Good Monday everyone! I certainly hope each of you had a great weekend. It was another scorcher across the state with highs hitting the lower 90s again. The big news though is how dry things have become over the past month or so.
We had ourselves a nice little surplus of rain from the spring and early summer to work with and we are darn lucky we did. A lot of our green out there has turned to brown and we are in desperate need of some water from the sky.
You probably noticed by the headline that I am lifting my self imposed ban of talking about Fay! Why did I lift this ban? Well… it’s simple! I thought of a catchy headline “Can Fay Save The Day? and the only way I could use it was to say heck with the ban!
Ahhh… it’s good to be the boss of your own weather blog. ![]()
The remnants of Fay will be moving in later Tuesday through Wednesday and maybe into early Thursday. Our prospects of some much needed rains are continuing to increase. Now we have to figure out who gets the bulk of the heaviest rainfall… and it could be very heavy for a lot of people. We find the NAM and the GFS both bringing several inches of rain to the state. They just disagree on the exact location. Check it out…
NAM
GFS
That’s a lot of rain showing up on both models… the placement is off by a couple hundred miles, but the idea is the same. Both show a swath of 2″-4″ amounts somewhere across central and eastern Kentucky. We will fine tune the forecast Monday as we get a better handle on the exact track of the artist formerly known as Fay! ![]()
Some scattered showers and storms will be moving through Monday into early Tuesday. Not everyone will see the rains, though.
Temps will be in the low and mid 80s Today and low 80s Tuesday. After that… thermometers will take a dive due to clouds and rain. As a matter of fact… areas under the heaviest rains Wednesday may not get above 70!
The Labor Day weekend will start off with temps making a big recovery into the middle or upper 80s Friday just ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the region late Friday or early Saturday. Once the front goes through… pleasant weather should be with us into Labor Day itself.
The season kickoff for my UK Wildcats Sunday over in littlebrotherville looks pretty good at the moment with highs in the lower 80s. GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
While I am in a good mood… let me throw another winter nugget your way. This one is from our shining friend in the sky… the sun! It is said by people who are much smarter than me (not that it takes much) that the sun has a big impact on temperatures back on earth. No… not the sunny equals hotter temps kind. But, the solar activity impact on seasons… especially winter. A sun that is very active can sometimes lead to a weather pattern more conducive to overall warm winters. A quiet sun can have the exact opposite in leading to cold winters. Well… the sun is quiet… VERY quiet right now. Take a look…
Not a single sun spot or flare showing up right now. As a matter of fact… the sun is as inactive has it has been since records of it’s activity were first kept back in the 1940s. Does this mean a cold winter is ahead for us? Hmmm… the Farmer’s Almanac certainly thinks so! ![]()
I will update the chances for rain from Fay later today so check back with us. What I want you to do right now is post comments taking back all the mean things we said about the storm a few days ago! Maybe if we are nice to her she will bring us exactly the right amount of rains!!!!
Take care.
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Fay,
I am sorry about the nasty things I said to you a few days ago. I just haven’t been feeling myself lately and that just came out. I want you to know I am very sorry and ask that you forgive me.
Sincerely,
Chris
P.S. I love you! 🙂
Fay we are so sorry we said mean thing about you PLEASE forgive us…. We have the best darn weatherman in the world oh wait you said to say good things about Fay not Chris BUT it really is true our weatherman is the best….
Oh Fay, Fay, we are so sorry for ignoring you…PLEASE come down upon us in the days to come.
Chris, you’re sooooo funny…
Chris…..You’re such a nut!! LOL! But if it works……..?
Chris…….Your buddy Todd over here at your old sister station says the models are showing Fay riding up the other side of the Appalachias. It sounds like the central part of the state could be limited to the amount of rain we get from it. I’m anxious to hear what you say about that.
Thanks, Chris…Bring on the rain, Fay! We need the rain here in Eastern Kentucky.
Fay, Fay Come and Stay
We need rain for days and days
Fay, Fay come our way
and when you do it’ll be a welcome phase!
Fay,
I fussed last week that because of you my Bristol trip was going to be hot and sticky. It was breezy and quite nice. I am so so Sorrrry!
We may have TS Gustav at 11 or at the very least TD7
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/07L.NONAME/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20080825.0955.f17.x.91h_1deg.94LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-128N-664W.96pc.jpg
Thanks Chris!! Please Fay bring us the rain!
T.D Seven has been designated south of Hispaniola in the Caribbean. I’d say it will named Gustave by 5:00.
let’s hope the NAM’s hot streak continues. a huge difference in totals are out there for lex
12Z NAM 7 inches (some con.feedback)
6Z GFS 1/2 inch
Most likely is Gustav right now but the NHC will wait for recon to verify it in a couple of hrs.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CARIB&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
I like the looks of the NAM. C’mon rain!!
I mowed my yard today and kicked up enough dust to choke a camel. Usually I have to stop and empty the grass bag at least three times but today I didn’t have to stop even once and the bag was only half full. My yard is dead. 🙁
C’mon Fay!! Don’t tease us by getting oh-so close and then not raining here in Bourbon County!!
WOW! Is that really a picture of the sun?? Amazing. I have never seen it when it isn’t flaring.
We have Gustav as was expected. Probably looking at 50KT winds and a pressure around 996mb
Recon now reporting that gustav already has a closed eyewall.
IS THAT RAIN ON THE RADAR?!!! OH MY! IT IS NOT RAINING YET IN WILMORE- BUT I AM JUST SO HAPPY FOR THE FACT THAT IT IS RAINING NEARBY AT LEAST! KEEP IT COMING!!!!!!
:)……….its raining its pouring this whitley county boy is to happy to be snoring..LOL..LOL.. thank goodness for the cool-er rainy day shaping up…
………
as for the sun, lets hope she takes a LONG WINTERS NAP!! and we’ll get our big one this yr.
Hi Chris I read your blog every single day but dont comment a lot. I just wanted tosay that it actually raining at my house and thundering. I am in Morehead and it has been so dry at my house. I havent cut grass for 4 weeks and it really isnt in desperate need yet because of the lack of rain… Well not sure how much rain will fall but any is welcome right now..
hvy storms with lots of bolt lightning and hvy rain moving from versailles to lexington. gustov looks impressive today
Just heard thunder!!!! No rain at UK yet, though.
It’s raining at UK!
Lightning out the back door in Gtown seems to have stopped. Not a drop of rain here yet.
There is rain all around me and I can hear the thunder but no wet stuff. Come on Fay please give us a little everything is so dry.
Did anyone notice the 4:00pm advisory from Hydrometeorological prediction center here is a little c/p
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA…NORTHERN GEORGIA…EASTERN TENNESSEE…EASTERN
KENTUCKY…THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING….WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.
thats alot of rain
gustov has the potential to be a cat 4+ if it gets over the open gulf.
Mitch i hope not a cat 4 would be awful.