Good Thursday everyone. A strong system across the gulf is going to roll our way later today and bring a ton of rain with it. This will cause heavy rain and thunderstorms to break out for many areas into tonight, leading to the potential for flooding. A FLOOD WATCH is out for much of central and eastern Kentucky into early Friday.
The pipeline of moisture is going to deliver a 1″-3″ rainfall for many areas during this time. The GFS shows a wide area getting in on the act…
The NAM is similar but a little more concentrated with the axis of heavy rain…
Either way… the threat for flooding is on the increase this afternoon into tonight across many areas. We will also have to keep an eye on the river levels as many of them are already running on the high side.
Don’t forget to track the heavy rain by clicking on the radar, currents and we cam links at the top of the page.
The rain will slowly work out of here on Friday as colder air sweeps in from the northwest. This air isn’t all that cold, but may produce a touch of a mix or melting snow before things shut off. The NAM shows the possibility…
Colder air then bleeds in over the coming weekend. We have one system working across the Ohio Valley on Saturday that should be able to generate a light mix fo rain and snow as temps should run 35-40 for most. A strong front arrives early Sunday and will have a bigger push of cold air behind it. Temps shouldn’t rise much on Sunday from the upper 20s and low 30s we wake up with. I do expect some snow showers and flurries around along and behind this front.
Let’s keep our eye on the short-term and the possibility of high water. This system has a lot of moisture with it and I’m concerned we may be in the thick of a high water event tonight and early Friday. I will have updates as needed and be using twitter for quick updates.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
Flood watch now in effect for all of eastern and south eastern KY.
Food For Thought:
For Boyle County average annual snowfall is 11.6″ using years 70-00.
1.6 of that is Nov/Dec. This season actual 0-trace.
3.6 of that is Jan. This season 1-1.4.
So it looks by the end of month we will be about 3.8″ of snow below average.
February and March combined is 6″. I think that is still easily possible but am more inclined to expect 4″ during that period.
That would give us about 5.4″ for the season or about half our “normal” season snowfall.
No comments or even ‘hints’ in Chris’ forecast today of upcoming snow 🙁 Looks like we may all be right……..the winter is what it is………….spring….haha!
I cannot wait until next Tuesday! Oh boy, more rain. This winter cannot end soon enough.
It’s going to take a big explosion on the radar to give us 1 to 3 inches of rain
Some snow would be really nice Chris Bailey. We need at least 5 more snow days…
lol….yeah my kids would agree, last Dec. here in knox co. my kids went to school only 3 days!! due to snow. this yr. they have only missed 3 or 4 days and 2 of them was for flooding…lol..
Thanks, Chris. Glad to know you are watching out for us, even when you are on the road. Looks like this winter is going to go down as one of the least snowiest for us. 🙁 Just don’t want spring too soon. Way too early. Be careful today everyone.
wow just think how much snow we could have got today! so sad : ( hope we get atleast one snow before spring arrives (on the calendar) that is! lol it has been spring all winter!
There were robins all over my yard yesterday and they say they come back in the beginning of spring…..this doesn’t bode well for snow lovers. I, myself, am a avid snow lover and this year I just want to see Spring and get into softball season. My snow spirit is crushed for the first time ever!
I saw robins for the first time yesterday, too. Hmmm.
Robins do not migrate during winter months like some other birds do, I’ve seen large groups of robins even during our coldest winters.
Everyone give one word for this winter…here’s mine:
DISSAPOINTING
WAKE-UP!!!!
Chris, thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to keep us updated. Everyone stay safe today and have a good one.
I like how people are saying ” this winter can’t end soon enough”. How exactly will we know winter ended? Lol.
wow..will we hit 70*!! today here in KNOX CO. the mesonet is showing 65* ATM.. go 70!! go70*!!! go go go…lol..if its not gonna snow, Might as well root for spring…cloudy/65 sure beats rain and 35… 🙂
another HUGE TEMP. gradient across the state today…68*!! in Letcher co. while its 39* in covington…
Time for me to confess that this year’s total lack of snow is my fault. After years of being stuck on our hill due to snow drifts, this past November my hubby and I putt up about $700 worth of snow fencing to keep our driveway clear. Well…we are still waiting to see if it will work!! So we overprepared and Mother Nature said, “No snow for you!”
