Good Wednesday everyone. We’re into the middle of the work week and our weather is about to take on a much different look as heavy rain overspreads the state. This rain will also come with another steep temperature spread from north to south and will usher in more of a wintry look and feel for the coming weekend.
Low pressure across the gulf states will continue to develop and slowly inch closer. This means an increase in moisture streaming in from the southwest. This is a juicy system that should put down a good 1″-2″ of rain for a lot of areas. The rain numbers from the GFS back that up…
The heaviest rain will fall Thursday into Thursday night and… wait for it… wait for it… some areas may hear a rumble of thunder. Shocked? Nah… me either.
The temp gradient today into Thursday looks to be fairly robust from northwest to southeast. Take a look at the GFS…
Upper 30s and low 40s in the north and west and 50s in the southeast. The NAM is much more pronounced with this temp swing…
The colder air in the north means we have to watch the leading edge of the precipitation moving in later today and this evening. It could start out as a bit of a mix for a few areas. This shows up well on the GFS…
The rain looks to slowly pull away early Friday and may end in the form of a mix as the colder air bleeds in from the northwest. There should be a break in the action later Friday into early Saturday before some overrunning precipitation tries to break out on Saturday.
This is ahead of an arctic front that arrives Saturday night. The GFS shows a swath of some light snow with snow showers and squalls possible Sunday…
The Canadian Model is very similar and would give us the chance to put a little snow on the ground in some areas before the weekend is over. As always… we shall see how it plays out.
Don’t forget to hit the tracking pages at the top of the blog. Radars, current conditions and cams are all there. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
What does it look like for next week…NWS seems to see sunshine and temps in the 50’s…
Ugh. Seriously… we’ve had enough rain this winter if the temperatures were what they should be we would have had 5 FEET of snow by now. :/
thanks, Chris. Got the waders out for tomorrow. MIght need to pull out the canoe, from the way our parking lot gets at times! 😉
Hope we get to see some white stuff. either way, glad it is going to get colder, anyway. Have a great day, all.
There just doesn’t seem to be that excitement that Chris usually has…he’s usually giving us, “Folks the next few weeks are going to be…” and we aren’t seeing that as much. I think that winter is slowly slipping down the toilet…..
This winter is the TOILET……
This winter Stinks…..
This winter , well I hate it..
This winter…well it never came, and its over,,For all those saying well I think its going to be a bad Feb and March..WAKE UP,
YOu can “think” all you want,
This winter..”Well all the Artic Air built up north has to go somewhere..hint hint down here,,Yeah its going somewhere, its just traveling north/due east..staying up there, not coming down here..
This winter, well I’m done. I truly dislike 40’s,50’s and RAIN!!! But by what I can tell, most of the entire U.S. has experience a warm winter!
Sure has been a bumer…Just no blocking to hold the cold air in place…Early Spring may be violent when the pattern does flip..Cold air and warm air meeting makes for a bad recipe..But who knows,the faucet may turn off an we may end up like texas…Got a feeling its gonna be a bad year for us gardener’s…But what do i know,had a feeling winter was gonna be historic also…
Thanks CB.
Still prayin’ for snow! 🙂
Looked out the window this morning and seen a new high rise being built down the street. I was thinking.wow…new jobs coming to town. Then I realized that it was not a new high rise but an ARK being built. I seen 2 skunks, 2 squirrels, and etc. I take seeing an ARK being built is not good news. I hope I am in favor with Noah. LOL
Hopefully, the rain won’t be as bad as the models are showing. If it does, what can we do anyways? WE will still breathe and wake up next day. It is just part of life. Yes, I am ready for a period of extreme cold and heavy snow or warm weather with NO RAIN! Enough is enough but the good man upstairs knows what he is doing.
no snow this weekend, also next week WARM,WARM,WARM as any COLDER TEMPS not holding on.
I agree…the models are goofing with us…time to get the lawn mower tuned up.
GFS likely overdoing the artic cold shot this weekend, although dead on with the lack of snow.
My prediction:
Cold air locked up in Canada will likely dissipate over the coming months as it gets absorbed by the warm air to its south and as the snowcover melts away. February, March, and April will each be at least 3-4 degrees above normal for most of the state as the southeastern ridge strengthens considerably. The snowfall totals for the state as they stand now will be the totals for the entire winter season. Starting in March, much drier conditions will begin to materialize. Summer is going to be an absolute scorcher with drought conditions starting in early June and lasting till the end of September.
I should put this up on Intrade’s prediction market, at least earn some money off of this mild season.
Looks like the only drought is long range talk of a pattern change and snow. Seems that has all calmed up. Curse this part of the country and it’s non winters. If I wanted winters like this I would move to north Florida. Kentucky, the Midwest both suck. This has got to be the absolute spit bucket of the world.
