Good afternoon, fellow weather weenies. We are dealing with a very windy change back to some winter weather here in the bluegrass state. A cold front is marching in today, ushering in periods of snow showers and flurries in the coming days.
That front will bring a round of gusty showers through here this afternoon into the evening…
Periods of snow showers and flurries then settle into town on Thursday and carry us through Saturday…
Light accumulations are possible from time to time, especially at night. Winds are going to continue to be very gusty from the northwest.
Those winds really crank on Sunday as a clipper drops in from the northwest. This will likely bring about a steadier swath of light snow into early Monday…
That will be our best bet for accumulations as temps will be much colder, and the ground will have had a chance to freeze by then.
The GFS total snowfall numbers (not snow depth) through Monday…
You can definitely see how the higher elevations do much better in this type a setup. In some cases, the models will underplay that.
After that system zips by to our east, another cold front then charges in here late Tuesday and Wednesday…
The GFS follows that up with a more potent front and storm system late next week into the following weekend…
That would certainly seem to imply the GFS Ensembles are onto something in the extended forecast period. As always, time will tell.
I will update things later today. Enjoy your day and take care.
Thanks CB! At least scenic snow is better than no snow 🙂
Thanks CB!
Those Rain-Snow setups always make me nervous.
The last one to turn out was the March 2015 storm, and boy was that a STORM. Would it be too much to ask for a 1993 Blizzard for next month?
It would interesting to see how much snow that last map would be; since, those are 12 hour snap shots…
Yep, rain to snow events can bring a SNOW-WHOOPIN’ given the right setup. Getting excited again to track some cold and snow! Rodger in Dodger
Things could get interesting with that GFS storm that keeps showing up. It is becoming a trend and ensembles are seeing something as well. It could, if all goes right, give us some hefty snow totals. What do you all think? Thanks for the update CB, you da man!
I think you guys have been so snow deprived that you all are in some sort of snow dreamland lol
Those ensembles have been showing snow since December and we have gotten very little in relation.
If you believe the GFS ensembles we should have received close to 100 inches of snow by now.
Yup
thumbs up
I do believe snow will come, but my family will be more excited when we have the winter storm warning.
Im still hoping Old Man Winter comes through, and proves me wrong. And I know we now live in a time of ALTERNATE REALITY, but the real reality is, it doesnt look good. Ever since I started with the “put a fork in it” outlook weeks ago I have been hoping to eat my words. Maybe it will still happen. Props to CB for seeing this back in October.
Seeing what in Oct??? Sorry but I don’t believe we have had a slightly above avg snow fall, ice storm and we are above avg for temps!!!
See what coming in October? There’s no way anyone can see what will happen 3 months in weather NOBODY. It’s difficult enough for mets to get a 7-10 day forecast accurately correct. I’m not bashing on any met that’s just the reality. CB was giving his best opinion and thought process on weather patterns and analogs. There’s no way your going to convince me that CB or any met saw record warmth god only knows how many times. The deluge of rain the lack of snow, the west coast getting a onslaught of winter weather etc etc etc.
What I mean by lack of snow is what we have gotten so far. Next to nothing would be a accurate statement. That could still change only takes one good storm but as of right now it’s been a completely lack luster year if your a fan of winter.
Louisville broke the record set in 1880 of days above 32 degrees in January–16 was the record (I believe).
Ok, Prelude….I will just say CB ELUDED to a possible lack luster winter then. That better? LOL.
Where is the YAWN meter?
Still 10, but holding out hope…
Next week’s winter storm locked and loaded?…. check!
Subsequent disappointment, obligatory yawn meter readings and Mayberry schtick?…double check!
That’s funny and likely true for a percentage (if not all) who frequent this blog. Rodger in Dodger
How is Jim b. Allowed to have such an opinion like that on here. I would be crucified by all.
Ha, I thought you and Jim b were the same guy! Too funny!
Because he says give cb props after he is rude to him.
EF5, it was just over and over and over..that is why
How in the world was anything in that post ride to anyone? Wow
Rude
I see someone brought their feelings to the message board today
Areas that could receive a coating of snow include parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, as well as the mid-Atlantic region of the I-95 corridor.
Another clipper storm may swing southeastward by the middle of next week.
Looks like CB is right on board with a backloaded winter. This was posted today on another popular weather site.
“While the northwesterly flow of cold air will be enough to prevent many major storms from spinning up along the Atlantic coast, the flow could back off enough to allow one or two major coastal storms through the first half of February,” Pastelok said.
As a result, the chance for a large coastal storm exists. Should a coastal storm develop, it could bring substantial snow to part of the East and perhaps severe weather in the Southeast during the first week or two of February.
With little to no sunshine here in what seems like years, I’m all about some snow…any snow. Need something to brighten things up around here!!!
Can someone look back at the feb 2015 storm to see what the ensembles showed 2 weeks before the storm hit? LOL
I mean, are we only to believe ensembles if they show zero snow?
Yes only believe them if they show little to 0 snow its better that way
18 z gfs puts us in all rain
For what day? I’m looking at the 18Z right now and it is showing all snow, two Monday’s in a row.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_17.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_43.png
Next Sunday the sizable storm
That’s backside snow still a few inchs
Charleston NWS has rain or a mix predicted in the afternoons through the weekend, some flurries at night. With mid 40’s for highs by next Tuesday. Looks like another brief cold spell with maybe a nighttime dusting if that is to be believed.