Good Thursday, everyone. A major winter storm is poised to strike the bluegrass state with significant snow and ice accumulations. This is a powerful storm that can produce enough winds to cause whiteout conditions, and blowing and drifting snows for many areas Friday into Friday night.
It’s not often you see the models locked in on this kind of setup…
That’s a powerful low working into the Tennessee Valley on Friday, and then giving way to a stronger low right along the east coast. You can clearly see the wind potential with this massive storm.
Assuming the above setup is correct, a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and some rain develops from south to north tonight. This leaves the door open for a few hours of icing across parts of southern Kentucky early Friday. Check out the freezing rain forecast from the GFS…
The same model run has a heavy swath of the snow that follows that up Friday into Friday night…
The NAM is also amped up with snow through Saturday…
Taken verbatim, both models indicate a shutdown snowstorm across Kentucky. Given the fact they match what the Short Range Ensembles Forecast has been indicating all along (a lot of precipitation), I made some changes on the latest call for snowfall map, though I’m not yet up to the totals seen on the above maps…
While, I am confident of a major winter storm hitting our region, I’m not as confident with exactly where the heaviest snows fall. One thing is for certain, there is going to be a super sharp cutoff on the northern and western edge of the snow shield. Right now, that appears to set up just north and west of the Ohio River, but it may be a close call. Folks in these areas should keep that in mind.
The numbers on the snow forecast map could nudge a littler farther north or south with future updates, depending on how the latest data looks.
Regardless, this is a MAJOR winter storm ready to blast our part of the world with snow and some ice. High winds may create blowing and drifting snow.
I will have updates as needed throughout the day. Make it a great Thursday and take care.
Regardless if it moves a little north or south, it keeps Nelson County in the 8-14 inch range. Sweet spot.
Same here in Menifee County. It reminds me of that old Steeler’s Wheel song that goes “here I am, stuck in the middle with you”:)
Excited about the new forecast potential for my area!
Chris are u throwing out the euro and gfs ensembles because that’s what you usually like to go by. Just would like to know your take. Both models place heaviest snow south of what the nam show
CB believes in the NW shift.
Also he is going by gfs. The gfs shows up to .50 of ice. But yet doesn’t have any Ice accumulation in any mention of his forecast totals.
I think I’m liking the GFS more than the NAM totals are a little higher for my area lol
thanks for the hard work! Im soooo excited!!
Thanks first of all for all ur hard work and overtime u put into these forecasts that we know u don’t get paid for. I am excited as I always get with snowstorms but a little concerned with ice issues. Plenty of coffee, food and warm blankets awaiting its arrival. Everyone please stay home if u can, if not then be safe and stay warm..Thanks again Chris!!!
South east ky is always bumped out of the higher snow totals
Welcome ! 🙂
Let’s hope the GFS is true for us Pulaski folk
Hence the NW Shift…
Hence the dome LoL 😉
If the upper low was a bit weaker it would be a given for snow ..but now the forecast is for the upper low coming up over my head in east tn.to be strong..well the valley surge snow killer kicks in…warm air surge..looks like all the way into east ky..before snow takes over late in the ballgame..
The backside rarely pans out for anything other than snow showers. I would bet for this area that yesterday’s snow outdoes what’s coming.
6z NAM is in and pretty much holds serve compared to its earlier run.#kywx
CB
Can you, or someone else please post the graphic? Please and Thank you.
Basically the entire state was 9-15”. Only exception was southwest Kentucky. Down there 5” or so.
SE KY!
IIRC, this week is the anniversary of the ’09 ice storm.
just sayin’
NWS Louisville issues Winter Storm WARNING for entire CWA…5-9″ for Louisville and areas bordering the Ohio River, 10-14″ and perhaps some ice accretion for areas just south and southeast and east of Louisville….Whoa!
I’m in Frankfort (10-14″) my 15 year old is about to meet his first snow shovel.
He is a lucky kid. I think My dad handed me the snow shovel around the age of 8 lol
I’ve had my son shoveling snow since he was 5years old. Outgrown 3 shovels now. Broke in a new shovel yesterday.
NWS just put out a warning with 8-12 inches for my area while the graphic Chris has posted only shows 3-8. I wonder if he will raise his totals?
Looks like another bust for SE KY according to several of the latest model runs…all the good stuff USUALLY goes north and leaves me sad down here:(
i hope it is a bust … my husband is a lineman and he works around the clock when something like this hits and i worry sick about him in it trying to keep everyone’s power on.
