The 60s Are Back

Good Monday evening everyone. Mild temps are back with us as we get set to close out the month. If you’re a fan of a spring feel… you will love the weather we have set aside for you on Tuesday. All of this takes place as some major changes begin to show up on the February horizon.

Highs on Tuesday will range from 60-65 in many areas. Clouds will be on the increase and some showers may break out by the evening hours. Those showers will continue into Wednesday as a wave of low pressure works through here.

After that… it’s all about the location and timing of the upper level low that is expected to close off by the weekend. That’s always a struggle for model and forecaster and this is no different. The European Model is getting back to bringing this system through here over the weekend…

Take that and ANY model with a grain of salt. Wild swings will continue to take place from run to run and model to model. That’s the nature of the beast.

I’m actually growing much more confident on the period after the weekend as the indices continue to point toward a deep trough in the eastern US. The models are also locking in on this potential. The GFS brings the frozen tundra into the country by the end of next week…

If the indices are to be believed… we have the potential for some extreme options for February and early March. That’s a big IF as they are going up against a seasonal trend that has not been kind to cold and snow lovers.

Have a great evening and take care.

18 Comments

jonb on January 30, 2012 at 6:39 pm

End of next week…before you know it, this week will be july

ohiospin on January 30, 2012 at 6:42 pm

well, we’ve been standing in line for months, maybe we can finally get on the roller coaster!

Every Model Does Not Tell a Story on January 30, 2012 at 7:52 pm

If past history is correct,the weather will be cold with a dusting of snow. I have very low confidence that western & central Ky will receive much snow out of this event.

Wes on January 30, 2012 at 8:21 pm

NWS in Jackson now going with an ALL RAIN event for this weekend and the first of next week. Was rain/snow…surprise…surprise…

Bengalfan on January 30, 2012 at 8:31 pm

Ok, I’m not going to jump around from model to model,,,here u go bengalfan is forecasting a big win..starting Sunday afternoon at 4.23pm it will start light rain at 36 degrees, at 7.45 it will start snowing, by midnight we wil have 3inches, heavy snow after midnight 5 more inches by 6am , then light snow until 3.40 Monday afternoon with 3 more additional snow a total of 11 inches by 6pm on Monday night.

There u go, u heard it from the Bengalfan! Of course if ur a Bengal as well, u know we r always a little crazy!

But seriously, this is the forecast that I will stand by , if I’m right, I’m starting my own blog, If I’m wrong, well, I won’t b wrong.

Btw, this is for cky. It will b raining in Knoxville, all of ky will get a good snow from it.

Mike on January 30, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Sounds good to me. How do I “like” it?
tornadolarkin on January 30, 2012 at 9:34 pm
I’m agreeing with you just for the fun of it! haha of course I hope you’re right.
- alena on January 31, 2012 at 6:02 am
  I like your forecast

Sancho Panza on January 30, 2012 at 8:37 pm

Hey there Every Model Does Not Tell a Story,

Ironically your posts do: naysaying. Constructive criticism is peachy but as Bill Murray’s character in STRIPES stated, “lighten up Francis”. Snow or not let us enjoy the ride.

Every Model Does Not Tell a Story on January 30, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Live here in the Commonwealth for almost 52 years. Just playing the odds. If I am wrong,I will be the first to celebrate. I like snow as much as the next person, that is why I post comments on this site mainly during the winter. Just not going to buy into the frozen swamp land projection.

Jeanette on January 30, 2012 at 9:27 pm

This from NWS Louisville:

‘Will currently follow the 00Z GFS with a mild and dry forecast for
Monday, but the ECMWF is hinting at a pattern shift that could lead
us to make a large adjustment.’

Wes on January 30, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Hope this is right!
Debbie on January 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Just saw that… 🙂

Debbie on January 30, 2012 at 9:38 pm

Going out on the proverbial limb here…from plenty of experience…? 🙂
1) SNOW-PLENTY of it(6″+) from about 30 mi’s N. of the Ohio River, mainly S. IL. thru IN-OH….on Northward….?! (It’s a ‘given”…always…)
2) From the Ohio River/Jefferson Co. KY, about 15 miles South in a line from Brandenburg to Lexington, Snow, but not a lot??- 1-3″ sporadically…
3) Rain/ICE from a line from E-Town/Bardstown/Stanford, 30-35 mi’s N/S of the line…
4) Anybody South of that line , well, drag out your ‘Ark” building plans again! 🙁

I could be wrong, usually am?! Then again…??!

Coffeelady on January 30, 2012 at 10:01 pm

Wow! the weekend sure islooking like it will be interesting for someone. Lets hope its us! Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to the next update. Want to know more about the mid week system. (Waders or just high top leathers) 😉

bjenks on January 30, 2012 at 11:02 pm

The only good thing about this winter is that it has been warm. At least it is not sunny and 15 degree’s…..Could do without all the rain also.