I cant seem to get any comments to post
figures !! that one would show up..lol
Never in my 48 years living in KY have we had a early warm spring when the winter months were warm. Just wait & see, we might not get alot of snow but Late March thru April will be way below normal temps.
kind of my thinking as well…the gulf is really warm from non winter so far…all it would take is one GOOD plunge of artic to attack that HOT gulf stream and look out….93 all over again…
If the cold doesn’t return and stay, I have concerns the upcoming months could continue to be bad. Combine the very warm Gulf with La Niña, a few stark cold fronts, with the jet stream cranking just right, the results could be violent even if not on a scale of April 3 1974.
Besides early 1974, early 1890 had a somewhat similar pattern to 2012; January 1890 had F4 level tornadoes in western KY, then March 27 1890 had an epic outbreak (deadliest day of KY twisters ever, including deadliest single KY tornado [Louisville]).
I’m not as much of a cold wx person as others on this board, but better snow than twisters.
Chris is coming up with an update and is taking his time because he wants to let us down gently with the disappointment that winter is saying bye to us…
When did it say hello, I missed it???
What’s sad? Thusfar I believe Memphis has seen more snow than Somerset..
LOL, true. And all that Memphis snow (two different storms IIRC) was in November! Nearby Jackson TN has had nearly 4 inches of November snow.
Or how about Midland/Odessa Texas of all places getting about a foot this season.
well another spring like day here in se ky sunny and 57* outside right now, so I decided might as well start the outside spring honey do list…lol…since winter has decided to go on vacation this yr…might as well enjoy spring!!…lol
36 out this way. Weird. Cold rain. Yuck.
If it waits and comes a big snow “spring break”….I’m going to be soooo disappointed!
To quote the great Bill Paxton from Aliens:
Game over!
I would say bring on spring, but seems it has been a cool spring already.
My prediction:
Everyone will keep saying winter is over…
..until it snows 😀
All right now people, quit being naysayers. Here is where Chris made his winter prediction and I have to say that all I like is just another 29 inches of snow to be on the low end of Chris’ prediction of 30″ to 35″.
http://weather.bloginky.com/2011/11/26/2011-2012-winter-forecast/
If anything, this outlook adds fuel to the naysayer fire. Pending some sudden trend change, looks like CB missed the winter outlook by a bunch. Usually he does good though, but this is not a usual winter.
If you extrapolate from the rolling temperature trend, it does not look good for much snow.
from the town of wayne, wva. for what my 2 cents is worth, i guess it is worth 2 cents. lol!!!! winter is not over by a long shot. by the time the first of may gets here many of you will be saying, “finally spring has sprung”. last year many of u, including mr. chris bailey himself got tired of cold and snow coning in march and april, well, my friends, i am here to tell you that feb. is going to be a lot different for much of the nation in terms of cold and snow and it will likely lead into a stormy and below average temp wise for the month of march and april.
i have been asking the same question for several weeks now and i will ask it again and you cam answer if you wish to.
would any one like snow for easter? what about mothers day? neither one is a guarantee but the block is coming on strong for the next several months, the lanina is weakening, the stratosphere is warming once again and all of this points to cold and snow.
don’t laugh at all of this, just be patient and wait to see if it happens and then if it doesn’t happen i will eat my words. we are having spring in dec. and jan. now we are going to have winter in feb. march and april. thanks for reading and laughing and if u r laughing now i may be the 1 doing the laughing 3 months from today.
I want to believe you so bad toney but the forecast for feb 1st is 50 degrees. Could you give us an idea as to when this cold and snowy pattern could set in?
evening bloggers.
Roloooooo!
Dang, normally CB does a good winter outlook, but seems this will be a big miss.
That said, winter is still here, but gets kind of depressingly ironic to read the description “wintry” in a winter forecast. This winter is whack.
Toney, I’m not so sure I believe a word you’re saying BUT you’re about the only hope I have right now. Never hurts to dream a little… 😉
This winter flat out s@*&s
I’m a little surprised we didn’t get a little colder in January. I expected a little more harshness than what we got, although my winter outlook is doing fairly well. February looks to come in mild as well. My fear honestly is that March-April could shape up to be a terrible severe storm season nationwide.
Maybe the mild winter will transition into a mild spring, since less dramatic temperature differentials to facilitate rough weather.
At this point, I’m just hopin’ a 3-6″ system will effect central Indiana before winter is done. I don’t care if snow happens in my own backyard…just want to make a snowchase within reasonable driving distance…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-3wISqHM0M
check out this video of a winter storm back in jan.88. of a widespread 6+inch snow for all of ky,tn and several other states…ahhh the good ole days…lol
http://tinyurl.com/6noys6s
Just a little winter humor for everyone.
winter is OVER.bring on spring and warm sunshine. If I can’t have snow I want warm temps.