Good evening everyone. Here’s hoping you are enjoying a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends. The weather today has been perfect and that continues into Black Friday. Beyond that… a wintry pattern comes calling.

The forecast models continue to be split into the same two camps as what I was talking about in the last update. The American run models of the NAM and GFS are both more northern stream dominated and progressive with the system moving in late this weekend and early next week. These models show a quick hitting round of rain Saturday evening and night with some wraparound snow showers and flurries Sunday into early Monday.

The foreign models put much more emphasis on the southern stream and have a big cutoff low just to our south that meanders through into the middle of next week. That setup brings a much better shot at heavier precipitation with rain and snow.

To be honest… I think both of those camps are wrong and the end result should be something in between. The GFS Ensembles are showing something awfully close to my ideas with a cutoff low across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys…



Here’s how that setup plays out…



I’m not going to sit here and tell you I know how this thing will play out exactly. I can tell you that rain is likely late Saturday into Saturday night with a switch to snow at some point Sunday into Monday. How much rain or how much snow remains to be seen as there are way to many questions yet to be answered.

The longer range pattern is a cold one and there will be another system working in by the end of next week. That one is already getting my attention.

A full update comes your way late tonight. Have a great rest of your Thanksgiving and take care.