Todd on January 30, 2012 at 11:34 pm

Just heard a Met from channel 11 in Louisville say that 1960 was warm and wet until Feb&March, 11in. of snow in Feb & 23in. in March that year with below 0 temps in March also! Anything can & has happened in KY?

MarkLex on January 31, 2012 at 2:05 am

True. It goes against the seasonal trend but a trend can’t last forever. Seasonal trends have been broken before 😀

jonb on January 30, 2012 at 6:39 pm
End of next week…before you know it, this week will be july
ohiospin on January 30, 2012 at 6:42 pm
well, we’ve been standing in line for months, maybe we can finally get on the roller coaster!
Every Model Does Not Tell a Story on January 30, 2012 at 7:52 pm
If past history is correct,the weather will be cold with a dusting of snow. I have very low confidence that western & central Ky will receive much snow out of this event.
Wes on January 30, 2012 at 8:21 pm
NWS in Jackson now going with an ALL RAIN event for this weekend and the first of next week. Was rain/snow…surprise…surprise…
Bengalfan on January 30, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Ok, I’m not going to jump around from model to model,,,here u go bengalfan is forecasting a big win..starting Sunday afternoon at 4.23pm it will start light rain at 36 degrees, at 7.45 it will start snowing, by midnight we wil have 3inches, heavy snow after midnight 5 more inches by 6am , then light snow until 3.40 Monday afternoon with 3 more additional snow a total of 11 inches by 6pm on Monday night.
There u go, u heard it from the Bengalfan! Of course if ur a Bengal as well, u know we r always a little crazy!
But seriously, this is the forecast that I will stand by , if I’m right, I’m starting my own blog, If I’m wrong, well, I won’t b wrong.
Btw, this is for cky. It will b raining in Knoxville, all of ky will get a good snow from it.
- Mike on January 30, 2012 at 8:48 pm
  Sounds good to me. How do I “like” it?
- tornadolarkin on January 30, 2012 at 9:34 pm
  I’m agreeing with you just for the fun of it! haha of course I hope you’re right.
  - alena on January 31, 2012 at 6:02 am
    I like your forecast
Sancho Panza on January 30, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Hey there Every Model Does Not Tell a Story,
Ironically your posts do: naysaying. Constructive criticism is peachy but as Bill Murray’s character in STRIPES stated, “lighten up Francis”. Snow or not let us enjoy the ride.
- Every Model Does Not Tell a Story on January 30, 2012 at 9:10 pm
  Live here in the Commonwealth for almost 52 years. Just playing the odds. If I am wrong,I will be the first to celebrate. I like snow as much as the next person, that is why I post comments on this site mainly during the winter. Just not going to buy into the frozen swamp land projection.
Jeanette on January 30, 2012 at 9:27 pm
This from NWS Louisville:
‘Will currently follow the 00Z GFS with a mild and dry forecast for
Monday, but the ECMWF is hinting at a pattern shift that could lead
us to make a large adjustment.’
- Wes on January 30, 2012 at 9:31 pm
  Hope this is right!
- Debbie on January 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm
  Just saw that… 🙂
Debbie on January 30, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Going out on the proverbial limb here…from plenty of experience…? 🙂
1) SNOW-PLENTY of it(6″+) from about 30 mi’s N. of the Ohio River, mainly S. IL. thru IN-OH….on Northward….?! (It’s a ‘given”…always…)
2) From the Ohio River/Jefferson Co. KY, about 15 miles South in a line from Brandenburg to Lexington, Snow, but not a lot??- 1-3″ sporadically…
3) Rain/ICE from a line from E-Town/Bardstown/Stanford, 30-35 mi’s N/S of the line…
4) Anybody South of that line , well, drag out your ‘Ark” building plans again! 🙁
I could be wrong, usually am?! Then again…??!
Coffeelady on January 30, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Wow! the weekend sure islooking like it will be interesting for someone. Lets hope its us! Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to the next update. Want to know more about the mid week system. (Waders or just high top leathers) 😉
bjenks on January 30, 2012 at 11:02 pm
The only good thing about this winter is that it has been warm. At least it is not sunny and 15 degree’s…..Could do without all the rain also.
Todd on January 30, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Just heard a Met from channel 11 in Louisville say that 1960 was warm and wet until Feb&March, 11in. of snow in Feb & 23in. in March that year with below 0 temps in March also! Anything can & has happened in KY?
MarkLex on January 31, 2012 at 2:05 am
True. It goes against the seasonal trend but a trend can’t last forever. Seasonal trends have been broken before 😀

18 Comments

Follow Chris Bailey

Account Login

Weather Archives