Good Saturday to one and all. We are dealing with a nice little blast of cold air. This isn’t a big deal, but it’s the coldest we’ve had so far this warm fall. Freezing temperatures will effectively end any growing season that was left. The overall setup grows more active in the week ahead, with winter weather showing up across the country.

The weekend forecast remains the same with temps dropping into the 20s into Sunday morning. This afternoon and Sunday afternoon look really good with a seasonal chill in the air.

Low pressure will develop to our south on Monday and could throw some showers into southeastern Kentucky. Given the current forest fire situation, let’s hope the simulated radar from the NAM is correct…

nam

The next system zips by late Tuesday into Wednesday with only a small shower chance. Winds will then get really gusty ahead of the next system arriving later Friday into Saturday. How potent this storm gets depends on what model you look at. The GFS closes off a powerful upper low on top of our region by next weekend…

gfs

Here’s the surface map for that setup…

gfs-4

Upper lows like that can produce winter weather and that’s exactly what that model shows across the Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee Valley.

The European Model has been uncharacteristically poor and jumpy with systems over the past few months. It is jumping around and the current run doesn’t agree with what the GFS is selling…

euro-3

That turns it cold with a much more progressive system moving through. You will also notice a tropical system coming out of the Caribbean toward the Bahamas. I talked about that potential a day or two ago. If it’s real.. It may very well alter the overall setup over the next few weeks and could blow my thoughts out of the water.

I’ll update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.