Good Saturday and Happy Kentucky Derby day. We have much warmer air surging into the region today, and this is bringing an increase in showers and thunderstorms. We’re likely heading into a stormy pattern in the coming days.

Here’s today’s breakdown:

  • There’s a small chance for a shower early as the warmer air moves in.
  • Afternoon highs hit the upper 70s to low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds.
  • The threat for thunderstorms increases from late this afternoon into the evening. Timing the arrival of these storms is the key to the Derby. It’s a very close call.
  • The evening storms can be strong or locally severe with hail and high winds.

I’ll have your tracking tools in a bit.

The threat for scattered storms continues into Mother’s Day with highs generally in the 70s.

We have to watch the Monday night- Wednesday period for the possibility of severe storms and torrential rains…

Canadian

The European Model insists on a stronger cold front moving in later this week…

Euro

It also brings a cool shot for the weekend…

Euro 2

Other models aren’t as strong with that shot of chill, and keep us in a pattern of storms rolling in from the west…

Euro 3

I have you all set to do some Derby Day storm tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Have a great Derby Day and take care.