level low moves in. The surface low will weaken out over top of us as a would be tropical system moves northeast toward the mid atlantic states. That is one heck of a pipeline of moisture we are seeing coming off the atlantic and wrapping back toward the region.
Check out the setup with the air way upstairs…
That bullseye you see is a textbook pic of a cutoff low pressure! This setup looks an awful lot like one you would see in the winter time to be honest. If the above maps were to show something similar this winter… you would all be happy because we would have a much bigger precip shield (snow here) to work with because we would have more of a temp gradient for this storm to feed upon!
But it is September so this setup should bring the following…
1. Winds will be a player over the next 3 or 4 days. Thursday and Friday will feature gusty winds that can reach 30mph… especially in the east.
2. Showers will develop across eastern Ky Thursday night and work to the west Friday.
3. The best chance for decent rain totals will be across the eastern part of the state with more of the scattered showers into central Kentucky.
4. Temps will be cool and even chilly compared to what we have had the last few days. Highs will drop into the mid and upper 70s Thursday. Highs Friday will likely stay in the 60s for many areas and may stay there again Saturday.
5. Scattered showers will likely be around Saturday. Heads up to Cat fans like myself who will be hitting Commonwealth Stadium! 
6. I actually can see a shower sticking around into Sunday as well.
Now… that is as detailed as I can get for you right now. I think that is pretty good myself!
Let’s talk briefly about the weather down the road a bit into next week.
1. Temps will be in the mid 70s Monday and near 70 Tuesday ahead of a HUGE trough coming in for the middle and end of next week.
2. There is the chance for more showers and thundershowers along a front Tuesday and we should watch for a bigger system trying to crank just to our east. This would lead to heavier rains IF it forms.
3. The coldest air of the young season is on tap for the last day of September into the first few days of October!
4. I have posted several times in recent weeks about this pattern being favorable for an early season(pre mid oct.) frost. Next week’s air mass might be able to make me a winner if we can get clear skies at night as this might be one heck of a cold air outbreak for the eastern US.
5. Check out this GFS map for next week…
Yea yeah… why trash the GFS then show it when it backs up something you say mr. weatherman? Well… because it actually matches up with what the other models are showing during this same time!!!!
Take care gang.
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i really do not want a frost anytime in the next 3 weeks or so. i just got my first ripe tomatoe on my tomatoe plants today. (i got a late start on them- planted them in early june or late may, i forgot). i havent really put anything on them , except some fertalizer one time a little over a month ago.
i am ready to see some cooler temps tho. upper 60’s for highs, around 50 for lows would be ok for now.
thanks chris for all the work , and info you give us on the blog.
made a post but it didnt show up. 🙁 anyways, i hope it doesnt frost anytime in the next 3 weeks. i just now got ripe tomatoes today on my tomatoe plants. thats all i put out this year, was a few tomatoe plants, and i got a very late start then. i hope to get a few more tomatoes from them before the frost hits, so i hope we dont get frost anytime soon.
thanks chris for all the info and hard work you give us all at the blog.
Yea Chris!! I love that forcast! What else can you say?!!
By the way chris, I like you autumn decorations! That border certainly puts you in the mood for the season!
Thanks Chris for the update…nice to see a better chance for some much-needed rain.
I’ve got friends coming to town for the Red Mile final week and the first weekend of Keeneland. One of them said she looked at the Weather Channel site for Lexington and all it shows is sunny and warm for the next ten days. I guess I need to tell her to check out this blog. 🙂
Thanks for posting the sunspot info. NASA was quite a bit more dramatic with the pre-info than with what they actually said, but it’s still interesting.
Bring on the rain and cooler temps.. a good frosty morning is what we all need to get us cranked up for the winter months ahead..
Chris G in clay county….. Man your gonna have to get them tomatoes in the ground around the 1st or 2nd week of April…LOL… The harvest is almost over man we’ve been eating fresh tomatoes all summer long, not to mention all that was canned… There is always next yr. if time permits.
I’ve been praying for rain, but not this weekend. I’m suppose to be playing golf on Friday, tailgating on Saturday, and going to watch the Browns in Cincy on Sunday. Can’t we hold off the rain till next week?
Also, I have a friend at NASA and she wouldn’t give me a straight answer on what affects the quiet sun will have on our weather this winter, but hinted at it possibly being very cold.
The quiet sun doesn’t go along with the “global warming” propaganda that the government is trying to spew. That’s why they aren’t saying much. OH MY…Maybe the climate/solar energy DOES go in cycles afterall! Wow! Everything is perfectly normal. It’s just that we don’t live long enough to see entire cycles carried out sometimes, so we think it’s something unusual.
I was on record saying I expect a cold stormy Winter here. Now I think there is an equal chance of a cold stormy Winter and a mild calm Winter. We are overdue for a stormy Winter cycle, but at the same time we just came off of 8-10 months of above average precip. So we are due for a dry few/several months now. I guess we’ll see.
HI Chris! and everybody. Took a good little vacation to Florida last week, and just really didn’t do much of anything, except to rest and recharge for the upcoming fall and winter.
I know the weather down in Florida has not been good this week, with rip currents, winds, and rain, but it could not have been more perfect while we were there. We had to leave the beach one afternoon for a while due to lightning, but other than that, it was simply beautiful! IT seems that Ike sucked all the clouds and rain away with it as it passed.
NOw, since it is almost October, I am reacy to see temps get a little cooler. NOt quite ready for COLD yet, but, cooler is alright! Also, I know we could ALL use some good rain! Here is hoping that we see it, and that it doesn’t affect the CATS as they take on the HIlltoppers!
Thanks for keeping us up to date on the weather Chris! Still miss seeing you on the air, but, I will take what I can get! You are still the best!
Have a GREAT day, everyone!
Wxman, I am going to root for the cold stormy winter. As you said, we are certainly due one! And, yes, I agree that there is way too much global warming propeganda! Kudos to you for mentioning it!
Coffee…good to see you post again. Have you gotten any rain down there this month?
I don’t think that I’ve recorded any measurable precip. at all in September so far. It’s quite amazing how we went from pure drought to pure wetness and rainfall and now back to pure drought in the past 12-18 months.
Hi everyone, and thanks Chris! I hope you will bring us some rain with you- if not this weekend when you’re in for the game, then maybe when you visit WKYT!
You know it’s been pretty dry around here since you left! 🙂
The NWS keeps downplaying the chances for rain this weekend here in eastern KY. However, they do mention a stronger system coming in for Monday night/Tuesday. They even mentioned the potential for severe wx.