I work for all the surrounding co ops also. I usually “bird dog” the crews when there are numerous power outages. But I still love snow.
Yeah, I can see why some people hate winter storms and other major weather events…I can’t. I am a meteorologist at heart!
I agree, I am a weather geek myslelf. If we did not have weather events how boring would it be. I love the fact that we here in KY have four season to enjoy.
God Bless your husband. His work very much appreciated.
Don’t give up hope just yet. You are still in the ballgame.
I’m talking to Terry, btw.
Yeah, the models waffle an average of 50-100 miles the day before the storm hits. Yes, I am too obsessive with tracking winter storms…all weather events for that matter!
NWS just put a warning out for my county for 8-12 inches of snow while Chris’ graphic only shows 3-8. I wonder if he will raise snow totals?
After all the different calls on the amount of snow people are going to get. They should just say some will get a little to none and some will get a lot. So much for long range forecasts.
went to bed last night and only calling for an inch of snow in Athens Ohio and woke up to a winter storm watch and now 8″ of snow,i take it that the storm went north a bit?
Correct.
I went to bed thinking about up to 16inches of snow just to find out this morning that I may barely get any significant accumulation down here in SE KY, so I understand the waffling of the models!
Ugh. I don’t want spring, I like cold weather, but enough already with the monster storm crap. Numerous SMALL events to keep the ground nice and white is where it’s at.
Ice is the real threat here and I hope it starts getting the focus of the attention and not the min/maxxing of snow totals.
Winter storm warning here in Charleston for 10-18 inches. Biggest snow my daughter will have ever seen. Is there still a chance this thing misses us?
Not likely at all
Thank you
I can see today will have many of us obsessively checking the site and comments section (or maybe just me?) Is there a “power outage” forecast model? Still paranoid after the last big ice storm crushed us. If not, we need to make one up and come up with a good snarky name for it. NWS site has a monograph only with south- central Ky having the risk for ice, but in written discussion extends it to central Ky. Hmmmmm
You know that is a great idea. Dont think I have every saw one
Folks in south east ky i would not give up yet, the gfs may be sniffing out dynamic cooling.
Yep! Just heard Jim cantore say that on the weather channel as far south as Atlanta!!
24 hours is still a lot of time for shifts to happen, but not 50-100 mile shifts. One to think about though. Wasn’t the EURO and GFS calling for a major winter storm for our region 5-7 days ago. Seems that I saw a map that had us in Louisville in the freezing rain to heavy snow path. So models five days to a week were as correct as the last runs.
Thanks Chris. I heard Jim say on air that you had gone to bed about 4 this morning. Get some rest, you’re going to need it my friend. Also, your map doesn’t match up. But if southern Ky sees rain, going by last experience, we likely won’t see much snow at all. I hope the ice just stays away from everybody. Have a safe and super Thursday everyone. Get prepared now and stay home through this if you can. Thanks again Chris for all you do.
You’re so right, Coffeelady! It is so easy to forget that Chris’s job this time of of year is grueling with all the hours he puts in … both on and off the air. Hope he has an air mattress at work and lots of hot coffee to drink!
Thanks Chris!!
Per wpc there were initialization errors on the NAM/GFS..Imagine that..
RGEM
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016012106/rgem_asnow_seus_16.png
Is that the most current run of a model
Little waffling last night but it looks as though we wil still get the brunt of this storm. Every model I’ve seen shows 10-14″. Starting to worrying bout power outages! Lots of people around do not have back up heat
Will this be a 10-1 liquid ratio event?
That is what most models being posted are saying…at least that I have seen on blogs and Twitter. Last night I saw it could be as high as a 14:1 ratio? I don’t think it will be that high though. Just sticking with 10:1 for now.
Ashley, Louisville NWS Forecast Discussion is using a 12 to 1 to 14 to 1 range for their forecast for the I-64 corridor.
Wow! I would be in that area. On my way back to Lexington from Florida.
Be safe. Thanks for the input
Welcome back…just in time for the fun!
