Good Thursday to one and all. We have a big blast of winter blowing into the region today as an arctic front races in from west to east. A drastic drop in temps will be accompanied by a band of snow and snow squalls that may cause widespread travel issues later today into Friday.
There isn’t much more I can say about what’s coming our way over the next few days. This system continues to progress very nicely toward my thoughts from several days ago and that lends confidence to the overall forecast. That said… I’m certainly not about to do a touchdown dance at the one yard line. 😉
This is a robust upper level low sweeping on from the west today. It is taking on a bit of a negative tilt and this means there should be some tremendous lift out ahead of it. Take a look at this bad boy on the GFS…
There will be plenty of rising air on the nose of that disturbance punching in from the southwest. That lift is directly behind the arctic front and should cause a swath of snow and squalls to develop. You can see that enhancement on the GFS…
That could be a wicked band of snow developing behind the boundary as it rushes eastward. What does it all mean for you? Let’s break it down…
– The arctic front sweeps in from west to east today. It’s impossible to time its arrival for every city. But it should be nearing Interstate 65 by early to mid afternoon. Into the I-75 corridor around the evening rush and then clearing eastern Kentucky by 7 or 8 this evening.
– Temps will spike into the 40s to near 50 ahead of the front and drop some 20-30 degrees in just a few hours once the front passes where you live. Most areas will be in the upper teens and low 20s by late evening.
– A band of snow will be right behind the front and this band will bring moderate to heavy bursts at times. Travel conditions will quickly go downhill.
– Widespread snow showers and squalls will then carry us through the overnight into Friday with the greatest concentration in the central and east.
– Let’s forecast a general 1″-3″ of snowfall during this time. Locally higher amounts are more than possible for areas getting in on the bursts of heavier snows. There may also be some areas coming in on the low side of things. A map from me wouldn’t do much good because it would be impossible to draw boundaries with a setup like this.
– Winds will be a big time player as gusts range from 30-40mph Thursday evening into early Friday. This will create blowing snow and white out conditions at times. Wind chills may go below zero.
– A clipper will arrive late Saturday into early Sunday and should have a swath of accumulating light snow setting up somewhere across the state.
All the tracking tools have their own home at the top of the page. Radars, current condition maps and weather cams have the entire state covered. Just click the tabs up top to check out what’s going on. You can also upload weather pics for the world to see.
I will have updates through the day and will be a tweeting machine. We also want to hear from you and what’s going on where you live, so leave us some detailed reports. You guys are the backbone of this site and your updates really allow the weather community to get a grasp on what’s actually happening out there.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
Looking at the radar this morning…is this system moving quite a bit faster than expected? Would that put the precip ahead of the front and keep it mostly rain? My teaching wifey would really love a four-day weekend.
Good morning Chris & all the weather-watchers. 🙂
Thanks for the updates Chris. Looking forward to watching it all unfold today. Not looking forward to picking up kids in the middle of it though…. but everyone be careful out there! I will be the one driving 5mph in front of you today. 😀
Sorry some of the other viewers were rude on the other page!! Some people are quick to judge and long to forgive. Have a good one and come on Snow!!
I am sticking to my forecast of 2-4″ over central KY, 3-5″ in mountains. Yes, I know NO ONE else has predicted numbers this high, but even LMK bumped up their numbers from MAYBE 2″ to seemingly 1-3″.
NWS louisville has bumped their numbers up this morning also.
Where do you consider your far west line for Central KY to be?
I’m starting to think you may be onto something. I’m going to stay with 1-3″, but I admire your boldness. 🙂 Get ’em boy.
Also, check this out for an interesting read:
http://www.theandersonnews.com/content/kentucky-winter-flashback-1994
However cold it ends up being tomorrow morning.. imagine subtracting 60 degrees from that and you have 1994. (!) Holy cow.. that was intense.
WXman, you have no idea how much I appreciate your link to that article!!
That seems like yesterday to me because back in 1994, we had just brought our beloved son home from the hospital (long, long story of his birth and near death,etc – things that I know aren’t relevant to a weather blog so I apologize for bringing them up but they are relevant to my memory of the weather at the time) That entire period of our lives has been forever etched in our minds – it seems just like yesterday! We had just got him home, then the weather hit and it was terrible having a sick new born in those awful conditions! He has heard about the weather at the time all of his life and now, I can show him this piece! 🙂 Thank you so very much for posting it!
