Good Monday everyone and welcome to a week of big weather changes. We have been advertising a change to normal or below normal temps for some time now and all that goes down over the next several days. Getting to that point means more of the same with scattered showers and storms in the short term.

More on the showers and storms in a bit. Let’s talk about the cooler brand of air and the major pattern change that is underway. You noticed it this weekend as temps were generally in the 80s for highs. The real change toward cooler kicks in for by the middle of the week behind a strong cold front that swings through here. This is a VERY pleasant airmass that will set up shop around here and for much of the midwest and eastern half of the country.

Check out the cool look on the GFS Ensembles Temp Departure maps…



The Operational GFS has a histlory of being way to hot . Even in this hot summer… it was routinely overshooting temps by several degrees. Look at the numbers from this model for mid week…


I told you we had some very pleasant air coming our way. Highs Wednesday and Thursday may not top 80 for a few spots with lows dipping into the 50s by Thursday and Friday mornings. Wow! Talk about a big time change.. that might have visions of fall dancing in our heads.

Temps will rebound a bit for Friday into Saturday ahead of the nest push of cooler air. The setup for the weekend doesn’t really look very much like August as a low pressure dives in from the northwest. It then tries to ramp up a bit once into the mid atlantic states by Sunday.  Here is how the European Model sees it…



Scattered storms and some general rains will be possible over the weekend. Temps by Sunday and Monday should be back to below normal with a chance at being almost cool on a rainy and cloudy day.

Another thing to look at on that map is the amount of chilly air already beginning to build into much of Canada. I always like seeing that this time of year as that can lead to an early fall build up of snow across northern Canada.

This overall setup of the heat ridge out west and a trough in the east looks to carry us through the rest of August.

Back to the short term weather… showers and thunderstorms will continue to come in waves today into Tuesday. There is likely to be a fairly hefty cluster of storms rolling across the region later today or tonight. This could cause some issues with heavy rain and possible severe weather.

Your trusty tracking tools…










I will update things as needed and send out quick thoughts and any warnings via twitter. Follow me here: Kentuckyweather or follow along in the twitter feed on the right side of the blog.

Have a great Monday and take care.