Yeah, we re-graveled our farm road last fall so we wouldn’t get stuck like last winter. We don’t know if it was money well-spent either!
somewhere in the back of my mind, I cant help but to wonder. Does this pattern do a 180* flip !! at some point before May?!?! if it does, I got a feeling someone will get a huge snowstorm! so much warmth+COLD= WINTERY WEATHER!…so there is your math lesson for the day…LOL…. 🙂
I just keep remembering the winters of 78′ & 93′ Both winters consist of unusually warm weather and lack of snow. The night before the blizzard hit 34 years ago today, we (Hamilton, Ohio) had severe thunderstorms. It was in the 60’s still at 8 at night. Sound familiar? The weather during the winter of 93′ it stayed warm most of the winter and if memory recalls, very little if any snow fell. Then came MARCH! Things changed so fast and the National Weather Services, in both cases 78′ & 93′, were caught completely off guard. Why do people think that it can not happen again? WHERE IS EVERYONE’S FAITH? Be shocking to have another night of Tornado’s just to wake up with a highly unexpected BLIZZARD WARNING posted. It happened twice, it can happen again. I have the faith…help me people.
You’re exactly right, and you can’t forget ’98. A complete snowless winter until Feb 3 or 4th (I think). Nothing was predicted at all until the moment it started snowing (then they said a dusting) which quickly changed into 20 inches of snow in Lex and blowing snow at that! I seem to recall even after the main storm snowfall fell, it kept snowing lightly for 3 days constantly. I know there had to be LOTS of wind with that storm because it drifted over my back yard fence and OVER the directv dish mounted on the fence. I can’t BELIEVE I didn’t take pictures! I regret that to this day 🙁
I was about nine years old and living in east TN during the Blizzard of 93 (lived in Morristown, we lived not far from where the future NWS office and radar would be built). I’ll never forget being virtually unable to see the trees in our backyard from the ‘whiteout’. One of our neighbors had a few inches of snow inside their garage from a tiny gap under the door! Unbelievable even central Alabama (including Birmingham had up to 15 inches in the middle of March.
I think you have the wrong year. The winter of 78 is one of the worst winters ever (along with 77). There was a big blizzard in early Jan that started as rain but that wasn’t the only event, nor was it constantly warm, actually it was a very cold winter. Definitely think this Winter is a lot like 93 and 98. We are directly in the path of the storms. All it takes is for one pocket of cold air to meet one of them to make a memorable storm.
The weather is blah. The site is blah. Can someone tell us what the forecast is looking like 7 to 10 days out? Even if it looks like rain…lie to us and at least give us some hope…
ok, here goes.
10 days from now the GFS predicts 24 inches of snow on the west side of the Appalachians, the NAM is on board and the Europeon is even more generous with 36 on the west side and 48 on the east. This will be followed by another artic blast and 8-10 more inches in the 14 day outlook.
I hope that helped!
YES!!! Finally!!! Some hope…Isn’t it great to get a laugh…as miserable as the weather has been we need something. I’m just about ready to flip to the dark side and say bring on the sunshine and 70’s…
glad I could help and me too about the darkside
So far this winter:
December: zzzzzzzz
January : zzzzzzzz
February : ???
March : ???
We have 60+ days to hit the 25-30″ prediction of snowfall this winter.
What are the Vegas odds we hit this number? Everyone feel free to respond. =-)
March :
Perhaps the odds are as much as *this* happening in Vegas 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqb1lYeMjc8
nice, Mark! haha
Not a chance.
NAM is showing even more precip. behind the cold 24hrs out….The GFS shows a little more than when CB posted this morning…
The NWS in Paducah has found a second tornado from the Jan 22/23 storms.
Add this to the Jan 17 twisters and the count keeps growing………and growing. At least KY has had no tornado fatalities, but unfortunately this wasn’t the case in Alabama which was one of the last places this needed to happen after their turbulent spring of 2011.
1987 monster ?? well I can see this happening for someone in the state mid FEB and March.
I posted a pick in the reader photo’s folder for you snow lovers from feb 98. There are flowers blooming along with 20inches of snow in my Frankfort front yard. This shows it ain’t over till it’s over??
I guess my Photo didn’t make the cut, moderation Gods??
Could use some help interpreting the 18z NAM…seems to color in some flizzard action in Louisville at 15 hours (I’m sure it’s unlikely here)…then again at 42 hours (51 hours – 12z GFS)…looks pretty like though. Just lookin’ at prospects of snow flying through the air at this point…
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-v38lbPNZs&w=420&h=315%5D
Good one, wish I had thought of that!
I’ve seen old black and white footage – perhaps 8 mm home movie camera – of Elvis having a fun snowball fight in front of Graceland (I wanted to post it, unfortunately, can’t find it on the net). I think one of the snow covered cars was a 50s Cadillac (don’t know if it was pink, as I said, the footage was b&w).
My yard is as green as can be, and it is growing at a rapid pace. It really needs a good mowing and I am not joking at all. The yard looks more like Late March or early April, instead of now.