Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for making us your stop for online weather. We have a rather active period ahead of us for the next several days and the action get’s started out there today. Thunderstorms, gusty winds and crashing temps combine to highlight a wild weather day.
A strong cold front enters the picture later this afternoon into the evening hours. Temps ahead of this front will warm toward the low 60s as winds crank up. Gusts may hit 35mph at times. Temps behind the front will take a dive and wind up in the upper 20s and low 30s by midnight.
That’s the mark of a rather potent cold front and I fully expect this front to spawn scattered thunderstorms across the region. There is enough energy available for some of these storms to become strong and that’s something for us to watch out for. You can track all the action by clicking on the tabs at the top of the page. Radars, current conditions and weather cams will help keep you ahead of any storms going up.
Some flurries or snow showers will be possible overnight into early Wednesday. This isn’t a big deal, but goes to show you how strong this front really is.
We have two more systems to track for the end of the week. One comes rolling into town from the west later Thursday and may bring a swath of light snow with it. How far south can this action get? Odds favor the northern half of the state being in the prime spot for some accumulating snow. That may creep a little farther south with time.
The GFS really drives some cold air in behind this system by Thursday evening…
That is a heck of a temperature gradient taking shape from north to south across the country. This setup is also important for the next system that quickly rolls in on Friday into early Saturday. Many of the models suggest the battleground between rain and snow will set up across the Ohio Valley and may include our region. Here is the GFS again…
The models are now getting a better understanding of just how much low level arctic air there is to our north. This will really have to be watched as we finish the week and head into the weekend.
That’s a nice way to run this massive warm up everybody’s out there hyping. 😉 I do expect things to mild up late weekend into early next week… but the models have been tempering things as we get closer. Regardless… things change up by the middle and end of next week as another deep trough swings our way.
I will have updates as needed and send out thoughts via twitter. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Anyone else worried about an ice storm possibility in February? ,Anne even March…just seems like a type of year we could see that.
One big lightning show here just outside of Nicholasville. Lots of close hits. No warning or anything but the lightning is really intense and its pouring right now at 4:55…
Just had one heck of a thunderstorm roll through SE Fayette. Probably same one that went through your area Nate.
Two lines of storms to watch for here Metro Lou. First one not as as potent as the one out in Missouri. Squall line will be impacting most of the state later this afternoon. If that holds together and picks up steam we could be in for some quick hitting severe weather. Looks like tornado just south of St. Louis….WOW this is not your typical January weather. Becareful out there later…..
THINKS SNOW!
Wow, turned on the local news this morning to see tornado warnings for northern Knox and northern Daviees county Indiana, which is just right up the road from here. Crazy January weather!
ugggg………..thunderstorms?!?! Not in January!!! Please wait til Spring!
Didnt need an alarm clock this morn. Storms woke me up before it could go off. Is it really January?
It’s funny, because yesterday was MLK day and I had the day off, so I didn’t look at ANY weather data. But I was out last night walking the dogs before bed and I thought to myself “this system is VERY dynamic. I wonder if there’ll be tornadoes?” You could just hear the wind mixing down from the upper levels. The trees would be bent over 100 yards away, but where I was standing it was silent. Then suddenly I’d get blasted with wind. Also, the wind speed did not slow down after sunset. Clearly, this is a dynamic system with some punch.
Then I woke up this morning and the NWS has tornado warnings posted across the river from Louisville. Wow. I hope nobody gets hurt.
Check out that radar! North and west of ky getting pounded, and it’s headed this way. Spring time in Jan. Would rather have an old school snow storm though.
6z NAM has Thurs. snow way north of river.
This winter is not the usual central KY snow “curse”. The “love” is shared with a large chunk of the country. Anything can happen, but seems that based on every big winter event since 98 being mainly ice, not so sure I would want a “big” event. I am learning to like the ankle biters, since pretty and a lot less harm than ice.
That line back in MO looks SCARY!
Last 2 runs of the GFS keeps it pretty toasty around here. Running out of patience. If some of the cold air dosen’t empty out of Canada soon, it will do so when we are ready for warm weather come late March/April.
As the GFS has been showing it since Friday, you’d get an ice storm from I-64 northward to Cincinnati later this week.
But even with 3 days to go…the GFS could still alter its temp. profiles as far as how far north or south that 2M line sets up. So the only point I was trying to make on the blog is that this IS a possibility, it IS on the table as something that should at least be considered, and yet no one is talking about it. I think that is fairly poor forecasting from the NWS as well as the TV outlets personally. Some counties in Kentucky could have devastating effects from this if the GFS turns out to be correct…and with 72 hours to go nobody is even mentioning it? Seriously? That’s sort of pathetic. Instead, the published forecasts are indicating shorts and t-shirt weather. Sad indeed…
I do not see the “i” word in CB’s outlook either.
WXman, chris DID mention that there was something to watch for with the Friday/Saturday system. He mentioned the battleground being right over the Ohio valley, and said it needed to be watched. I kind of took it with the maps he showed that he was alluding to that possibility. (But that could be because I read what your thoughts were on it, and had that on my mind.)
Um, I mentioned the possibility of winter weather in the discussion yesterday. Based on the data yesterday, it had a low risk of occurring as the GFS was the only model that was cold. The typically superior Canadian and Euro were all warm with the system…as they continue to be.
Right, but two points:
A) The general public only sees the forecast product, not the AFD. So everybody I’ve talked to has been expecting “60s” this weekend based on what they’ve seen on TV/media.
B) The Euro continues to be the “magic” model. It is the only one that somehow gets awesome “verification scores”, yet in real life it sucks and nothing it predicts hardly ever comes to fruition. I have yet to determine why that is…so for now I’m chalking it up to magic or witchcraft. I wouldn’t trust it any farther than I could throw the computer monitor it’s displayed on.
Don’t blame the messenger…..Wx man is on to something I’m afraid, seeing as how the JKL is speaking of freezing drizzle from Thursday evening into Friday. Thanks for the heads up and it seems that more and more are validating your thoughts as well 🙂
Woke up to some thunder and lightning this orning along with a short heavy downpour and very gusty winds. Right now, its not doing anything. Just cloudy and very windy.
Helcity values and dewpoint increasing across west KY ahead of squall line. Mixed layer CAPE also starting to increase as well further west. This leads to me to think the threat is not over.
The fact that warnings are blowing up all over that squall line, including a Tornado Warning very close to Loserville, indicate that the threat is far from over. Where the hell is SPC’s watch box? OH.. that’s right.. they don’t issue things like that anymore. LOL.
Heck, we’re not even in the slight risk zone.
Madison, IN officials confirming a mile-wide path of damage…
This is along the OH river. Squall line should be tearing up KY counties in the next hour…
well since our winter weather is BORING at the moment…how about the snow falling in the PAC. WEST…the entire state of Washington, and Oregon is under either Winter storm Warnings or advisories…snow lovers out there have hit the snow lottery!
10:57 TORNADO WARNING FOR LOUISVILLE, NEW ALBANY, CLARKSVILLE
Wow, is this really January?!?! It seems this year may take some cues from last as far as wild weather is concerned. Can these hold together in EKY because I’m seeing the sun now. I wonder if this will fuel the storms as well…..any thoughts?
i think the i70 area of ohio is going to get a decent snow this friday, and from the gfs runs i have seen if you look closely lexington is spared with mainly rain. The threat zone for ice would be say bardstown to sadieville and points north.
Tornado outbreak apparently underway in Indiana and north Central Ky. Where were the Watches? Reports of damage in Louisville, Clarksville and Madison IN.