Acco
Hate my internet service
According to WLEX Pulaski county get a little freezing rain and rain. Vastly different. Of course the track record shows. THIS forecast is more accurate….. Pulling for you CB
These storms are virtually impossible to predict perfectly for one single town let alone over 200 miles north and south, east and west. Although the maps are showing that SE KY looks ideal for missing yet another powerful storm, anything can happen with a rapid fall in temps or southern turn of precip. I remember last year when the mid February storm (Pandora) was forecasted to give Harlan less than 2 inches with significant icing, but the final result was 8 to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow and sleet in my county which resulting in collapsing several businesses. So although it looks discouraging to see the small totals this morning, we may still get something big yet–let’s just hope it isn’t a lot of ice accumulation!
think the track shifted a tad back to the south.
I sure hope Mercer ( Burgin ) County stays in the high end totals.
Right now here in neky we have a few light flurries and 18 degrees. Still lots of cloud cover even though we are supposed to be sunny according to local news. We are gettin ready for whatever hits.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012106/gfs_asnow_seus_12.png
Sry folks..The NAM/RGEM/GFS all trended a bit south overnight and they are the northern outliers right now.
good new for some and bad news for others 🙂
Agreed Sara, I want the 20 inch + snow that we haven’t had in SE KY since the early 90s. Although, we did have about 18 inches at my house last year at the end of February, but that was several different storms worth of snow where it stayed so called and each snow never fully melted off before the next one came!
Have a feeling, Eastern Ky gets a big ole thumping
Yeah, I am trying not to get too discouraged by seeing the lower totals here in SE KY as I know southern storms like these are notorious for bringing the “Biggies”
I am sorry for the stupid question but do you mean by “outliers”
means different than all the rest
an off model run, not correct, situated away or detached from reality..lol Or something like that
Other “Big Dog” models disagree and plus they shifted south a little more overnight..
How much further south?
If you know the term “out in left field,” outlier would be similar. While the rest are closer together in thought, there might be 1-2 further away.
It will trend a little north again.
Knox Co. missed out on every significant snow event last year and it is trending the same way again. CBs map has 5-10 deep into western parts of TN and it makes a big loop up for a 3-8 spot in the area of Knox Co. We will probably end up with a couple of inches of snow and lots of rain like last years event. Last year we were one of only a couple of counties in the state getting rain while everyone else was pounded with snow. Oh well, bring spring and let the dome live down here.
Yeah, far southern KY averages the least in the viewing area for seasonal snow anyways. The only reason I average more than you here in Harlan is because of elevation differences, but the valley locations often get skimmed here in my county too!
We had some good ones back in the days, but since the late 90s really nothing significant. Maybe this thing switches over faster than anticipated and we get thumped.
I was 10 in 93 and 11 in 94 when those two storms hit SE KY hard. I had no electric or water for over a week in 94, but I was a kid and didn’t mind it! I don’t think today’s kids could survive with no way of using all of their digital gadgets for play toys (LOL)
Another model run from the Euro last night.Different site.Likey
http://i.imgur.com/foioWVA.jpg
Guess you can see the warm nose eating away at totals along Tenn and southern Ky
Thank God for the “warm nose”. The 5″ that fell yesterday is by far enough for me. I wouldn’t mind to see this thing move north of the Ohio River. Was not looking forward to a replay of last Februarys 18″ here in the Tri-State area. I will be more than happy to see mostly rain for once.
not likey 🙁
The entire state looks to be impacted by this storm and a large chunk looks to have a shutdown storm like CB said.
It does appear that where I’m at in Anderson County is in a pretty decent spot for that heavy deformation band.
Will be interesting to see the 12z model trends over the next few hours!
seems to be a fight shifting north and then south. WHO WILL WIN?
Let the south win (lol). I was only 10 when the 93 blizzard hit and we are much overdue in SE KY and East TN!!
im thinking the MODELS jog a bit, now they r jogging back to yesterday look. from LNODON EAST AND NORTH 8-16 inches what I see.
thank u all for coming to my facebook page, Friends of Chris Bailey Clay Co chapter. also join my Redneck Bunke handicapping page. im fixing post today Gulfstream plays.
Rolo, what is the sight?
http://www.facebook.com/groups/194911793852517/
What FB page? I’ll friend it. Winter Warlock
This system is still very dynamic and CB has done the best to create a map for it. A lot of potential with this system and speed and track can change the totals up or down big time.
We need a three sided coin for if it holds, shifts some north, or shifts some south. Whatever happens, seems NE of us could get slammed much worse.
by slammed you mean more snow for the NE
I seem to be stuck in moderation limbo.
