Hi everybody and welcome to a toasty Tuesday in the bluegrass! Our first full day of fall will be yet another warm one as our thermometers are more in tune with August than September.
Big changes are on the way later this week with even bigger changes looming for next week as our pattern gets set to become an active one.
The title of this post says a lot as I think we should start issuing watches for rain given how little we have been seeing in recent weeks. My thoughts on the end of the week and weekend possibilities remain unchanged as we see a ton of action on the east coast. It’s funny that we have to look to our east to get some rain around here!! 
The models continue to be pretty aggressive with two separate systems along the east coast later in the week. The first one looks to be a potent little storm that may take on a tropical look as it moves into the Carolinas. The second system is likely to become a tropical system as it heads up the coast for a possible mid atlantic or new england strike.
Our first system will have a vigorous closed low with it as it works against the grain and head westward into the southern Appalachians. This is likely to bring an increase in clouds and the chance for showers and some thunderstorms to central and eastern Kentucky by Thursday night into Friday. Almost all the models support this scenario… all except the wretched GFS which continues to be lost with the first system. Here is what the NAM looks like for Thursday night… 
That is a nice fetch of moisture working back to the west into the region. Check out this map from the NAM that shows the air upstairs and how much relative humidity is showing up in the mid to upper levels…
As I said… the NAM is not alone in showing this. Check out the Canadian model for Thursday night…
This particular model shows also shows the second system that slams the northeast as a tropical system getting pulled back toward the closed low and bringing some more rains to the region over the weekend…
That is probably the extreme solution… but it drives home the point about our rain chances from Thursday night through Saturday.
Temps during this time will really begin to nose dive. IF we get the clouds and rain Friday… highs will be in the 60s and struggle to hit 70 Saturday.
As I have mentioned over the past several days… there is a ton of stuff going on with the weather right now and the models are not going to handle everything and will flip and flop some more. The poor GFS just does not know what to do with the lead system and should not be used for any forecasts this week.
If you are interested in tracking what is likely to become Kyle… here is a look at the latest hurricane forecast models…
Is the big apple in line for a tropical storm or hurricane? It is a possibility and one that we will watch in the coming days.
On a little longer range note… the pattern for the end of September and beginning of October can get very chilly and very damp across the eastern half of the country!
I will probably update things much earlier later this afternoon or evening as we get a better handle on the RAIN WATCH! I also hope to have some news from NASA on our quiet sun and what impacts in may have.
Take care!
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Chris,
I wanna play “make your own weather” for this weekend in Kentucky.
Since the game is started, how about we have an outflow boundary set up on the western periphery of the tropical system as it backs off to the northwest. This outflow boundary would extend from Louisville, southeast through Somerset and down to Bell County. Then everything north and east of that line gets a good shot at showers and thunderstorms–say 70%.
I think it’d be fun to see a few flashes of lightning and some gullywashing rains this weekend. 🙂 Well, maybe make that Saturday evening!
Just thought I’d throw that out there, since that’s the type of weather I’m still in the mood for.
Thanks for your early A.M. post! Something to keep me chewin on mentally, while I sit back from work and enjoy my sub sandwich. 🙂
Take care!
=Aaron=
Chris.
I look forward to your posts every night. Can’t wait to hear your thoughts on the spotless sun! I read somewhere where the earthly heating cycle aka: Global Warming peaked in 1999; that that was the warmest year for an average across the globe and that the Earth is going back into a cool period. The ice on the north pole is melting somewhat but its building in intensity in the south pole.
Can’t wait for clouds and rain! LOL
Thanks Chris! I hope NASA brings us good news about the Sun. Like MarkLex suggests, maybe global Warning has peaked. I think we need some good news in the world of bailouts, sky high gas prices, groceries up, heating bills up etc., etc, etc! Right now that scenario
seems like a pipe dream!
Thanks Chris…there is a HUGE ridge/valley split here in Eastern Kentucky this Morning…upper 40s in some valleys this morning while it is 61 at NWS Jackson.
Central KY looks to be on the edge of this watch. We really need rain. I want one of those rains that you curl up and read a book, or take a nap, or watch it and contemplate life. One that goes all day long and soaks in. One that you can hear on the roof and it makes one lazy.
I guess I just played Arron C’s game.
WOW….the NWS inserted a 20% chance of rain for the end of the week!! And we’re still 2-3 days out. They’ve started FOREcasting again!
Chris..exactly 10 years ago we were in a period where the cold weather never really hit until January or February. I remember it still being in the 70s during final exams in December. Seems like 2 or 3 years there we had warm Winters. Exactly 10 years later we’re starting Fall off unusually warm…could Winter be warm too? I’m thinking maybe. Honestly it’s impossible to say, but neither will surprise me.
William….I am with you on that ridge/valley split this morning… it was cold here 48* !!! my kids said daddy are you trying to FREEZE US TO DEATH !!!…lol… its sad when you have to use the funace in the morning and A.C. in the afternoon…
There goes the Herald Leader spreading drought fear again. Geez. Lexington and Louisville are still both WELL above average in precip. for the year. Also, Lexington is around 10″ of rain ahead of where we were this time last year. This has been a VERY nice year weatherwise compared to 2007. I don’t think any hype about drought is worth getting started right now.
Hi there Chris!! missing you on wkyt but glad to see your happy and still kicking out a blog being a snow lover I’m super tired of the lack of snow here in the somerset area.. so I’m packing up and moving to the SNOWSHOE,WV area for the winter months as a seasonal snow maker and groomer!!! can you tell me where i can find a website that has daily and monthly weather data reports that free. i have found lots of sites but they are all pay per use. thanks in advance.. ill hook you up with a couple of free lift tickets and dinner on me if you can make it up one weekend In one of your earlier posts I noticed something about a sombrero and tequila(the Jose Quervo Games are coming up in February up on top of the mountain
While we may be above average for the year, that’s one side of the story. Let’s take a look at Lexington:
Aug: 2.18 (1.59 below normal)
July: 3.41 (1.40 below normal)
June: 3.59 (0.99 below normal)
So for the last three months there has been 9.18 inches which is nearly 4 inches below.
From a hydrologic perspective I just had the hydrologist run the KY river at Frankfort and it is currently running at 4% of normal. Beargrass creek is DRY! We have not had much rain in the last three months which has pushed us almost in the D2 category. There is no hype here. Its just a fact.
Howard does those lift tickets apply to all of us lol??????
I should get a few a month, I’ll be happy to hand them out if I have extras:)
I can’t wait to hear the details of the NASA discussion about the sunspots.
Fingers crossed the rain makes it over the mountains and into Kentucky later this week!!
COULD BE A SLIPPERY TRAVEL WINTER ACCORDING TO THIS ARTICLE !!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080922/ap_on_re_us/road_salt_shortage….
Thats all we need is to have a harsh snowy,icy winter and end up with salt shortages for the roads…oh well, I guess I better start looking for a good 4×4…LOL.. Oh wait a minute, why should I spend a fortune on a 4×4, when my ole buddy AndyRose has one..lol everyone in the neighborhood can just use his..lol…:)
The last month and a half are why summer is not one of my favorite seasons. Hot,dry and disgusting. Bring on fall. High pressure…go away we don’t need you.
you just let me know Tim
Total year precipitation does not explain everything. In the last three months, Lexington has had about 9.18 inches of rain which is well below normal. Over the last three months no appreciable rain has fallen and that has taken a toll on the rivers. Heck, the KY river at Frankfort was running at 4% of normal flow. There is no hype here…we are on the verge of being classified in a D2 drought on the drought monitor.