Good Wednesday everyone. We have a much colder day in store for the bluegrass state and this comes after a busy Tuesday that featured a ton of severe weather. Nothing like spring in January. 🙂 Will it continue or is the cold air to the north starting to flex some muscle?
There has been a ton of talk in the weather world about a massive warmup that would dwarf the mild weather we’ve seen this winter. This was originally supposed to engulf the region this week… then this weekend… then the models pushed it back into next week. And now? The models aren’t really that impressed and, if anything, are going the other way. Could this be a sign of the bitterly cold air across Canada and the northern tier of the country becoming more of a bully? I guess we will find out soon enough.
Our short term forecast starts out with a few light snow showers or flurries across parts of eastern Kentucky early today. These will get on out of town later today as the entire region sees a partly sunny sky. Highs will run in the 30-35 degree range for many areas.
A system will then dive into our region late Thursday into Thursday night. Winds are going to really gust up ahead of this weak front and we should see a nice spike in temps. Seeing this spike likely means we are dealing with a robust little front that may be an overachiever in terms of the swath of light snow it can produce. It’s actually showing up much more pronounced on the latest GFS…
Much of the precipitation will fall behind whatever boundary there is and that means it’s mainly light snow. It may start out as a touch of light rain for some before a quick change to light snow. This may have enough juice to drop a light accumulation of snow into Thursday evening as temps drop into the 20s. Let’s keep an eye on this.
Something else to keep an eye on will be the system moving in late Friday into Saturday. Low level arctic cold air is firmly entrenched across areas to our north and we get a touch of that to bleed in behind the Thursday system. This stuff is usually hard to dislodge and you end up getting warmer air forced on top of the cold layer. The storm moving in to start the weekend will draw up a mild tongue of air at the surface… but this can only get so far north. Look at the temps from the GFS and you will see what I’m talking about…
You can see how the milder air never really reaches the Ohio River before the colder air collapses back in behind the departing low.
Here’s the same GFS run with precipitation type…
It puts theat mix line a little too close for comfort and is something for us to watch for.
We will mild it up for a few days late weekend into Monday, but the overall look of the pattern next week is one that will bring some wintry shots out way. A couple of big storms are likely to be roaming about the country during this time.
I will have another update later today. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
Thanks Chris for all your updates you are the best. One thing I wanna know about is the 24th and what everyone is saying about another round of severe weather ahead of us. Let me know your thoughs on it. I just hope we get a snowstorm around here cause i’m startin to miss winter. I can wait for spring just give me a good dose of snow!!! Lookin forward to hearin your thoughts on the weather and keep up the great work. Prayers go out to the people in the path of the tornadoes yesterday, I hope everyone is safe.
I would love to believe that it wont warm way up but the track record of this Winter says that it will; can you go into more detail as to why you think that it wont?
The 06Z run of the GFS indicates that the West will again be the benefactor of continued Winter; wouldnt the nao, ao going negative indicate that the East would be cold?
Thank you Chris for making this my one stop weather info every morning. I would LOVE to see that first big snow down here in Corbin. Do you see any signs of that anytime soon????? I have a 3 year old that would love to build a snowman!!!
Really want to see a big snow here in Jackson County too. Thanks for all the updates.
Thanks Chris for the update! What a wild Tuesday it was here in the area. I am by no means a meteorologist but when I woke up yesterday and took a look a the weather map my first indication was wow look at the squall line in Mo. and I told my wife to be careful when these storms approach as there will be possibilities for high winds and even tornados. I really would like to know how the SPC and the NWS did not see this coming. We had four tonandos touch down within 15 miles of my house. THEY REALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE…..Thank God no one was injured!
Hopefully the rest of the winter is cold and snowy!
THINK SNOW!
Love, love, love the new format. Love the links on the top. Just love it all the way around. I thought it was wonderful when you began to send the daily emails but this service has really become very top of the line. This site has become for me at the least a morning visit and a go-to site for when I am planning outside activities. In the winter, because I am a part-time teacher, the snow reports are important. In the summer, because I am a wedding coordinator, radars and forecasts are very important when working with outdoor events. Even if I retire, I know that I will be watching the weather through this site.
