Good Monday and welcome to a new week of weather. We have a lot of changes ahead over the next several days and the highlight will be another strong cold front arriving on the scene Tuesday. This will spawn another big temp drop to go along with some rain ending as snow showers.
Our week begins with clouds on the increase out there today. Temps are going to rebound into the 40s as a few showers develop from southwest to northeast late in the day or into the evening. This action will hold off until after all the MLK Day activities.
Showers and winds will both increase overnight into early Tuesday. This happens as low pressure in the plains works toward the Great Lakes and drags a strong cold front through here. Temps ahead of this boundary will spike well into the 50s with a shot at 60. Readings will then tank as the front moves through with another big drop expected. Temps will hit the 20s just a few hours after the front passes. This contrast of air means locally heavy rain will be possible and you may hear some thunder again. Some snow showers and flurries will be noted behind the front into Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Here’s the GFS…
The GFS Ensembles offer a slightly better shot at some snow showers…
High temps for Wednesday may struggle to get out of the 20s for some areas.
There is another system we will need to keep track of for late Thursday into early Friday. This system will dive into the Ohio Valley from the northwest and will have one heck of a temperature gradient to work with. This may bring a band of light snow in here during this time. The GFS Ensembles like the idea for early Friday…
That arctic air across the northern tier may push that system a little farther south. The models sometimes can be off with the placement of things because they underestimate just how the dense, cold air can push things around a bit.
Regardless… we look to roll into a wetter and milder pattern from the weekend into early next week. It’s not going to take hold as another deep trough likely works into the central and eastern part of the country for the middle and end of next week.
I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Monday and take care.
This week doesn’t sound quite as interesting as last week did! Local weatherman says precip will be long gone before cold air arrives tomorrow here in BG….so he says no changeover! I guess we will see who is right 🙂
With this weather going up and down it is killing me and my 3 kids. We are staying sick with sinuses!!!!!! I wish it would get cold and stay cold for awhile so we could get well!!!!!!!!!!!! I want SNOW!!!! But we need to be well to get out in it! : ) Thanks for all you do Chris!!!!!
Spring is in the air. Thunderstorms possible on Tues….I feel a real cold Ky Derby this year or will it be hot. We have had six inches of rain in Met. Lou. another 1-2 Mon/Tues. and then another 1-2 at the end of the week. The cold in Northern Canada has to let hold sometime or another and with all these systems moving through the OV we are bound to get the cold in here for a couple of them.
Have a good week and THINK SNOW!!!
Bring winter on so when spring gets here it will stay spring.
Are we going to have any winter at all? I WANT SNOW!!!!!!!!! Thanks to all everybody on the blog for all the weather info. This is by far my favorite website. Thanks for all you do for us Chris.
and the rollercoaster ride of 2012 continues !!.. if you wanna know where winter is this week…well go to http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/ and check out all the snow that SEATTLE WA.( of all places) accumulating snow all week long…ROAD TRIP ANYONE??…lol
Just be patient man, we will have out fair share very soon! And Seattle is over rated, look at Spokane WA forecast. lol http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=207&map.y=130&minlon=-121.08&maxlon=-114.85&minlat=45.69&maxlat=49.2&mapwidth=354&site=otx&zmx=1&zmy=1
The ice storm I was discussing last week is still alive and well on the 06Z GFS run. The Friday/Saturday time frame definitely bears watching!
just curious, why do you think its an ice storm? You have been talking about this for awhile.
Click on my name to see the explanation. We’re 4 days out now.. so it’s going to be interesting to watch how this sets up.
thanks, i read your site and it makes sense. Keep us updated!
Wxman love your input.could we see some light accumulation thursday night?
Yeah, its in the 12Z run too. However, the 12Z Canadian and the 12Z Euro are slower bringing the system in Friday night and are much warmer. The snow threat for Thursday/Thursday Night still looks good…mainly across southern Indiana and north of the WKY and BG parkways in KY.
So not for SE KY mj?
So no snow for SE KY thurs?
Probably some flurries…best chances of snow to me look north of a line from Carrolton KY to Pikeville based on the most current data.
Thanks slot mj. Hopefully we can shift that line down a bit. I’m in breathitt co.
figures as much…pretty much same spots as yesterday..
There may not be much snow this winter, but Perfect North was fun yesterday. Low 30’s and mid 20’s- perfect snow temps! Of course, their snow was machine made, but still rocked for the kids!
For folks wanting their kids to experience a decent enough snow for sleigh riding or anything else. PN may be the best and most economical bet this winter for kids. Not being an ad for them, but does not seem a snow beyond a few inches is likely this winter. Fun trip for the kids. Not been to any other in the region, so maybe other similar options.
PN….Do you mean the PNA….Ha Ha…
Come on BubbaG…WInter is far from over and I know you are not giving up midway through.
We will have a few fence riders that will keep our hopes up.
Bubba gave up yrs ago. at least he has been preaching the same stuff for yrs anyways;)
Well, if I am preaching, seems a genuine religion based on 🙂 ……… 🙁
Actual results
Been wanting to take my little girl there (ok, really, I think I’m the big kid of the family). If I can get the weather to cooperate for at least a week, so I can try and make plans…too wet, too warm, too cold, bad travel,…ugh.
Looks like next weekend will be too warm or too wet for their snow machines….
Worthy trip if weather cooperates.
Thanks, Chris. I appreciate the update, and all that you do for us. I really wish that the yo yo stuff would cease though. I am getting dizzy form the radical temp changes we keep getting. 😉
guess I will be getting the rain boots back out again. Oh well.
Have a great Monday, everyone.
