Gustav Grows While Hanna Waits

Hi everyone! I certainly hope each of you are having a wonderful holiday weekend. The tropics are the main attraction and I will get to that in a moment. I want to first touch on the numerous strong and severe thunderstorms.

A few days ago I made a remark basically daring the fine folks at the NWS to use the GFS exclusively for the forecast in the near term. Well… the NWS in Jackson did just that with their Saturday morning forecast. Read their discussion…

THE NAM12 SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH RESPECT
TO QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION…CONSIDERING THE UTTER LACK OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT…THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 MODEL INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD BE RAINING
RIGHT NOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY…WHICH IT Isn’t. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND…PREFERRED THE GFS MODEL AND MOS DATA. In spite OF THE SMALL
AREAS OF QPF THAT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE GFS…THE LACK OF AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MAVMOS DATA AND THE GFS TIME HEIGHTS LEAD TO CONTINUANCE
OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

They used ONLY the GFS and even worse… the MOS DATA to issue a dry forecast for eastern Kentucky Saturday. The above was written Saturday morning. Well… I said I would call out anyone using only the GFS so here it is. How did that dry GFS/NWS forecast turn out? Hmmm… well numerous severe thunderstorm warnings and severe weather reports later… I would say it was a total bust. The front did EXACTLY what the NAM was saying it would and better yet… what the blog said it would! haha Our Saturday was a carbon copy of Friday… just farther south and east along the front that was moving east. Your had to hit the convective temps in the low to mid 80s to get the thunderstorms going. How was a clear sky at 3:30 in the morning any suggestion at all that the day ahead would be rain free? I just don’t get it. I am not trying to slam any one person at all… just saying that SOME forecasters with the NWS MUST stop using the GFS and it’s MOS as the SOLE reason for a forecast. One would think getting burned over and over by it would make someone do things differently. Take me for instance… I mess up forecasts all the time but I don’t let a model do it for me!!!!

Okay… we will continue our GFS/NWS watch but I have to pace myself as I don’t want to get burned out before the winter gets here.

Speaking of… it will continue to run warm and humid for the next several days. Big changes are coming to our pattern starting next weekend and beyond as the chances for a cool and wet pattern into weeks 2 and 3 of September are on the rise.

Gustav grew into a monster Saturday becoming a strong Cat 4 hurricane before hitting Cuba. It will likely weaken a bit over land but should regain it’s strength and maybe then some as it moves into the gulf and quckly heads toward Louisiana. Here is a sat pic of Gustav and Hanna…

Hanna is weakening some because Gustav is the biggest and baddest kid on the block and is beating up on it’s weaker twin to the east. Here is a closer look at Gustav…

The latest NHC track remains pretty much unchanged with Louisiana being ground zero…

Hurricane Models…

As I mentioned… Hanna is getting pushed around by Gustav. Her big brother has done everything but pull her pigtails and that still may happen. Once big bro gets out of the way… little sister may not stay little for much longer and should grow. The latest NHC track…

The latest trend in the models say this storm may not cross Florida after all and may turn more toward the Carolinas by the end of next week or next weekend.

Oh yeah… the European is consistently showing another hurricane developing behind Hanna and heading toward Florida after Hanna leaves. Incredible!!!

Updates coming Sunday. Until then GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!

Take care.

13 Comments

Amy on August 31, 2008 at 2:15 am

WOW! The Atlantic really is churning them out! Thanks Chris for the update!

patty on August 31, 2008 at 2:21 am

Thanks Chris! That’s the way to make your point with the NWS! I’m proud of you! I guess this hurrican season is trying to make up for the lack of one last year. Is it still too early to predict what the path it will take once inland?

William on August 31, 2008 at 2:22 am

Thanks Chris for the update…I was surprised by the severe weather. But I, as a loyal blog reader, was NOT surprised that NWS Jackson issued the GFS/MOS.

Anyway, Gustav is going to be a worse storm than Katrina, in my opinion. The authorities are appearing to be doing a better job at evacuating people this time around. Continue to PRAY for the Gulf Coast.

Shane on August 31, 2008 at 2:28 am

Well NWS wasn’t the only ones betting against the NAM today… difference is I’m not on air or forecasting for a profession yet and I’m only 3 months out of college. I definitely will be paying more attention to the NAM and other models from now on though.

