Good Monday, folks. It’s a super-duper tropical atmosphere settling into the region for the next week or so. This will lead to the most humid stretch of the summer, and the increasing potential for heavy rainfall. The heavy rain threat should have a direct tropical connection. That’s worrisome.
The threat for scattered storms returns from the east and southeast this afternoon an evening…
This action will only increase as we roll into Tuesday and Wednesday. The tropical connection to the Gulf is very apparent…
You can see that moisture being funneled to the west of the Appalachian Mountains. Showers and storms in that type a setup will be efficient rain producers. That’s especially true with dewpoints like these…
That’s some nasty humidity and will only aid in the flash flood threat.
Late this week into the weekend, the European Model continues to be adamant on the developing of some kind of tropical system along the Gulf coast. The model then shows a nice dip in the jet stream slowly picking this system up…
The end result on the Euro is to bring that system right across Kentucky…
If that is accurate, then our flash flood threat would be the highest of the summer by the weekend. This could also be a headline making rain event from the southern Appalachians to the Gulf Coast.
A check of the individual GFS Ensemble members show very high rain numbers for much of the region into the southeast…
Have a great Monday and take care.
NWS in Louisville acknowledges any storms that does develop this week will be heavy rain producers. They also seem to be cautious of the models being to overly excited with the heavy rain amounts forecast for our area. Systems like the one in the south this week have a tendency of robbing the moisture from our area. NWS also noted latest model runs showing the ridge a bit more stronger if this occurs rain chances will be somewhat tempered down.
Ya – you never know because I’ve seen that moisture robbing happen before, but I’m trying to remember if I ever saw that with a tropical connection. I know I’ve seen it during the winter when there’s a big storm headed for us but T storms develop down south.
Another somewhat odd thing will be the showers and storms this week will be pinwheeling in from SE to NW.
Man do I appreciate your site Mr. Bailey. Look on other forecast and see 20% chance of rain for days at a time. No mention of the humidity. Luckily I read here and know what is up.