Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another chilly day in the bluegrass state, but my focus continues to be on heavy rain rolling our way by Monday. The pattern looks busy, and increasingly colder.
The system moving in on Monday will bring heavy rain from west to east during the day into early Tuesday. My thoughts have not changed on this at all. Central and western Kentucky can pick up 1″-2.5″ of rain, with an inch or under in the east.
The next system developing along that front from Tuesday night into Wednesday is being handled differently by each model.
The European Model has the heaviest rain with this across the central and east…
Rain totals for both systems on the Euro…
The Canadian Model on has a similar look with the second system…
The GFS is much more progressive, but that’s a well known bias of the model…
Adjust that westward and you have a similar look with every piece of data.
A few snowflakes may show up on the backside of that system as colder air crashes in here from the northwest. As we get closer to the first few days of December, the models are indeed growing colder and colder…
That’s the setup from Thursday-Saturday with the seasonally cold air taking full control of the pattern. That’s a setup that can throw some snow showers and flurries our way, especially as winds become northwesterly.
What about the system across the southwest? The models are now leaving that system cutoff from the main flow. If that’s the case, it opens the door for clippers to dive in from the northwest. The European has one late next weekend…
Have a great evening and take care.
Was hoping we could get that southern system to interact with the cold air late next weekend. I’ll take a clipper to make up for it though as long as we can put a little snow on the ground!
Thanks for the Saturday update CB.
Yeah, it is not quite coming together as quick as most of us winter weather enthusiasts would like but I am overly excited for the pattern change that will likely kick the drought rather fast.
I am hoping that those 3 + inches do fall in the TN valley and Deep South as those areas are nearly crippled in drought at this point, but one can’t rule significant flooding possible if this rain becomes too excessive as the ground is dry plus the vegetation does not soak up much of the moisture after the growing season ends!
Would be interesting if we get big ice rather than big snow this winter. CB mentioned it and if we get the cold spikes like he thinks, it would be very possible.
Would be bad as well.