On to the tropics, I’m very concerned about New Orleans and the rest of the gulf coast. A Cat 4 hurricane moving onto land is nothing to mess around with. Just in terms or something we’re more familiar with around here, that’s sustained winds with the power of an EF 3 tornado. My prayers are with the people on the gulf coast, someone is going to get their world rocked down there. Also Fuel up folks, Gas jumped 10 cents in Lily today.

MJ on August 31, 2008 at 3:15 am

“Take me for instance… I mess up forecasts all the time but I don’t let a model do it for me!!!!”

Yep…we all do…but you never discuss your mishaps in forecasting…but you are so quick to point out others! It’s a shame actually.

Mitch on August 31, 2008 at 4:03 am

I have never found the GFS mos very reliable. they went with the GFS and were wrong, it happens to all of us inlcuding us weather geeks and even chris. however the dismissal of the nam seems to be a recurring theme recently.

on the tropics note i don’t like the NHC attack plan to basically stall gustav b/c they don’t know where it will go when it’s get’s inland. as of now most of the models have a N then NE turn not stationary or slight west motion.

MarkLex on August 31, 2008 at 4:24 am

Yeah….where are the remnants of this hurricane likely to go when it gets inland? Any ideas? I had to go to a funeral in Brevard NC this past Monday and it POURED rain!!!

Chris on August 31, 2008 at 4:43 am

Hi MJ! Long time no see my man. I hope things are well with you.

The difference is my busted forecasts cost the general public nothing! 😉

You seem to forget the NUMEROUS times I hand out compliments to the NWS offices. With the good comes the bad and as long as my tax dollars play a part in it… I will continue to throw out my opinions on it. Not that they are worth much!! 🙂

Take care of yourself man and don’t be a stranger.

Barn Swallow on August 31, 2008 at 12:27 pm

Good morning! I have a quick question for anyone, please.

I have been reading some articles about Gustav and in one, the mayor of New Orleans referred to it as “the storm of the century.” Is it really that bad – even worse than Katrina? Or is he just trying to motivate the people to evacuate? Either way, it is a scary thing!

For those of you who have family in its path, how are things today? My prayers are with all of you!!

Randy on August 31, 2008 at 1:51 pm

Here’s a great visible of Gustav…if it doesn’t loop just hit refresh

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis

feederband on August 31, 2008 at 2:11 pm

No question that Nagin is doomcasting after his performance in the debacle that was Katrina. Realistically, though, it could turn out to be the “storm of the century.” If Gustave reintensifies to a 4 or a 5 at landfall, and approaches NOLA from the southeast, the results could be far worse than Katrina for that city.

My kids left the Mississippi Coast this morning and are en route to Oxford, Mississippi to ride it out. I’m hoping for the best, but i am resigned that this could be ugly. My oldest daughter had just started her sophomore year when Katrina hit, and it uprooted her to Lexington for nearly two years. My youngest just started her sophomore year, so the similarities are concerning.

crystal on August 31, 2008 at 6:58 pm

Thanks again for this awesome graphic everyone check it out!!!! The storm looks like a monster wow!!!!! I am beginning to believe what the mayor says is true.
Also he said any looters would go straight to their maxiumn security prison and be put in with the general population and believe you me they don’t want to do that!!!!! I agree one of the lowest things they could do on top of this tragedy to these poor people being uprooted again in just 3 years is to go into their homes and businesses and take what is left that the lowest thing in my book and they should go straight to max security prison general population and i guarantee they would never ever do it again as someone who’s worked a couple of max security prisons in my career.Sorry for the rant.

Tim on August 31, 2008 at 9:43 pm

KYZ085>087-312145-
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-
502 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN KNOX AND EASTERN WHITLEY
AND CENTRAL BELL COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON…

AT 502 PM EDT…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOURMILE…
MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BIMBLE AROUND 510 PM EDT…TROSPER AROUND 515
PM EDT…ARTEMUS AROUND 520 PM EDT…MYRICK AROUND 525 PM EDT… AND
WARREN AROUND 530 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN…WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR…GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH…FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