Bailey just confirm the SOUTWARD trend
Do you have a map?
Yes but its run to run variance….so.still a waffle
He said just a touch south. Run to run variance.
But isnt this the run you can’t trust?
He did not confirm a southerly trend, but called it (for now) run to run variance out of the last three runs.
Nam looks to be coming in further south..Stronger..gonna be a big hit for someone
The more south the system flows. the more pummeled the NE flow will be- coastal state mega slam.
New Nam looks very little changed as to the overall plan. Maybe a shift 20 miles south east of the previous line but that may be just a wiggle in the overall profile. From my perspective the only two issues still outstanding are 1. how far west and northwest is the snow line and 2. what does se ky get? I don’t think we’ll know the answer until the storm actually begins.
Watch the temps that will be key on what SE KY gets . After starting at 25 already up to 30
Hoping for pure rain for once myself.
Yeah we went up from 29 overnight to 37 this morning already
Roads were snow and ice covered now just slush
Already in low 30s here in Harlan, so if we get into the 40s today, that could be bad for a warm air inversion spiking into SE KY tomorrow!
28 degrees in Clay…sheww got cabin fever…lol
Agree
Go South, young man 🙂
What is everyones thoughts on start time?? UPS weather department in Louisville says 4am.
To Kat: Models show this coming in after dawn.
To All: The precip totals for this storm are awesome and very unusual. Would anyone like to speculate on whether El Neeeeeeemo is feeding this system?
Thank you, i know you folks with somewhat knowlege of what is going on has to get tired of all the questions so with that being said i appreciate you answering them.
Ditto, Kat!
I learn so much from the other weather folks on this blog. Interesting to read other perspectives. Thanks!!
its about time to forget the models and start nowcasting, looks like the storm has corrected about 50 miles back to the south, i dont think chris will change his totals much, he might if anything draw the heavy snow down to the cumberland parkway, but i am just guessing, we will know soon enough
The next runs will bring it north again. I don’t think CB needs to change his map at all.
Maybe but the storm is getting close enough to start nowcasting, i hope everyone stays safe as this event can cause some power issues and possible negative temps to follow. Thats not a good thing.
It’s so hard to use the NAM or any other model at this point with the storm under 24 hours.. Gotta use short range models like HI RES and the HRRR
you’re wasting your breath….GFS/NAM/EURO….all mid-range models.
Yet, every single storm we have followed on here the past 5 years now, only 5% of the viewing audience gets what you are saying.
So CB is wrong for using the NAM/GFS to forecast his snowfall call?
not at all…his new call for snow was based off the 00z/06z runs, which were the last good mid-range runs.
When you get within 24 hours of a storm, most all seasoned MET’s go with short range models.
Yeah you are probably right.. HI RES 4K NAM did keep on the northern track…
AKA Nowcast 😉
…or with your blindfold on, turn yourself to the right 5 times, then left 3 times, right 3 times, left 4 times, right 2 times. Now throw your dart.
That could be a serious contender for what you’ll get.
Point being, this will not be a forecast one will mail, no offense to CB
Not mail, nail.
I thought it was left 5 times, then right 3 times, left 3 times, right 4 times, left 2 times.
Brian Goode in Louisville really likes the HRRR. He commented that in the last couple of snow events, it was pretty accurate.
Their snow map on the weather blog is very much like Chris’.
All.I can say is, I’ve never seen so much diversity from model run to model run…..a very dynamic storm to say the least
Yes Yes……..bring those models back South and bring Snowmageddon16 back to Southern Kentucky! 😀
Agreed, we get way too little down here. Last year was the best we had had in about 20 years for bigger winter storms, but really, we need a good hit or 2 this year!
You can have Richmond’s 🙂 Sorry, Richmond snow fans 😉
A little disappointed Clay is not in 8-14 inches, but 5-10 is still a lot of snow as long as its close to the 10. Hope the storm still comes down a little more south do not want to get ice. Thanks Chris for all your work, get some rest before it starts.
This dynamic thang’ will likely be not pegged until about six hours prior.
Wow! This all looks pretty wicked. Should be a great ride.
Thanks to Chris and all the posters for the great work and informed comments.
Are the models really showing the storm moving back south as it was before?
No
Keep up that south movement lol⛄❄
Ready for a big snow in Harlan too Crystal!
what a forecasting nightmare
CB’s snowfall map will hold. I don’t see him changing it at all.
