Hello everyone and welcome to the first day of fall! Autumn officially arrives here in Kentucky at 11:44am on this Monday. Someone forget to tell that to mother nature as temps will be back close to 85 once again.
On this first day of fall… I thought I would “bring it” with this post. I have a lot of things to look at so let’s jump right into it. 
Not a whole heck of a lot going on over the next few days. Highs in the 80-85 degree range with lows in the mid and upper 50s through Wednesday. It is pretty much that simple.
The simple weather ends there though as we continue to watch one heck of a complex system take shape across the eastern half of the country. Basically… a cutoff low pressure will form across the Carolinas by mid week as a surface low forms on the coast. Both of these features will begin to work to the west toward our region. The NAM forecast model only goes out 84 hours. Here is what it is showing for Thursday morning…
The first map shows the surface features and the precip output while the second map is showing the air upstairs. Notice the big “bullseye” over South Carolina? Well.. that is our cutoff low. It is working against the grain as it gets pushed westward by a possible tropical system coming toward the Bahamas by that time.
All available model guidance is showing something similar to the NAM.. they just differ on the timing an placement of our features. Here is a closeup look at the European model….
Saturday Morning
Sunday Morning
What does all this mean to us? Well… it means we will finally have some rain chances coming our way by the end of the week into the start of the weekend. Just how great of a chance we get will be decided by the exact placement of the above features. The models are going to flip and flop over the next few days as they try to get a handle on everything that is going on… and that is a lot right now!
Temps will come way down by the end of the week as well… especially with clouds and possible precip. A much cooler pattern is lurking for the end of the month into early October and it is one I think has the chance to bring an early season frost to this region!
As I mentioned earlier… much of what will be happening across the eastern half of the country will be influenced by the tropics. Our would be storm will get the name Kyle. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center.
It is going to be an interesting tracking week to say the least.
On another note… the GFS is SLOWLY coming around to what every other model has been saying for several days now with our east coast situation. It has been showing a good chance for showers here in Kentucky for several straight runs now… even as it still lost in the woods on everything because it can’t handle it all. Given the fact the models are coming into agreement that there is at least a CHANCE for rain by the end of the week and weekend… one would assume the NWS folks would include this in their forecast. One would assume wrong as they have it all dry… even as their king of models shows some precip. It’s a shame there wasn’t more effort on the extended forecast discussions from Louisville and Jackson. Maybe they were just too busy putting together the hot air balloon forecast. Again… I am not saying it is going to rain… but the chance should certainly be in the forecast!!
Several weeks ago… I started posting on how calm and quiet the sun has been in recent months. Here is what it looked like over the weekend…
Again… no flares or anything! Late last week I came across this press release…
NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun
Ulysses was the first mission to survey the space environment above and below the poles of the sun. The reams of data Ulysses returned have changed forever the way scientists view our star and its effects. The venerable spacecraft has lasted more than 17 years – almost four times its expected mission lifetime.
Very interesting to say the least and I plan on listening in on the press conference to see what the folks at NASA have to say. I will share that info with you when I can get it online.
I told you I had a biggie post for you on this first day of fall!
Take care.
Thanks Chris……..Another nice week in store it looks like! Maybe my son will be sitting in the rain on Saturday when UK plays his team WKU!
I’m looking forward to hearing what NASA says about the sun. That’s really fascinating.
Thanks Chris for the update.
Chris, I hope you are right about our rain chances improving this week. I have faith!! Todd spoke this morning about the high fire threat with things being so dry. He said the ridge of high pressure isn’t moving and may get stronger this week. Do you think this east coast system will push it away? It seems every summer we’re stuck under a ridge of high pressure. Can somebody explain what is involved in getting one of those evil pressure systems to ease on down the road?
The stuff about the sun is kind of spooky. A change in the solar system? Is the sun starting to lose its oomph?
To add to what Chris already said…how did that 100% dry forecast work out for ya’ this weekend NWS? Huh? Gosh…after 3 solid months of blowing forecasts, you would think they’d FINALLY start looking at the NAM model. But I guess not. That model is red hot. I’d suggest looking at the NAM before making outdoor plans, and skip the NWS forecast until the forecasters over there get it back in gear again. Unfortunately, my house wasn’t one that got the rain yesterday.
Very scary info about the sun.
We need rain so badly. I’m still watering plants every day. Thanks for all your dedication, Chris.
Thanks for the update Chris, I am looking forward to some rain, its very dry. Maybe we’ll finally have a good cold,snowy winter since the HEATMIZER has got his ball of fire on a leash !!..lol..
Well, then I guess the forecast verified in your backyard. Why don’t you entertain me and show me where these 3 months of blown forecast are?
HAPPY FALL!!!!!!! Thank you Chris. I can’t wait to hear about the sun,that is so interesting.Bring on the frost.
If you want to see where the 3 months of blown forecasts are…just look at climate data and pick any dates in which there was rainfall in central Kentucky, then look at the zone forecast products issued 48 hours before that rainfall hit. Over and over again the NWS has scrambled to play catch up and has inserted a POP the DAY OF to account for rain that “mysteriously” blew up over the CWA…even though the NAM model predicted it days in advance.
Want another example? Currently the NWS forecast is bone dry for the next 7 days. NAM is forecasting the possibility of rain as soon as Friday here. Let’s see how long it takes for the “official” forecast to finally include rain.
The NWS at LMK normally is spot on, and is one of the finest offices in the region IMO, but this Summer it’s like somebody flipped a switch and now the forecasts suck. I want to see the old LMK come back again.
You tell’em WXman, I so mad I can’t!!
Hi there Chris!! missing you on wkyt:( but glad to see your happy and still kicking out a blog:) being a snow lover I’m super tired of the lack of snow here in the somerset area.. so I’m packing up and moving to the SNOWSHOE,WV area for the winter months as a seasonal snow maker and groomer!!!:-) can you tell me where i can find a website that has daily and monthly weather data reports that free. i have found lots of sites but they are all pay per use. thanks in advance.. ill hook you up with a couple of free lift tickets and dinner on me if you can make it up one weekend:) In one of your earlier posts I noticed something about a sombrero and tequila(the Jose Quervo Games are coming up in February 😉 up on top of the mountain
there’s been some debate today about fri here’s what i would have if making the forecast.
mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers highs near 80.
Good job Mitch. I’d go with 20%, but the point is you have to cover the chance somehow like you say. Going dry while the best model says rain is very risky.
Recently, someone mentioned what the golden wooly worms mean…someone told me that it means to expect a mild winter…
it was 100% dry in my backyard so they actually got one right 😉