Hello everyone and Merry Christmas in July! Since the weather is about as boring as the middle of Summer should be… I thought it would be a good post to have a little fun with and start looking loooong range toward that all important Christmas forecast.
If you have been a regular follow of my blogging skillz… you know I am a winter and Christmas lover. So… I am prone to once and a while looking way down the road with some of the seasonal models. There is one model known as the CFS that will actually show daily forecast maps for several months in advance. Well… for those of you already dreaming of a white Christmas.. I give you….
CFS Christmas Morning
CFS Christmas Evening
Now… this is strictly for fun and games and to pass a little time during a boring summer pattern. Those maps are for your entertainment purposes only so don’t take them to heart! If we could only get to about Christmas Eve and the short range models look like that… we would be in business.
On a slightly more meteorological sound note… we are getting close to the time of year when I start peaking at some of the global weather indicies and how the year to date is stacking up against prior years. From time to time, you hear me reference the Pacific Ocean and how the waters there have a huge impact on the weather across the USA.
Here is the latest map of the temperature anomaly map for the Pacific…
The red on the map shows waters that are warmer and normal while the blue shows areas that are cooler than normal. You will notice I have outlined two areas in red boxes.
Area 1 shows emerging warmer than normal waters off the South American coast. To the west of that you can still see the remnants of the La Nina we are coming out of. The seasonal models all show this part of the Pacific continuing to warm and some have this warm enough to meet the threshold for a weak El Nino. That is certainly something to watch for in the coming months. Going from a fairly strong La Nina to start the year to a weak El Nino to end it is not that common. 1976 is one of the very few that matches up with this trend and that turned out to be one of the coldest winters on record around here. But… that doesn’t mean that will happen again even if the Pacific matches exactly because the Atlantic has a lot to say about our winters too.
Area 2 shows a very warm pool of waters a few hundred miles off the western part of the US. To the north of that you will see colder than normal waters in the Gulf of Alaska. If you are wanting a good winter around here… you really want to see that warm pool move north and take up shop in the GOA as we head into fall and winter. It would appear to be migrating that way so it will be something to follow.
Wow… I actually got a post with some science fiction and some actual science! Yee haw!
In the short term… it is going to be gettng a little toasty as we head into the upper 80s Tuesday then some low 90s for the rest of the week with a few storms and cooler weather for the weekend.
Take care and Merry Christmas in July!
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I have first dibs on the shovels when they are put out at Meijer, if I’m not already too late.
Any further word on the Atlantic blob that may be the next tropical storm? We are leaving for Myrtle in 10 days.
Thanks Chris for your continued dedication to us weather freaks.
Chris……..Your post makes for a very exciting in an otherwise pretty boaring weather week! Thanks for that!
Have a nice day!
Thanks Chris…and Merry Christmas in July!!!! 🙂
Chris…that’s the funniest thing I’ve seen on a blog. Thanks for the chuckle. It’s even funnier that the Christmas chart shows a major Winter storm…how crazy would it be if that actually comes to pass? 😉
Wow, Christmas in July! I’m always glad to celebrate Christmas, and the possibility of a little snow in December always gets me excited!
Thanks, Chris.
Merry Christmas in July Chris and everyone.Is it time for Christmas in July on QVC?????? I love winter and Christmas time so much.Chris you have me wanting to break out the Christmas vacation movie.Thanks so much for the charts very interesting I hope we have a cold winter and tons of snow or just any snow lol!!!!!!!!
Chrisy the possibility of any snow gets me excited too.I am a big kid i guess.
Does anyone else have the sinus thing?Mine are killing me.A hard freeze and a good snow would cure me!!!!!! Again Merry Christmas in July.
That was a fun post. Very refreshing.
we’ll have to watch for strong waa with that set-up christmas morning.
i continue to think that there are thunderstorm chances fri/sat from that florida wave, no other takers so far we shall see.
Ha Ha! Thanks for the update, Chris! I enjoy having Christmas in July sometimes! Businesses have it for sales, so why not the weather? It is partly cloudy here at the noontime hour, and the temp is 84. Winds are still out of the NNE at about 8, so it is still pretty comfortable outside at this point.
You started the move yet, Chris? Looks like the best days for it were yesterday and today! Than, according to you and TG, (and Todd) it’s gonna get hot. Ah, well, it is July. but I like the way YOU are thinking aobut the weather. Maybe this winter we might be in for some surprises, like in 1976…..just a thought!
Have a great afternoon, everyone, and Merry Christmas to you, too, Chris! 😉
Love Christmas in July- if only that would hold true. Maybe we will have some luck this year for a really big one.
So I guess our little trocial wave in the Atlantic has started to fizzle out. There is still a slight chance of reforming…but it was intersting while it lasted. I guess I’ll have to follow the next storm.
Chris – what website do you use to compare this years weather patterns to past years?
WOOHOO…if only it could happen that way…..anyway, just hope the snow dome doesn’t make a return visit!!!
Chris,
I love Christmas in July. Thanks for the great info. Love the scientific stuff. Keep it coming and keep up the good work. I have made this site my homepage.
I LOVE Christmas in July!!! Thanks so much for the post. I’m getting excited already!!
the dome has never left EastKyEMT at least over knox whitley laurel area
Many Christmas in July blessings to you all. Thanks Chris for the fun in weather science. It really makes these hot, muggy summer days seem a lot easier if we can get a winter like that,Woo-Hoo!!! We’ll be doing your snow dance with you Christmas Eve. Today It’s been in the high 80’s with light ENE wind in Monticello and will probably hit the low 90’s thurs. and fri. It’s gonna be a scorcher. Have a great evening Ya-all.
Travis… I have a bunch of sites I use to compare years. Too many to post right now. Plus.. I can’t give away all my trade secrets! 🙂
Take care.
testing….
WELL GLORY!!..lol.. I finally am getting a post through, after donating a gallon of blood, 2 arms and a leg…LOL..LOL..JUST KIDDING…
I apparently have been having major internet issues..hopefully they are cured now..
SO..Christmas in july? sounds good to me. I love Winterweather talk any time of the year..lol..and that Christmas morning map would be about like winning the lottery..lol….well lets hope this comment posts,if not I give up..
The weather here along the border has been nothing short of about perfect for the past couple of days. temps in the low 80’s. I am not really looking forward to those mid 90’s and high humidity returning. hopefully that wont last long.
Tim
east Whitley
and temps. in the low 60’s at this mid-night hour.
Tim, I have try so many times to comment I don’t have many teeth left lol. Chris Im drving my husband crazy he going to take my computer if i don’t get my Chris Bailey blog back…
Oh my goose Chris it work
I just had to try this again that was Oh my gravy not goose I got a little excited SORRY….
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