Sprinkling rain in Versailles. It seemed awfully warm this morning when I went to get the paper. I’ll hold out hope that eventually the tide will turn and all the cold stuck up north will head south for a bit. Not the kind of winter I’ve been hoping for.
ice storm ? dude you are solo on this one – nobody even makes an attempt to say this is possible. CB does not mention ice nor does Henry at accuweather … Henry goes on to say that a warm up starts next week. better look closer at those models, maybe it’s for Canada
UKFAN…If you know how to read the models WXman makes all the sense in the world. The 6z and the 12z both show precip. moving in Friday evening with surface temps at the freezing mark. This was alos the case last Friday as WXman showed. For it to show up twice within a week he may be on to something. The local and regional mets have all missed the forecast for DEC/JAN. We can all make predictions on what might happen at this point.
thanks mr helper for your input …. i’m just saying that calling for an ice storm is a little extreme ….. people believe in this site and someone may go
into utter chaos thinking an ice storm is coming because all you so called weather experts say it is ….. and yes anyone can predict — hell I predict it is going to be sunny and 70 degrees …
yeah anyone can predict, but not everyone can predict accurately. Wxman never called for an ice storm, he said there is the possibility. And given that the 12z also shows a nice ice event, he is on to something.
Yup and its best to prepare just in case than to not hear a hint of an ice storm then get smacked in the face with one
Typical UK fan I see….Never claimed to be a weather expert. Just like reading the models that are out there and putting in my two cents worth. Although it generally is not correct. People belive in this site due to the great Mr. Baily not what everyone else thinks. So if one person on this blog is able to send another in utter chaos that is there problem. By the way your prediction may just come true. I believe it is suppose to be Sunny and 70 degrees in Florida this weekend. Have a good week and GO CARDS!!!
I posted pictures.. can you see the pictures? 🙂 I don’t just “call” for ice.. I back it up with pics. What else do you want?
I’ve been talking about this for a few days now. Maybe it’s the other guys who are the odd ones out if they can’t see the obvious. 🙂 Besides.. I did not say YES we are going to see ice.. I simply said that it’s on the table as a possibility.
WXman….Let us hope it shows a little of this over the next couple runs. Wouldn’t mind seeing a couple of the other models to jump on board either…..
We have lots of winter left and will be riding BubbaG’s fence on several occasions.
The fence is depressing. Please no link to me 😉
As far as ice/snow, history shows that since the big snow of 98, our big events in central KY have been exclusively ice events, with a little snow thrown on top for cruelty’s sake.
could we see light accumulation thursday night? As bad as I hate to say it, these, light accumulations get me excited lol
I do think its possible, especially over northern parts of the state.
well since its not gonna snow here..lol.. we might as well watch some snow videos from seattle of the heavy,wet, snowfall on youtube…:(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=-8btd34VnyU
And right on cue chris tweets he likes snow for thursday. Also models trending colder for wknd
Temps 50 on Saturday and 60 on Sunday according to NWS in Jackson…doesn’t sound like the arctic air is coming down yet.
Models trending colder now
again that is the NWS 😉
Precipitation with it?
The threat of I’ve for wknd. Snow thur night
I also noticed things trending colder, Weekend looks like it may finally give me more than a trace up here. Also speaking of potential, One of these systems has to eventually hit just right. the scenario at 240hr gfs looks good and with a little adjustment could be old school.
I know, I know, I know……………….
It’s the gfs and a week out, just fun to look at.
I will not believe 60’s in January until I see it.
I’ve seen 70s in January before, so anything can happen. 🙂
Heh, were you in and around E-town on 1/2/06 when we hit the upper 60s and had the tornado hit the north side of E-town? 60s happen in January!
I know this will sound dumb, but I have to ask anyway…what does the RT mean in the Tweets?
Re-tweet which is like when you share someone’s status updates, photos, etc. on facebook.
retweet
Thank you, jonb!
seems like the models are making it look worse for us now than it really is lol, whenever the chance for frozen precip or just cooler air comes into play the models finally pick up on it a few days in advance which is a good surprise but pretty bad for the models who seem to have a hard time with this winter pattern so far. I still think late month and February will be the time for best cold and snow chances around the OV
Overall pattern resembles early March than mid January. More warmer episodes than colder.
The mixed precipitation scheduled later this week doesn’t look that impressive to me. Warmer air will be surging in for next weekend. Anything wintry that falls will be shortlived at best. Impacts don’t look that great to me now.
Last week, I was looking at the Jan 18-20 period for something significant regards wintry precipitation. But each model run to continues to warm up overall. I guess we’ll what the next few runs show as the upper air data is becoming more established.
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Traffic/seattle/I405_85th.htm#cam
traffic cams out of seattle area…where its NOT suppose to snow so much…
TWEET from JoeBastardi: GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter…as neg ao/nao develop…block heading to Greenland in longer term…
yeah,yeah,yeah…..I know..but its hope!!
Are you sure it was the GFS? Today’s 384 hour GFS does not even go into February…maybe he meant the CFS runs?
probably the weeklies…Showing signs of change in 10 days..
Looks to me like the warm is winning out. Keep in mind this is January, so with this much warm weather even being in the discussion I would declare it the winner. The cold should be in here with the warm showing up just on occasion. Instead we are talking about the warm weather not lasting and the cold showing up for a few days. Hopefully winter doesn’t decide to show up in March and April.
I know everyone is in winter mode but any suggestions for lightning safety data to distribute during rain delays this spring. Any specific local incidents or stats would be great. Looking to maybe make a 3 fold brochure to distribute via little league and khsaa.