Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a cold front crossing the bluegrass state later today and this will kick off another round of gusty showers. This just keeps adding to our incredibly soggy setup of late, but winter is going to take the wet and turn it white.
Temps ahead of today’s front will spike deep into the 50s on a gusty southwesterly wind. Those gusts can reach 30mph at times. A band of showers will zip from west to east across the state later today into the evening…
Northwesterly winds blow behind this front by Thursday. That’s when our first snow shower and flurry maker works across the region. This is the first of several expected to swing across the state through the coming weekend.
The models continue to key on the Sunday system and try to ramp it up just a bit. Here’s the European Model…
We will have to watch and see how much that thing can dig. The more it does, the better the chance for snow with it.
The GFS keeps spitting out a series of light snow makers through Monday. These aren’t overly heavy, but the model does say we get nickeled and dimed by these systems. Here’s the Thursday-Monday total snowfall (not snow depth) from the GFS…
It has stayed very consistent with prior runs. As I have mentioned many times this week… It’s a little here and a little there from Thursday through Monday. This is not what will be on the ground when it’s all over. It’s cumulative during that 5 day run.
Down the road, we find the GFS Ensembles continuing to show a very active winter pattern for the Ohio Valley over the next 2 weeks. You can clearly see that by looking at the precipitation totals from each member of the Ensembles…
If we then ask those same Ensemble members to narrow it down to what it thinks will just be snow, you get this for the same period…
Again, all of that is cumulative over the next 16 days. What can we infer from what the Ensembles have been consistently showing? A. We will likely have a very active storm track across our region. B. That will likely mean a lot of precipitation. C. Snow chances look good with the potential for a winter storm or two to really get going.
This doesn’t mean it’s wall to wall winter weather during this time. It does mean winter weather threats should be common with another winter saving the best threats for the second half of the season. For my taste, that stinks. I want spring, but Mother Nature could care less what I want. I will keep bribing her, though. 😉
I will have a few more updates later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.
Chris – I’m puzzled why a winter weather lover would be ready for Spring on Jan 25th.
I guess I kind of get it though – if it’s not going to do anything exciting – the weather might as well be nice out. But I’m totally not ready for spring in the least.
Agree! Where is snow loving CB?? Kind of depressing that he seems to have gone to the dark side 🙂
I’ve NEVER heard him state he is ready for spring in January before. I guess that’s his way of dealing with a very lack luster winter season. Move on to Spring.
STRAGE: I haven’t either…it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but everybody is different in tastes, especially concerning weather!
I know! This is usually the kind of attitude we get from him at the end of February-looking-toward-March with winter weather looming. We still have the whole month of February to go!
I think the irony of the title says why: Winter Weather Ahead. This is winter and CB has to put that in the title. The irony makes folks want Spring 😉
Why is he wanting spring? Uhh, because it would mean his winter forecast would be accurate (aside from the bold prediction which could still happen). As it stands now, he’s looking at the possibility of his winter forecast (winter is dec to mid-Jan, then warmer) being exactly the opposite of what happens. Dec was either normal or above normal and Jan will certainly be above normal and the meager snow that’s fallen, which is zero for many.
It’s not really any sort of mystery and I don’t understand why people keep overlooking this and trying to avoid an uncomfortable answer when it’s as plain as the nose on their face.
Personally, I still think he’ll be right and what’s being discussed is overblown and won’t amount to much of anything. Feb will end up being above normal and the snow chances won’t play out. CB’s original winter outlook will stand as correct imo.
Uhh…we have a lot of snow yet to receive for the forecast of average to slightly above average seasonal total to be correct…but we have about 6 weeks give or take a little to get there though.
I’m perplexed as well about Chris and his early spring desires. The blog is always busiest when there is snow in the air as most people want the white stuff. It’s winter time so give me winter and come March and April spring will make its presence known.
The actual answer is that Chris is an outdoor runner. He enjoys running. When the weather starts warming up, he will be out jogging. Once it starts, then he is ready for spring so that he can run more.
Long time viewers will remember that he has said that in the past.
I’m with CB on wanting spring.
Once it hits mid-Feb I’m ready for spring. When daytime temps regularly get in the 50s I like it. I love summer (and snow, not cold) ,but to me there is no other time like spring , when new growth begins.
Chris looking for Spring because the Winter is fizzling down the tubes. Like the time Thelma Lou said the special at the diner was terrible, (it really wasn’t) it was just because Juanita cooked it!
Will Harlan County get any accumulation from Friday to Sunday. Trying to plan a trip to the mountains.
Chris has turned to the dark side. Lol As for me and my house we will keep our snow dancing shoes on!! Bring it!
Take care,
Machell
I didn’t think of that but your absolutely right. Chris has been lured over to the Dark Side.
Chris has joined Darth Bubba lol Come back pal I can see you and Jim out broadcasting a big snow and you are in your suit and boots and loving it lol.
The Force is strong in CB. Kuuuuuuuuw! That’s my best Darth breathing effect 🙂
Maybe CB is saying it so it will snow. TWC had snow forecast for entire state of Ky Sunday.
So odd to see full sunshine this morning..
Like the looks of the latest GFS runs. They are consistently showing a storm system around Mon, Feb 6 time period. Latest run is all snow. Lets keep our fingers crossed!
What are the latest GFS models showing for this weekend?
lmao all fantasy runs with the ensembles… you all do remember those runs in December showing a foot plus numerous times??? pretty sure in December I had nothing more than a few flakes flying around a day or two.
Rodger found some evidence for those Ensembles. This is the latest GFS surface map for Feb 6th: http://bit.ly/Feb6-WeCanHope
Too bad that’s nearly two weeks away but it does support Mr Bailey’s ideas. Rodger in Dodger
A new hope. The force is strong with this signal.
Hopefully Jar Jar free too 🙂
Ugh… 😉
Here is the GFS 12Z for the same time frame
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_42.png
however, totals are not that impressive even though the map looks to be…
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012512/gfs_asnow_seus_41.png
The snowfall map only goes out to Feb. 4th (240 hours); however, the surface (radar) map is for Feb. 5th. 🙂
Definitely have hope, but will save excitement for when it actually starts snowing and the models show a storm upon us.