Chris, as always, thank you for your update! Everyone, have a good day and stay safe and warm in this coming winter weather! Hope all of your four legged family are as well! 🙂
All I can say is that the Winter of ’94 looked awfully rough from the surf line up off of Waikiki!!!! 😉
Yes. Thanks for this!
I’m almost positive I remember this storm that hit KY & I was living in western NC at the time; we were under winter storm warnings there & I was so excited for snow…….BUT……..The WSW was cancelled. You could see the radar on the weather channel & all of the moisture was going straight up from MS, GA & AL into KY, completely missing western NC. The national news was on and I vaguely remember Lexington & Louisville being mentioned and there was a helicopter flying above the interstate showing cars stranded in deep snow. It looked like spaghetti junction and a SEA of white. But western NC was supposed to get that storm and it was a total bust for us. I was almost 22 yrs old and watching The Weather Channel and coverage of the storm.
I remember waking on MLk day and turning on the TV to see LA in ruins from the quake and then the local station broke in with “we interupt this special report for a special report” to cover the big snow storm that hit that night. Then it got cold, really cold.
BRUTAL cold. I was outside during the coldest of the cold early mornings, driving to the airport. I measure every so-called “arctic blast” we get against those days in Jan. ’94. That may be unfair, as I realize that was literally historic Ohio Valley cold, but still…
I remember the Lexington news stations were calling people in Alaska and asking how to deal with such extreme cold. Absolutely unforgettable. Will probably never see that in the Ohio Valley again, in my lifetime.
Thanks for the article. I remember that year as I had to work the Emergency Operations Ctr. for Lexington….it was a long couple of weeks. The army picked me up in a Hummer just to get me there. It was a bad weather situation….and Lexington is LOOOONNNNNGGGG overdue for another one.
Thanks for all you do, Chris! Looking forward to seeing what the day holds!
Are the local mets here in the nky area out of the loop or just underhyping this system? There saying a dusting to an inch total with less the further south you go and the more north of the river. We are also still without a WWA here as well.
If it pans out, BM is going to look silly, since continues to downplay the system and came across as condescending on the 11pm news last night.
So thats no different than he normally looks.
Or he could be right — this thing may turn out to be nothing. Cb has been known to be wrong before (like 3 weeks ago)
I may break down and look at BM’s blog this morning. When he goes against the grain of sensible forecasting he normally has some Sarcasm directed towards a certain forecaster.
on the current conditions page, the front is blasting thru western ky temp. down to 30 with winds of 15 with snow on radar…
THIS JUST IN!!!! I received text from WDRB in Lou. that Jeff. County Public Schools might be letting out early due to the weather. Am I missing something here? Current radar shows spotty rain showers to our west with the bulk of the moisture in Ill. Moving to the northeast. I can see north of the river getting in on the action, but not south. Ankle biter at the best and the clipper will miss all Ky to the north on Saturday. Have a great day and THINK SNOW!!
I agree…..strange!
looks to me like the snow we are going to get is coming in from tn. The stuff north of the river looks like it will stay north of the river. If you go to http://www.weather.com and go to the next 6 hours feature on the map you can see the moisture coming up from tn later in the afternoon.
They are more west, so probably less luxury of time to debate closing early or not, where counties further east do.
HMMM: Do I need to get salt or not?
NWS Louisville says…. AREAL AVERAGE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST…BUT THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION…SNOW SHOWERS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES… ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
I was wondering the same thing 🙂
Does anyone have any predictions on when you think the snow will take over east of i-75? I believe it’s snowing in extreme western ky right now. Just trying to figure out how fast or slow this system is moving.
Is that snow on the weathercam in Paducah???
…or rain?
i was just wondering the same thing??
Thanks for the updates Chris!
The radar earlier this morning showed snow getting very close to Paducah around 7. There was some rain ahead of it. Also they were talking about the inpact of the winds and snow together during evening rush and later. Folks, this is going to be a dangerous situation for everyone. Please take note and stay tuned to Chris, or other media for updates. (Chris will be the one spot on, of course! 😉 )
Got a daughter travelling this morning for work. Hope she gets back to Columbia before the weather moves in. take care, and THANKS CHRIS, for all you do.
I just hope it waits till after 6 to start. I want all my Emp. to arrive home safe.
the radar looks like the snow is moving northeast, thus could potentially miss all of Southeast KY, wonder if this thing will be a total bust for London/Corbin area ????
That is what I thought when I looked at the radar also.
no worries the precip will develop as the front moves east..
Started a few min’s ago here in Critt. Co. Started out light sleet now and right now getting very light snow showers.
