Good afternoon, gang. Blue skies are taking over out there this afternoon after a wild past 24 hours. Record high temps, winds gusting better than 40mph, thunderstorms and soaking rains combined to steal the weather show. Now comes some winter weather, with a big surge waiting in the wings.
We get another system to move in here late Wednesday with gusty showers. Much colder air comes in behind this with northwesterly winds producing snow showers and flurries later Thursday into Friday…
Some light accumulations are a good bet across the central and east Thursday night. Some local 1″ amounts will be possible in the east, especially the higher elevations.
The New Year’s Weekend system then rolls in here with a rain/snow mix for those holiday parties. Another system should follow that up by Monday. Here’s the GFS…
The Canadian Model is much stronger with the second system…
Major blocking develops next week and that means… LOOK OUT BELOW. Watch how that forces a DEEP trough to engulf the country…
This is coast to coast arctic air settling in…
Can we get some snow systems to accompany the cold? Yes. The ridge in the western Atlantic is going to help us out by fighting back against the cold. That would force some systems to impact out region beginning next week…
I will have another update later this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.
Well here we go showing a snow storm over ky this far out. We have now guaranteed rain with that one.
be positive my friend!!
Rodger’s thoughts too! Might as well be showing that Low pressure going thru Minnesota LOL. Rodger in Dodger!
Thanks for the update chris. Keeping a eye out for weather in next couple weeks.
Ya we need a low to start out in south America then a week later it might track in Tennessee. But still d up in Minnesota.
We had three of those in less than a year over the last two winters. The overall set-up though does not appear similar this winter. CB should IMO stay the course with his winter outlook. The last two were pretty darn good.
We should get sustained cold a few times, but most moisture will probably be gone before the cold sets in. Then we would be at the mercy of clippers, but appears a lot of the lake areas that feed clippers are mainly frozen over.
I bet it turns out rain then dry cold for two days. Friday is a non event northwest flows have been pathetic the last few years.
Doesn’t look like anything good in the next few weeks.
Why is there always a forecast of snow and then 3ish days later it’s changed to rain/no precipitation?
Looks like Chris can’t win with this crowd. Here are the scenarios:
1. Post up a picture of ensembles showing arctic conditions. Response: Bah humbug! It will be cold and dry, who cares. May as well be Florida-esque temperatures if we can’t have the white stuff.
2. Favorable pattern developing with negative AO, NAO. Response: Pattern Shmattern, no storms as far as the model eyes can see.
3. Colossal snowstorm dumping 30+ inches in eastern KY. Response: It’s that 18z GFS fantasy storm again. Alternate response: It’s 7 days out. The models should have the storm over Puerto Rico, then with the NW trend we will have a shot. Congrats, Montana and the Dakotas, you win again.
4. Warm temperatures in the forecast. Response: Of course it’s warm. Its KY. The only snow we get is the dreaded backside flurries. Call me when it’s severe weather season.
Nailed it. Winter is just starting. I think there will be some surprised peeps out there come mid Feb.
We love Mr Bailey. Nobody’s upset with him. Long range winter models are horrible. That’s all. Rodger in Dodger
THIS!
Nobody is personally blaming Chris.
Nobody Trust the models especially the Canadian.
Negative Nancies all over this site. Why not be positive and see if Mother Nature doesn’t play along. Thanks for the update CB.
It is difficult to trust any model showing a snow storm in our area more than 72 hours ahead. The temperatures seem to trend upward bringing us rain instead of snow. Hopefully a big snow storm will hit the Ohio Valley very soon
I would like to see graphics showing the blocking from Jan/Feb 2015 & 2016 as compared to the model runs for 2017. Would be a great visual.