Amy on August 31, 2008 at 2:15 am
WOW! The Atlantic really is churning them out! Thanks Chris for the update!
patty on August 31, 2008 at 2:21 am
Thanks Chris! That’s the way to make your point with the NWS! I’m proud of you! I guess this hurrican season is trying to make up for the lack of one last year. Is it still too early to predict what the path it will take once inland?
William on August 31, 2008 at 2:22 am
Thanks Chris for the update…I was surprised by the severe weather. But I, as a loyal blog reader, was NOT surprised that NWS Jackson issued the GFS/MOS.
Anyway, Gustav is going to be a worse storm than Katrina, in my opinion. The authorities are appearing to be doing a better job at evacuating people this time around. Continue to PRAY for the Gulf Coast.
Shane on August 31, 2008 at 2:28 am
Well NWS wasn’t the only ones betting against the NAM today… difference is I’m not on air or forecasting for a profession yet and I’m only 3 months out of college. I definitely will be paying more attention to the NAM and other models from now on though.
On to the tropics, I’m very concerned about New Orleans and the rest of the gulf coast. A Cat 4 hurricane moving onto land is nothing to mess around with. Just in terms or something we’re more familiar with around here, that’s sustained winds with the power of an EF 3 tornado. My prayers are with the people on the gulf coast, someone is going to get their world rocked down there. Also Fuel up folks, Gas jumped 10 cents in Lily today.
MJ on August 31, 2008 at 3:15 am
“Take me for instance… I mess up forecasts all the time but I don’t let a model do it for me!!!!”
Yep…we all do…but you never discuss your mishaps in forecasting…but you are so quick to point out others! It’s a shame actually.
Mitch on August 31, 2008 at 4:03 am
I have never found the GFS mos very reliable. they went with the GFS and were wrong, it happens to all of us inlcuding us weather geeks and even chris. however the dismissal of the nam seems to be a recurring theme recently.
on the tropics note i don’t like the NHC attack plan to basically stall gustav b/c they don’t know where it will go when it’s get’s inland. as of now most of the models have a N then NE turn not stationary or slight west motion.
MarkLex on August 31, 2008 at 4:24 am
Yeah….where are the remnants of this hurricane likely to go when it gets inland? Any ideas? I had to go to a funeral in Brevard NC this past Monday and it POURED rain!!!
Chris on August 31, 2008 at 4:43 am
Hi MJ! Long time no see my man. I hope things are well with you.
The difference is my busted forecasts cost the general public nothing! 😉
You seem to forget the NUMEROUS times I hand out compliments to the NWS offices. With the good comes the bad and as long as my tax dollars play a part in it… I will continue to throw out my opinions on it. Not that they are worth much!! 🙂
Take care of yourself man and don’t be a stranger.
Barn Swallow on August 31, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Good morning! I have a quick question for anyone, please.
I have been reading some articles about Gustav and in one, the mayor of New Orleans referred to it as “the storm of the century.” Is it really that bad – even worse than Katrina? Or is he just trying to motivate the people to evacuate? Either way, it is a scary thing!
For those of you who have family in its path, how are things today? My prayers are with all of you!!
Randy on August 31, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Here’s a great visible of Gustav…if it doesn’t loop just hit refresh
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
feederband on August 31, 2008 at 2:11 pm
No question that Nagin is doomcasting after his performance in the debacle that was Katrina. Realistically, though, it could turn out to be the “storm of the century.” If Gustave reintensifies to a 4 or a 5 at landfall, and approaches NOLA from the southeast, the results could be far worse than Katrina for that city.
My kids left the Mississippi Coast this morning and are en route to Oxford, Mississippi to ride it out. I’m hoping for the best, but i am resigned that this could be ugly. My oldest daughter had just started her sophomore year when Katrina hit, and it uprooted her to Lexington for nearly two years. My youngest just started her sophomore year, so the similarities are concerning.
crystal on August 31, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Thanks again for this awesome graphic everyone check it out!!!! The storm looks like a monster wow!!!!! I am beginning to believe what the mayor says is true.
Also he said any looters would go straight to their maxiumn security prison and be put in with the general population and believe you me they don’t want to do that!!!!! I agree one of the lowest things they could do on top of this tragedy to these poor people being uprooted again in just 3 years is to go into their homes and businesses and take what is left that the lowest thing in my book and they should go straight to max security prison general population and i guarantee they would never ever do it again as someone who’s worked a couple of max security prisons in my career.Sorry for the rant.
Tim on August 31, 2008 at 9:43 pm
KYZ085>087-312145-
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-
502 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN KNOX AND EASTERN WHITLEY
AND CENTRAL BELL COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON…
AT 502 PM EDT…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOURMILE…
MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BIMBLE AROUND 510 PM EDT…TROSPER AROUND 515
PM EDT…ARTEMUS AROUND 520 PM EDT…MYRICK AROUND 525 PM EDT… AND
WARREN AROUND 530 PM EDT.
RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN…WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR…GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH…FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

13 Comments

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