NWS offices in Wilmington and Huntington still napping. The rest of the state under Winter Weather advisory but we in far northern (Mason County) are just under Special Weather Statement. *Sigh*
Does anyone know when the new nam comes out ? We should know more then.
most of western ky in the 30’s now and radar is lighting up!!!
From Hartford to Leitchfield there’s an 8-degree temperature difference, and that’s just about 40 miles.
Jefferson County (Louisville) dismisses 2 hours early.
We are at http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm
come join the chat as we wait for the snow to arrive 🙂
BY the way the radar is setting up with the heaviest prec. bands setting up pretty far north of the upper low center I feel like around the river and north to indy may be in for a 3-6 event! It looks like it will be an intense few hours this evening for the southern people all the way down into north TN,but i feel like .5 -1 inch will the norm for the southern half. The impact will be tremendous throughout the state though the roads will be a mess this evening everywhere!
I work in the automotive industry as a service adviser /manager in a dealership,and the lack of maintenance that most cars receive and the TIRES people drive around on shock me sometimes! A good set of snow tires folks can mean the difference between your loved one(child,husband,wife ETC) being home safe or in an accident. Please check your tires folks(use a penny is the old trick,if you can see all of Lincolns head your tires are not safe). also remember that most cars today are front wheel drive, make sure that the best tires are on the front for the best traction!
first off NOBODY atr NWS napping, geesh a trace to 2 inches has some acting like ARMAGEDON!!!
fact is as CB said impossible put out a map, why? cause it like march weather as far as the precip that coming.
fact is 2500 feet higher only places on 2 inches IMO, yea u might get a MARCH TYPE shower late tonite put down inch or so in valleys. but fact is there NOTHING TO SEE HERE unless ur somebody that been in a coma and never seen a snowflake.
warm air going funnel back in sooner that later, this is not a ARTIC OUTBREAK that been mention by a few for past week or so. nopt rednecking just stating the facts.
ill give u ther WE AINT HAD NOT WINTER YET sso we better be careful card, but im not sure this is ADVOSORY level for widespread coverage that u see.
that jkust ROLO opinion.
ROLO since when are you a kill joy lol…..jk!! I’m hoping you’re wrong and we get several inches but value your opinion just the same 🙂
Chris tweeted this a bit ago:
New run of the NAM model shows a wide swath of heavy snow developing from northern Tennessee through much of central/eastern Ky later today.
So why does he think one thing, then everyone else another? While I will admit I know nothing about reading those maps and models, I can’t believe that the data from them is so wide open that it can be interpreted in so many different ways….
Forecasting around here sometimes entails more than just what the models tell you. The people that forecast weather for this area have become familiar with the twists and trends that our area seems to be famous for. This, in my opinion, is why Chris is by far the best around here because he has enough sense to take hard facts and figure out what we can expect from experience. Just my opinion 🙂
Where have you been? Not read anything from ya inawhile..then you come out of the blue , ,,YES, you are correct, its not the end of the world,,but we do have a chance to see a little snow for once this winter!!!! I wish we had 6+, but I do get a little excited about some snow….I’m with you on the “ARTIC OUTBREAK” (sorry chris, but for me that would mean we have really, really cold temps for a extended time period)…A weekend of some 20 degree weather doesnt equal “ARTIC OUTBREAK”…
Unless U R forecasting it for ALL of next week????
No longer snowing here in Critt. Co. didn’t get a dusting. Just very windy and cold.
Does anyone know an approximate time on when this thing will arrive around I-64? I have to make a trip to Winchester at 3pm and I am becoming concerned about the timing of this stuff. Oh and Wolfe Co. schools will be dismissing at 1:30!!
Yea, I think you’re right. I mean, what’s an inch or two of snow falling heavily with 30 to 40 mph winds and near white out conditions. What are they thinking issuing a winter weather advisory with those boring conditions that people can easily drive in?
I posted on this, but, I guess it got lost, lol…..anyway, I like the sarcastic jab. Common sense doesn’t always work with everyone Mark =-P
Looks like things lighting up on the radar….With cold blast and upslope the snow should really let loose later on here in SE Ky. just hope the kiddies get home safe and sound before the switch.
Wow!! Finally have a Winter Weather Advisory for Mason County…16 hours after everyone else! I have learned over the past week that I should not get any weather information from anyone but Chris Bailey!!! He’s called it from the get go 🙂
To me its starting to look like we’re gonna get dry-slotted on this thing. Hoping the upslope kicks in and the radar starts filling in, or this may be a bust… 🙁
Anything Yet?