Song of the day
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Rs4bQDZgM
I like Alabama but that particular song well I don’t know how else to put this, just rather sucks!
It can trend south all it wants. In any case, I am leaving tonight to drive down to Crab Orchard for work tomorrow so I can beat the snow.
Hi buddy!
Yo. Stay safe and warm over there in Nelson! 😉
You too! Saving lives and all.
You all are getting way to caught up with one model run. Lol
was thinking the same thing
Similar to how you were getting excited about the sudden model run trending north? It’s snow, no need to gloat if you come away in the sweet spot
You got me all messed up know your facts. I’ve said from the beginning the Nam was having feedback issues the past two days.
RK, you go get yourself a snickers your really cranky.
The Nam had a series of runs that were outliers to earlier NAM runs, the GFS ensembles and the EURO. You jumped on the NAM train and then others pounded home the idea that low pressures always follow the edge of snow pack fields.
If I were in northern KY or the Louisville area, I’d pray for a bump to the north, the northerly flow will cause a huge drop off in snow totals somewhere in that area.
What’s sad is Memphis Tennessee and northern Mississippi is under wswarning..4-6″ of snow with thunder..and here in east.tn..will be lucky to get 2..lol…snow lover like me..nightmare..lol
Tim the snow has been dodging you for years, lol
If stronger seems like it would not have shifted south. Don’t stronger storms tend to shift North?
somebody was asking about a power outage map earlier…
here you go.
http://twitter.com/severemaps
Wow.. Thanks
I leave you with this song and the South will rise again out of the Ice lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GxWmSVv-cY&list=PLat_DColE9zjuwufkhaZbVY4GaFxuhdyF
Now if you excuse me I have to go to Wal mart and buy what is left and swing by the adult beverage store lol weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
adult beverage store :), need a like button.
My bar is fully stocked for the event.
Look how far north WSAZ has the storm tracking… Surly the 8-14 band will be 30-50 miles south as they have it won’t it?
http://www.facebook.com/JoshFitzWSAZ/photos/pcb.1105565939456004/1105565516122713/?type=3&theater
Batten down the hatches! Get to the grocery! Find the shovels and boots! Many of the regular posters on here are gonna have a very good Friday with this coming BINGO! snow. Others will be disappointed. It’s a now-casting event now, boys & girls. Rodger expects this storm to intensify more than being forecasted, move more to the northwest and bring more warm air into the east. That WWA is never your friend in the winter! Rodger in Dodger
I’m all for the intensify part.
You are right wwa is not our friend but jose can fill in nicely stay safe.
This is my current thinking…Whether or not a southern trend of the low actually takes place, I think Central KY is golden for a good hit and SE KY is on the fence with “leftover” type of snowfall (AS USUAL)…most all of poor ole East TN is left out as they have been for over 20 years now!
Still a little concerned with ice potential. It seems for the system we are the staging ground for when the system flow starts running mainly to the east and then mainly north east. That north east area seems the point where it really explodes into mega snow.
Is it really an overall north or south shift, or an eastern one as far as snow map impact folks should consider? I don’t know, but am asking.
I think there could be a little icing but without a good amount of arctic air in place, which is now lacking, I just don’t see a major ice storm for anyone in KY. The atmosphere looks to be more setup for either a rain/snow mix event for temps above freezing with a wet snow for temps near freezing or below rather than trapped air below 32 with warm air aloft running over it!
Still wondering though if everyone is debating north or south, when the actual overall shift of the snow could be east. Whatever the case, coastal state mega slam seems likely.
Yeah, an overall East shift for accumulation could take place, especially if the low transfers energy to the new coastal low farther off coast than now forecasted…this would cut down the wrap around in that case. I hope the transfer of energy happens a little later with more precip over KY Saturday for a good wrap around accumulation.
I was hoping Georgetown would see another big snow, but 5-10″ isn’t too bad.
12z NAM looks good for just about the entire state. Even east KY sees a decent snowfall. Looking outside right now, it is still beautiful. Around three inches on the ground and snow still stuck to everything.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Latest nam snowfall map
If that doesn’t please every snow lover in the state, we better pray for a full blown ice age.