YAY! Somebody is finally mentioning the possibility of ice other than me. That makes me feel good. I’m not crazy afterall! 🙂
Honestly though, I’d rather have 26″ of snow and -24°F temps. to go with it than an all-out ice storm. Ice is just too devestating for infrastructure.
Did CB? If there is, seems more an Ohio river area and perhaps north Kentucky, but thankfully seems low risk ATM.
As far as cold air settling in, CB appears to be the lone wolf on this, so will be interesting if pans out. Even in my most cynical views, I would not have expected this winter to be so wimpy so far and for CB not to mention big snow for this long. Big difference between “wintry” and big snow. It is ironic that for winter, we have to use the term “wintry”. It is already winter, but on average, behaving more like mid/late fall or early spring.
Well, as of last night the GFS and Euro were both keeping the freezing line near cincy. So anyone who’s still forecasting warm weather this weekend needs to drink some coffee.
Looks like the ice would set up just to our north. OH river area, as it stands right now. I think it still bears watching. A cold rain would be better than ice.
wilmington saying snow sleet and freezing rain possible here in dayton
Oh please, no ice! 🙁 🙁
Oh No! We are all going to go into utter chaos!!!! What shall we do!!!
WXman…I have been on board with you since last Friday…also BubbaG is correct by stating that this would be an Ohio River north evern which is even better because the cold air generally wns out in these situations and the FENCE, so to say, could very easily fall futher south. If that happens the Ohio river would be in on some snow.
It usually is chaos if we get ice. Not sure anyone hopes for it, thats for sure.
Well considering there is no snowpack in Cincy, I would say the models will trend warmer and further north with the frz rain and mix Dayton points north. Dayton and Columbus should have some snow on the ground after the thursday clipper which would make frz rain likely given lower surface temps.
Thanks, Chris. Appreciate the update, as usual. I hope we do see cold weather for a little bit. Do I want ice? Shoot, NO, but I do want the colder temps. Kudos to your twitter updates yesterday during the storminess. I kept my daughter up to date whiel she was visiting a school. (She has to turn you off when she goes into schools.)
Was able to give her a heads up on stuff heading her way. thanks again, Chris. But, please, no ice.
No doubt the Big ole Alaska vortex has ruined the heart of winter..We may end up with a decent Feb as some are saying the ensemble means of both models are finally showing the vortex weakening around day10 and a ridge develops out west in the Eastern Pacific..Hopefully this will lead to a -NAO, -AO, and +PNA for a little while..Also showing warm anomalies over Eastern Canada which if i understand should push cold air south..But its the Models so it may change tomorrow…
getting some very light occasional snow/flurries from time to time here along the border.
12Z GFS hot off the press.. sticking to it’s guns. Sets the freezing line at the surface up near or just slightly north of I-64 on Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the upper levels are above freezing all the way into IN and OH. If I lived along the OH River, I’d start preparing for a possible icing event this weekend.
Ironically (or not so much), the NAM disagrees and keeps us warmer. We’re coming down to 48 hours to go, and the models still can’t agree on this.
What are your thoughts for areas north of I-64 in southern Indiana? Ice potential, snow, or rain?
With none of the models agreeing it’s a tough call. I will say though that sleet, ice, and mixed precip. is all a possibility there.
Do you think it will be all rain for the Bowling Green area?
baaaahaaaaaa ……. look past Saturday and the warm weather returns …. I am betting in SE KY on Tues it hits mid 60’s …. oh yea, it may be raining but 65 degrees in January is awesome!!! I look for February to be much of same ….. warm weather, then cold, then warm again. Look out – spring is getting closer and closer
Just saw a louisville Met say a high of 40 this coming tuesday, wlex said a high of around 60? Sounds like Chris might be on to something with this questionable big warmup for next week??
