Hello everyone and Merry Christmas in July! Since the weather is about as boring as the middle of Summer should be… I thought it would be a good post to have a little fun with and start looking loooong range toward that all important Christmas forecast.

If you have been a regular follow of my blogging skillz… you know I am a winter and Christmas lover. So… I am prone to once and a while looking way down the road with some of the seasonal models. There is one model known as the CFS that will actually show daily forecast maps for several months in advance. Well… for those of you already dreaming of a white Christmas.. I give you….

CFS Christmas Morning




CFS Christmas Evening


Now… this is strictly for fun and games and to pass a little time during a boring summer pattern. Those maps are  for your entertainment purposes only so don’t take them to heart! If we could only get to about Christmas Eve and  the short range models look like that… we would be in business.

On a slightly more meteorological sound note… we are getting close to the time of year when I start peaking at some of the global weather indicies and how the year to date is stacking up against prior years.  From time to time, you hear me reference the Pacific Ocean and how the waters there have a huge impact on the weather across the USA.

Here is the latest map of the temperature anomaly map for the Pacific…




The red on the map shows waters that are warmer and normal while the blue shows areas that are cooler than normal. You will notice I have outlined two areas in red boxes.

Area 1 shows emerging warmer than normal waters off the South American coast. To the west of that you can still see the remnants of the La Nina we are coming out of. The seasonal models all show this part of the Pacific continuing to warm and some have this warm enough to meet the threshold for a weak El Nino. That is certainly something to watch for in the coming months. Going from a fairly strong La Nina to start the year to a weak El Nino to end it is not that common. 1976 is one of the very few  that matches up with this trend and that turned out to be one of the coldest winters on record around here. But… that doesn’t mean that will happen again even if the Pacific matches exactly because the Atlantic has a lot to say about our winters too.

Area 2 shows a very warm pool of waters a few hundred miles off the western part of the US. To the north of that you will see colder than normal waters in the Gulf of Alaska. If you are wanting a good winter around here… you really want to see that warm pool move north and take up shop in the GOA as we head into fall and winter. It would appear to be migrating that way so it will be something to follow.

Wow… I actually got a post with some science fiction and some actual science! Yee haw!

In the short term… it is going to be gettng a little toasty as we head into the upper 80s Tuesday then some low 90s for the rest of the week with a few storms and cooler weather for the weekend.

Take care and Merry Christmas in July!