That seems more of an overall east shift of the snow rather than a southern trend. Hence my question are we looking at the wrong overall axis for shift?
the storm will move more to yesterday morning runs, just watch and see. NAM mov bout 30-40 miles back south with last run
Not too sure we can really weight the models as heavy this close in. Seems they are out of their sweet spot in regards to the timing now. Diminished returns.
NE states should watch this, since the more south it might go, the more energy to thump them.
Going by the latest nam that I seen, I am down to less then 10 inches now.
Since people are linking songs now, here is what I’m singing to the models that are pulling this snow south:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn-enjcgV1o
Very funny:) I have felt like that many times over the years when the northwest shift occurs one day before the snow storm!!!
JimCVG, What’s the key to embedding a video? I tried to use the embed code from YouTube and only the code appeared…
I just pasted the direct link. No special HTML required.
The gfs looks to me that it too has shifted south and east.
This Storm is less than 24hrs out shouldn’t the models be locked in on the location at this time?
Imagine how difficult it must be for all mets, including CB, to make a final call for snowfall with this storm. So much variance in the modeling. 12z runs trending a bit south and east from what I’ve been reading.
The new GFS looks basically consistent with its last run. Any differences between the two are probably statistically insignificant. The most important thing is there are no major changes to speak of with either the NAM or GFS on the noon run. Will someone please post the Euro when it comes out?
Tom, EURO is more mid range? Not sure of the Euro track record so close to the event.
Euro is typically an excellent longer range tool. It outshines the GFS typically because it is less volatile…stays consistent from run to run in contrast with the GFS that seems to have plenty of issues. The Euro gets more attention in the 3-7 day period and less as you get into the NAM’s shorter time frame window of 84 hours. The shorter range models will be talked about much more over the next 48 hours. This has been a fun storm.
All three of those models are more prone to red herrings at this point in time.
The short range models are what we need to pay attention to now…hi res, etc
Sorry it’s not gonna move southeast. It will hit just like CB has it now.
Nobody can pinpoint the exact low placement or transfer point to the big upper low forecasted to sweep up the coast.
It’s just funny all these people talking about the southeast shift when it’s just not gonna happen. Hi-res still on track for CB’s call.
2/3 of the state will get decent snow it appears. Determining the lottery winner becomes a nowcast thing. Seen short range modeling miss the sweet spots by 40 or miles.
Hi-res still.showing what it showed yesterday…no shift south
That would seem to have more weight at this point than the mid and long range models.
Hate Dave Tolleras (DT from WXRisk) all you want,but he was one of the first mets to trash the northbound Nam train.
A controversial guy at times, but he’s nailed some big ones in recent past.
The storm hasn’t happened yet.
Since CB nailed yesterday’s and the two big events last year ahead of everyone else, seems best to go by whatever CB says this time as well.
Seems though an overall eastern shift is more a potential issue than north or south, but just an observation pending CB’s update.
I agree an east shift could happen but not south.
Once again he was talking about the east coast. Him being located in Virginia wouldn’t have anything to do with him not wanting the snow to go north of him into Maryland,Pennsylvania,and New Jersey would it?
New snowfall map coming from CB. Hope everyone of us gets nailed old school. TN can keep the rain ( sorry Tim).
Lol
I’m hoping for the best for everyone. It seems like the largest snow event to hit Kentucky in a while is going to leave those of us on the edge of the state out of it (Covington).
I’ve been following this one closely since Chris announced and have been so excited. Looks like I’ll be lucky to even see flurries at this point.
Right? I grow increasingly grouchy with every model run.
This is craziest thing I ever seen. Wymt has me 8-16. Flip through channel to wkyt. 3-8. Flip on bill meck says rain. Then weather channel has me 2-6. Accuweather says 1-2 feet.nws says 3-6 All the models have me in over a foot. What do you go by. Geez
Flip a coin. 😉
Where in the heck are you located? Meck has been pushing rain for the last 24 hours for southern KY. Maybe he gets one right, but CB outshines him in big ticket events like this
Northern Laurel. accuweather has us 1-2 feet and lexington 6-10 inches. its crazy you can flip through channels on one newscast and see that drastic difference with local meds
I’m in Laurel too. Just for fun, I’m going with 5-7″. Winter storm warnings extend all the way into north central TN for 3-5″ of snow there. I think we will do ok, but northeast of here, as in the areas around the BG Parkway, will get nailed
I like what Marc says from Louisville:
“Find a meteorologist you trust, and go with them.”
This eliminates any confusion.