Radar definetly not looking promising for those of us here in the Bowling Green area 🙁
They are bumping up the WWA from 4pm to 1pm….they are reporting a quick changeover in CKY and once again I think we have heard that already….ahem, CB you ROCK!
Just noticed that NWS office in Louisville has upped start time for snow here in Louisville by noon.
Looks like a couple more hours or so for Lexington imo.
Temperature has dropped 4 degrees in the past 40 minutes at my location down to 39 with showers. Expecting a changeover within an hour.
Observations:
In the last forecast discussion update from LMK, the forecaster kept referring to a Winter Storm Watch. I think this is in error and she (or he) meant to use WWA for Advisory instead.
Temps. in west KY are 20 degrees colder than they are in Lexington. The sub-freezing air is coming in FAST!
Like I mentioned yesterday, roads will be FINE around the LEX area until sunset. After sunset it’s going to get interesting.
Saw the same thing and thought the same thing. Looked it up in their glossary.
WSW means ‘winter storm message’. I agree that looks confusing.
NWS Louisville just bumbed up WWA to right now. However, earlier this morning they had 1-2″ with isolated 3″ amounts. They have now back down from that and said 1″ amounts on average with isolated 2″ amounts. Apparently they aren’t liking the new data coming in as much as they did before.
I will also hand it to WHAS-11…they have been saying an inch or less for the entire area the past 4 days. Never have they once come out and side possibility of over an inch, even in isolated area. Maybe, they will be the correct forecast, maybe not. Time will tell…rooting for TornadoLarkins 2-4″ call =-)
Don’t lose hope looking at the radar. The latest nam and GFS show heavy snow over central and east ky. Later this evening. And over night.
I would love it, but HEAVY SNOW?? wouldn’t that mean we would get alot more than 1-3 inches…But I guess it could be HEAVY for about 30 minutes or 1 hour and get 2 in.
The NWS in Charleston, WV has issued a WWA for most of WV.
What about Pulaski County….the Radar looks like everything is going to be rain and I don’t claim to be a weather person, but it looks to me like it’s not changing to snow! I am very sad about this 🙁
So those who know how to read maps………Correct me if I’m wrong, but what we are seeing on radar that doesn’t look promising is not what’s actually going to be precipitating on us, but that it will develop as it moves through? I keep reading radar doesn’t look promising BUT is it that it will actually “develop” as it moves? Or should we snow lovers be worrying because the radar doesn’t look promising? I have no clue!
This is what I am thinking…….definetly nothing looking good on radar for my area!
Like I mentioned earlier, the further north you go the better for snow totals.. I hope Chris is right in saying that a heavy band shows on the models later this afternoon and evening, but It looks like a couple of hours of snow to me and then squalls and light snow showers. The precip shield hasn’t developed in the southern part of the state yet, but I certainly hope that it does!
Radar returns will start to fill in as the moisture wraps in from the north west, look toward ST.Louis radar, it is developing nicely out that way.
The first flakes are coming down in Louisville!
There’s a empty space on the radar just west of the rain? huh? I hope something pops back up.
The cold front is pushing into the Lexington area as of 13:00 and we should now see temps. start to fall around here by 15:00. The snow will be moving in shortly after the evening rush and the roads will get salty. The government is going to make sure they blow as many tax dollars on this small event as they possibly can. They’re going to eat up that $10 MILLION snow/ice budget really fast if possible. It’s almost like they get giddy over wasting money. OK I’m about to go on a rant.. have to stop now.
So anyway.. like some have mentioned, the radar will fill in tonight. The snow that’s coming is largely not even developed yet. Just be patient..
So if I am heading East on the Mt. Parkway around 5pm will things be getting tricky already??
Tell you what, I hope you get into road conditions like we had down here in SE Ky. couple weeks ago, with wrecks on top of wrecks….Then you’ll be screaming for the big bad government to come and scrape you off the side of an 18 wheeler. Cheers!
Nope. If I had it my way, the state would END it’s snow/ice program completely, except for emergencies. It’s wasteful, bad for the environment, and uneccessary. Let people take care of themselves!! Government needs to stop holding our hands!!
Brilliant. So I suppose a 100 car pileup due to letting the roads go would then be cause for you to declare an emergency, correct? Wow.
all snow in glasgow as of 30 minutes ago
Had thunder in Morehead about 30 minutes ago, now wind has picked up, but just very light rain at the moment, feels like temp has dropped, but I don’t know from what to what.