Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, all. A hard freeze is on tap tonight, but the focus of the forecast continues to be on the end of next week into the following weekend. This is when a taste of winter tries to develop across our part of the world.

A potent plains storm system will head toward the Great Lakes by Friday. That will drag a cold front into the state with the possibility of another system developing along the boundary as it passes to our east. The GFS for Friday through Sunday…

That’s a huge drop in temperatures from near 70 ahead of the front, to the 30s for highs behind it. If that second system develops like the GFS suggests, it could bring some winter weather to the Ohio Valley into the Appalachian Mountains.

This is a snapshot of the snow from that one particular model run from today…

Do NOT get carried away with any of that, I assure you it will change a million times in the coming days. I am ONLY showing it to illustrate the potential for the first taste of winter weather.

The European Model is now slowing this system down and is trending closer to what the GFS has been hinting at…

All I can say is next weekend turns cold and has the potential to produce a taste of winter weather across Kentucky or very near us.

The earlier run of the GFS showed a chill for Thanksgiving and Black Friday…

It ended the Thanksgiving holiday weekend with this setup…

Again, all the models change from run to run, but we are seeing more of them seeing the potential we have been talking about on the blog for almost a month now. Week 2 of November was the transition week, with weeks 3 and 4 giving us some winter threats.

I keep watching the individual members of the GFS ensembles as they start picking up on the winter potential over the next few weeks. Just about each member on the latest run has something…

I will have the full update (not that this wimpy) later tonight. Enjoy your evening and take care.