Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s the day that effectively becomes a Monday to many people after that loooong holiday weekend. I certainly hope you had a good one.
Our headline pretty much sums it up as the heat and Hanna will be the main weather players this week. Let’s start locally before we get to the tropics.
Headline time…
1. Hot and humid temps will be with us pretty much all week long. Highs in the 90-95 degree range look like a safe bet for many… especially in the east.
2. Why the east? Well… they have the best shot because areas farther west will likely be dealing with more in the way of some clouds.
3. Will any of those clouds rain on the state?
4. Thanks for asking… yes they will. The models have not been doing the best job in the world of late… especially our beloved GFS. The NAM has been picking up on the isolated stuff we have seen for the past couple of days and continues to show some isolated storm chances through Wednesday. The best chance for the ISOLATED stuff will be across central and western Kentucky… especially the farther south you live.
5. With or without the tropics… our pattern is evolving into one of a cooler and wetter one for weeks 2 and 3 of September. How all this works out remains to be seen… but normal temps should return by the end of the weekend or early next week then we see where we go from there.
6. Please don’t use the GFS right now. It has to many things on it’s plate to handle and with a seasonal transition just beginning… the model can get rather kooky. Will you not use it if I say pretty please? 
Hanna is a hurricane that is going to be a force to be reckoned with. She is not alone though as we still have Gustav and Ike on the board to go along with several other systems that may soon develop. Here is a look at Hanna and her sisters… or in this case… brothers!
This is about as impressive of a time as one can get in the Atlantic basin. Here is the sat…
Man… Ike is going to be a powerhouse! Here is a money shot of Hanna…
Hanna has been fighting it out with big brother Gustav. Now that big bro is out of the way… little sis is going to get cranking as it heads toward South Carolina for a possible late week landfall. Here is the latest from the NHC…
![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808W5_sm2+gif/205014W_sm.gif)
Hurricane models for hanna…
Hanna is likely to stay east of Kentucky, but may come far enough west to bring some rains into parts of eastern Kentucky by Friday or Saturday.
Behind Hanna is Ike…
Ike will soon become a strong and powerful hurricane as it heads toward the Bahamas and maybe Florida late in the weekend or early next week.
As our first map showed… we have a few more systems to watch for that may possibly get names in the coming days. I warned you about a month ago that the tropics would EXPLODE for the end of August. Now… if I could just get the weather right around here!
As always… I will update later Today.
Take care my friends!
IT is sooo freaking dry here! No rain!
You mention not using the GFS right now, so what model is the best to use for three or more days out? I sure don’t trust the EURO. What are your thoughts. Thanks
Thanks Chris for the update and the maps…this has to be one of the most active weeks I have seen for tropical activity.
gonna be another HOT one, yesterday around 4 pm. my thermometer in the car read 100 degrees…YIKES!! thats way too hot for SEPT. I’m ready for the cool stuff to start blowing in. Speaking of Blowing in..WOW!!! its definetely not the time to be taking that carribean cruise or that trip to the beach.. scary times ahead for alot of folks.. I can’t even imagine the impacts these storms will have on our economy… well take care all and I guess enjoy the pool or lake while the 90 degree weather holds on.
I was on board with a cold, stormy Winter coming up…but is it too late to change my mind? 🙂 August came in below average in precip. This was the first month to do that at my house just west of Lexington since October of last year!! It appears that after an amazing stretch of wetness..we are now going into a dry pattern and I think this will persist for a long time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see dry weather continue on into Winter now. The natural balance in our climate dictates that we won’t continue to be wet.
thanks a bunch Chris. I havent checked in in a while, and just wanted to say Im still here, and thanks for all you do!
The action in the tropics is amazing. I hope we get some beneficial rain out of these.
Man it sure likes like the dying little brother of Gustav is trying to kill his sister Hanna with his dying breath. Latest IR satellite images shows the outflow from Gustav just shearing the north side of Hanna to pieces. She’s back down to a tropical storm and if this shear keeps up I’m not sure she’s going to be able to make it.
And Tom, I’m not Chris but for the forecast I present on my blog I’ve been using a blend of the Canadian and European and just some good ol’ fashion basic weather know how for anything out of the range of the NAM. I personally don’t think any of the models have a really good handle on this weekend on how this cold front, what’s left of Gustav and how Hanna are going to interact. I think the safe bet right now is tone temperatures back from Raw Model forecasts for this weekend and to include a low percentage chance of thunderstorms for the weekend until we have a better handle of how things are coming together. Just an opinion from a recent college grad still trying to learn the game.
Shane, I just had to comment on your blog. You do a great job – and I LOVE your daily forecast discussion!!! I love how you list the various forecasts’ highs and lows and then give the “winner.” You need to include Chris in there, too!! 🙂
Keep up the great work – and most certainly keep up your daily forecast analysis!! I don’t recall seeing that any other place, so it is a treasure!
Shane, the Anonymous comment came from me, Barn Swallow. I just hit the reply to this button and forgot to include my name! My apologies! Again, keep up the great work with your blog!
As far as the GFS goes, I don’t think it’s THAT bad. It does have it’s problems, but remember it did predict Fay’s path before any other models…and it predicted this “heat wave” we are currently in pretty early. It’s doing a decent job with the hurricanes currently too. All in all, it’s not horrible. I do agree that the NWS forecasts I’ve been seeing basically all Summer now have sucked…which is unusual. The NAM has been on fire, and they keep discounting it which is the problem.
The amazingly wet spring we had was just that. (In the spring). This entire summer has been pretty dry! So if there is a balance, it should start to get wet again.
it would be a mistake to discount hannah rain now with a noticeable western shift in most of the models today.
Re: the natural balance
I wish Mother Nature would allow us to have a year with a bit of rain every few days. Why does it have to be all or nothing with too wet or too dry? My yard was lush and beautiful up until about mid-July. Now it’s brown and the ground is cracked. Even worse, the wildlife is desperate for water. We put out buckets full of water every evening and they are bone dry by morning.
I hope we get some Hannah rain!!
I will recommend not to hold off until you get enough amount of money to buy goods! You should get the loan or financial loan and feel yourself free