I wish someone would buy Jack frost, the snow-miser, the abondable snowman, Ice man, whoverever else ..so we can get some snow that will fall for days on end and we can measure it with a yardstick, and the temps. stay in the upper teens for highs…ahhh.. Jim cantore is killing me with those live shots out of the Pac. NW. where snow has been falling for Days and some area’s have been measuring it in feet …in the lower elevations…
evidently you don’t work for a living ….. try driving 50 miles one way to work at 5am in snow, ice and you probably wouldn’t be talking idiot stuff like wishing for snow measured with a yardstick ….
someone is testy…my,my,my…and by the way I drove 45 miles ONE WAY to work for yrs…but if your a snow lover, you are..and and if your not , then your not…
oh and by the way…yes I still WORK for a living…try being a 24/7 Foster parent, retired stay home dad for 5 children, laundry,cook,clean…uhh so dont talk to me about working for a living OK… 🙂
blizzardTim get a job….LOL….Sounds like a wish for a ’78 blizzard. 15 inches of snow followed by cold and occasional snow for weeks to come. We were out of school for a couple of weeks I do believe. February could bring us a couple of shots at a decent snowfall or will it be a plain cold rain. Lets hope for the cold to come in a last for a few weeks.
I think that IF we were to get a big snow this winter, it will not show itself until we see the whites of its snow eyes 😉
wow…talk about soooo close to a good snowstorm next week…
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120118%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_183_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=183&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F18%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=64&nextImage=yes
Looks like we still get in on a little action. Would love to see that low run up the West side of Apps. with the cold in place all of Ky would get in on the action with nice snowfall. All the pieces will come together for one, of these many, lows that will be rolling through our region over the next few weeks.
CB’s latest tweet was nice to read….The cold air should win out. If we can get some snow pack to our north we could be in for some substainable cold. THINK SNOW….
yeah, I agree !! his tweet sounded somewhat promising…signs of NAO and AO going neg..soon..so at this point anythings better than nothing…
Thursday system may deliver some light snow. Any thoughts anyone?
My thoughts are that you are one of the biggest flip flip-flopper’s I have ever seen. One hour you see no snow until February next your saying we may get snow Thursday? I’m not trying to be a jerk but stick to your thoughts on what you think it will do and don’t change them just because someone else says otherwise.
Thanks and sorry for upsetting so many people. I’ll keep from posting my thoughts on weather because I’ll be the first to tell u I’m not even close to the standards of mets like CB.
I never said stop posting your thoughts, just don’t flip flop around so much, you haven’t upset me and I’m sure you haven’t upset anyone else. All I’m trying to say is stick to YOUR thoughts and don’t let anyone else’s thoughts change yours. Don’t stop posting just because I offended you and I’m sorry that I did.
Any ice/mixed precipitation would be short-lived. The air at the surface would have to be pretty cold, like at least 5 degrees below freezing before anything called significant would develop. I don’t think we’ll see those readings. As any rain falls, surface temps will respond and actually warm thereby lessening any serious impacts on area roadways with minor impacts to trees/power lines IF the GFS should verify. Typically, the GFS warms up in situations like this. In addition, it looks light according to the models.
I saw something like this over a week away too, possible ice setup with arctic air to the north, and warmer air to the south. See my post ‘Your Monday’ sometime last week. I’m not as optimistic about the overall setup now.
Any odds on snow in Eastern KY tomorrow night?
I would like to know this as well…
Hi, to all back home in Kentucky! I heard about the severe weather in Louisville and surrounding areas, I am also praying for those that were affected. I am a snow addict and proud of it. Kentucky’s weather wasn’t exciting enough for me, (kidding), so I recently moved up to The Great White North of Alaska. The weather up here has also been abnormal this winter too. Yes, there is some snow on the ground, but the temperatures are what have all the long time Northerners talking. They are apparently record breaking low right now for the time of year. It’s not any colder than it was in Louisville, but for SE Alaska, it is a terribly cold winter. Eight feet of ice in Nome, 13 ft. of snow in Cordova, hurricane strength storms on the Western coast, I just wanted to let you guys know that the weather is CRAZY all over the place right now! I am following the weather here, but still have to check out Chris’s blog too! I’m sending my fellow snow lovers thoughts of cold and blizzards your way! Hah!
I would love to see one big snow this winter! My nephews love to play in the snow! I love your weather page!