P.S. I recommend you follow Chris Bailey
Go with a meteorologist, not Accuweather or Weather Channel. Both are terrible for local forecasts.
dt from wxrisk and bailey are usually the most accurate but bailey has had a very drastic change is his 2 calls for snowfall makes me think he isn’t very confident
Nor should he be. Very dynamic system combo.
Do I hear an AMEN? Yes!!!!
I want everyone to get snow…but we all know how strong the warm.air is around Kentucky lol
RagSNOWrök is almost here.
Snowfall map is coming shortly!!!!! Hope everyone gets a foot or more. Think snow,snow, and more snow!!!!!
6z gfs south
Probably more prone to a red herring at this point to the event (under 24 hours).
Praying long and hard for the snow to move South!! South lovers, and Prayer people, we need God to hear our prayers!!! Keep on praying.
ECMWF (Euro) excellent mid-range model: 3-10 days
GFS’s best range: 1-5 days
NAM: 12 hours-2.5 days
Short range models like HRRR, RAP, etc.: 24 hours or less.
Peak height of storm will be around 24 hours from now. So NAM and all short range models are what we should be looking at now.
Disclaimer: Models are not perfect, terrible runs still happen within range stated, though generally the range listed is the best.
also, RPM,SREF….and only hi-res NAM at this point.
That is not as fun as us cherry picking the Euro, GFS and NAM models and then complain later that it was “wrong” 😉
isn’t that the truth…I think we both could write a list of who would/will complain about verifying models, and match probably 90% accuracy side by side. 🙂
So many models saying different things…wow lol
The models are in the best agreement I recall seeing in a long time (we’re still 24 hrs away) for a major storm and have been in reasonable agreement for the past 24 hours. I suggest not looking too closely at specific counties or cities…and using the models to see the basic idea which is a lot of snow is coming to a lot of people…or ice is likely a problem…or just rain. We’ll compare measurements when it is over. We tend to micro examine each model for changes of ten miles or so…which is basically nothing within the scope of things.
Midday update should be coming withing the next 30 minutes
Chris will prob. Put it on 27 news at noon
Nam 4k model showing over 10 inches for the ville…also 12:1 ratio, and even some 15:1 ratios
this right here is about as accurate a way to describe this snowstorm.
With the buffer added that a 25-30 mile shift in this heavy strip will mean a big difference in snowfall amounts.
Someone is going to get smacked on the mouth, and most are going to get plenty of snow. So, no worries. 🙂
http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/.a/6a0148c78b79ee970c01b8d194ce9a970c-pi
I am in Harrison County Indiana, i’ll take it!
How is it that Chris Bailey can nail this stuff? What does he do differently from other meteorologists who never see these storms?
Wkyt is going to show a updated snow map in a few mins
I’m trying to stream it from wkyt site but it won’t load. Maybe everyone is trying to watch it and overloading the server. lol
Chris Mentioned Wind and whiteout conditions at times..
I think technically, the Feb ’98 storm was not a blizzard…, and that was a storm where moisture was thrown back from the Atlantic all the way to Southern Indiana and it was a WINDY heavy snowstorm. I remember it looked like a blizzard to me. The forecasting of that storm was a complete joke..
I remember that storm. It stalled off the Virginia coast for three days. I lived in Corydon,Indiana at the time. Had about 30″ over three days.
Look how far north WSAZ has the storm tracking… Surly the 8-14 band will be 30-50 miles south as they have it won’t it?
http://www.facebook.com/JoshFitzWSAZ/photos/pcb.1105565939456004/1105565516122713/?type=3&theater
Worried I don’t like all that rain on the map Micah showed on Wkyt
looks like southeastern Kentucky can start hoping next time is a possible hit cause once again we come in the losers. temps are rising rapidly in Bell county.
Hating the weather in Harlan today too…already at 39 wishing it was our part of the state under the gun instead of the crap we are (probably) going to get.
I swear, getting a good snow is a scarce as jobs down here in SE KY!!!
New Canadian
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277587
Well, it looks like my friends and family in Western Kentucky might be on the outside looking in, too. At least us in Northern Kentucky/Covington may not be alone in our disappointment with this storm. Hoping for exciting totals for the rest of you!
It would be interesting to know what the “indices” are if we end up getting this forcast monster storm. The AO/ PO/ El Nino strength/ Whatever is negative, positive, etc…during this storm..