Good evening, everyone. It’s another dreary day wrapping up across the bluegrass state. How dreary has it been around here? Let’s take Lexington for instance. We have had rain or snow on 28 of the past 33 days. That’s right… 28 of 33.
We will add to that streak on Wednesday as a gusty cold front blows in here with a few showers. Much colder air comes in behind this front and will give us periods of snow showers and flurries from Thursday through the weekend.
The 4 day snowfall (not snow depth) numbers from the last three runs of the GFS…
6z
12z
18z
You can see how the numbers bounce around from run to run. And I’m going to keep driving this home… That’s cumulative over a 4 day period and is not representative of how much snow is on the ground at the end of that 4 day run. Some accumulation here… then some accumulation there with some down time/melting in between.
The Individual members of the GFS Ensembles look like this through the same period…
If we add another week and change onto the same Ensembles run, you get this look…
The European Ensembles Control run through the same time…
What do I take away from these Ensembles runs? Nothing more than that they are suggesting our region is going to be targeted by winter weather and snow chances over the next few weeks. Can we cash in on these targets? As always, time will tell but odds favor us cashing in on, at least, some of them.
Enjoy your evening and take care.
Thanks again for all your effort CB. It doesn’t go unnoticed!!
Now bring on at least one good one for old times sake.
No mention of something bigger on Sunday this time? Kind of figured that was gonna happen….lot of crop dusting snows coming our way folks..dang it, ol YAWN meter is still stuck at 10.
I’m thinking my “put a fork in it” outlook from weeks ago is right on target….unfortunately for snowlovers. Spring is around the corner though, bout a week and a half of a little cold, and then we are on our way. Spring sounds good
I’ll stick with real meteorologists.
??????
Jim b, Hamlin just tells how it is no nonsense keeps it short and sweet loves a good cigar type of guy. Hamlin is a good dude. You came across wrong a couple of weeks back with EF5. Thus his comments from time to time.
Savage
Stick a fork in Hamlin..lol..Sounds like a real fun dude..lol
We so far have not gotten tornadoes or ice, so IMO winter would be win compared to others 🙂
We also did not break our back from shoveling snow..sigh
Yet!!!
I’m hoping we can ” cash in” with a ” cash cow ” of a snow!
I’m looking forward to the return of winter. Thanks for all you do Chris.
So what is the European control run potentially seeing? That, in no way shape form or fashion could be from a clipper…. Is there “potential” for a southern storm that no other model is seeing? Valid question here.
I never thought I would see another season like 2011/2012 but here it is. I do not recall seeing a Winter forecast saying that the West was going to get slammed and everyone else essentially was going to torch. Sad
Thanks for all you do CB!!! Love following your info with my daughter and science students! Dear Mother Nature we feel the need, the need for snow!!!
CB just doesn’t have the enthusiasm as he had in past years. It’s just been a boring winter. Not even a week out “chance” all winter. Guess we can hope something blows up that is not showing up. Temps start playing an issue after the next three weeks. It can happen after that, but odds go way down.
I agree with every statement you made
I’ve noticed his lack of enthusiasm this year too. But truly, it hasn’t been an exciting winter. Just have to go through the motions I guess.
How can the euro show so much more snowfall if it also shows us warming up the first week of February?
We need a big snow storm to please us snow lovers. BOTS
Like the look of the new ensembles. Analogs will win out for Feb/March. It will be colder than normal with a couple of warm shots. Not like the first part of winter. Snow chances will be much higher over the next few weeks to a month as long as he Southern Jet keeps producing lows. If not we may just end up Cold and Dry, but my bet is on snow.