Good Monday everyone. We are about ready to kick the month of January to the curb and many snow lovers would likely like to kick it even farther than that. The month has been a rather mild one, so it’s only fitting we send it out on a mild note. February is just around the corner and the pattern shows signs of trying to give the snow and cold folks something to talk about.
The short-term is more of the same. Highs today will range from the low to mid 50s under mostly sunny skies. Overall… this is a great day taking shape. Tuesday is going to try to go above and beyond today’s weather as we have a good shot at hitting 60 degrees. Yep… 60 on the last day of January sounds about par for the course.
We begin to see some changes into the middle of the week. Clouds will increase on Wednesday as a few showers try to develop. Temps will still be mild with readings in the 50s. The showers are ahead of a weak wave of low pressure that passes through here later Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will come down a few degrees behind this system for the second half of the week.
The weekend is an interesting one as I fully expect a big upper level low to cut off at somewhere across our region. The exact placement of this system will be the big determining factor on where a storm develops. With a significant change to the overall pattern across North America taking place… the models are going to struggle big time. Add in a possible closed low and you will get some wild swings from run to run and model to model.
That said… here’s a look at where the latest GFS run thinks the upper low winds up…
The NAVY NOGAPS is now the most threatening of the current model runs…
It appears I bragged on the European Model too quickly. It had been very consistent with the setup for next weekend… then decided to keep the upper low way to the west. Like I said… get used to some wild swings over the next few days.
The transformation to a big ridge up the west coast of North America will continue over the next few weeks. This should force a deepening trough across the eastern part of the country. Check out the 500mb height anomalies from the GFS Ensembles for the second week of February…
That’s some serious blocking showing up across the west and up into Alaska. You also see some blocking near Greenland showing up and that’s another good sign of a colder pattern around here.
I will have another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.
To me, it looks like our week goes from warm and dry.. to warm and wet by the end of the week. No signs of Winter actually showing up. At this point, I admit that I’m surprised at how Winter 11-12 is ending up. My outlook is in great shape…except that I thought January would be more harsh than it has been.
Who knows.. maybe March will throw down on us. We’ve seen it before. March is always the wild card.
Nice Blog WXman…I had no idea you had a blog until I realized your name had a link attached 🙂
WXman….after viewing six different sources, two being local in CB and BG and two being from around the midwest and one from the eastcoast. Andrew with The Weather Centre, I believe he is based out midwest and is not a Met., but interested in weather. Snow Day is also out out of midwest and Alan Huffman from Raleigh Weather Examiner. (10 Year Met). You entered my list as number five a couple of weeks ago with the prediction for ice and a couple other storms you have followed in the past. You are the only one who has come out with a prediction for Rain five days out. All the others are talking the potential for “A” storm. Snow Day has us (Lou. Metro) dead center of “Major Winter Strorm” I see that as the FENCE (BubbaG). Someone in the OV is going to get snow this weekend, but as we all know cold rain has been the hit of the winter and being on the FENCE does not bold well with Kentucky. Andrew has us in no snow, heavy 1-2 ft. snows north Indy/GLakes region, but does say it could push futher south. Alan is talking snow in Raliegh which means snow for EKY (with a large storm Met.Lou. would get a little snow out of it)
Three different storm tracks to follow….Looks like each one picked a difrerent model to go by. I like the GFS Ensemble.
This is going to be one to hype and I suspect the number of hits to this blog will be reaching record numbers by weeks end.
CB….Thanks for all you do and I hope to see some snow maps over the next few days.
THINK Cold and the SNOW will follow!
I64 = fence
Seems warn air has kicked too much butt this winter to not offset potential from a system. Actual results (regression) should be used as part of the composite forecast.
Seeing as how air temps. are going to be in the 50s every day from now through Sunday… I don’t see how on earth people could be predicting a snow storm for us. Are people still fixated on the crappy Euro model? What’s going on?
Like I said… this entire week (including the weekend) is going to remind us more of March than January. I want a catastrophic winter storm too.. but it’s just not showing up in the foreseeable future.
That is why “Actual results (regression) should be used as part of the composite forecast”.
I agree it will be too warm around here, but folks north of us have a better chance- if anything pans out.
agreed.
So what about the neg NAO & AO and positive PNA everyone is talking about now? You disagree?
You can’t disagree with the facts of the data behind the PNA/NAO & AO. Computer models are different and only suggest the tracks of low and highs across the country.
With the three aligning it just means that the atmosphere in the eastern US is favorable for big time storms to roll through. Who is on the Snow side of the FENCE or the Rain Side won’t be determined until the storm is a day or day and half out and even that can change. Might see a couple of these lows roll through here before things flip back to spring mode…..
IMO, you take a composite forecast of all three, but weighting them based on how accurate they have been. Example: If model A has been the most accurate, B the second and C the least:
A = 45%
B = 35%
C = 20%
This is simplistic, since certain models are better with certain systems, but still is
within sanity 😉
Actually my question was directed toward wxman– I apologize for not clarifying. 🙂
WOW…the 12z run of the GFS sure thinks that cross polar flow will kick in and bring the artic tundra down along with a huge NOR’EASTER!!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120130%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=264&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F30%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=108&nextImage=yes
Softball practice outdoors with mild temperatures sounds terrific to me….I guess if it decided to come on the weekend it would be ok as long as its gone by Monday since we take weekends off lol….I guess that would be the best of both worlds 😉
I have no idea what it will do, but you have to go what it has done all year so far. Maybe a trough will come in this weekend, (it has this year so far, set up for 1-2 days and its gone (overtaken by the Southern Warmth). Will we get lucky and the Low will Catch the trough, maybe, but I really don’t think so.
Everything (METS, MODELS, and the TALK) will be flip-flop all this week!
My hope is on Friday everybody says-NO, its not going to snow, and BAM, sat and sunday it snows a heavy snow 15″ . that would make me SMILE.
NWS Nashville routinely writes about the AO and its effect on winter patterns. They just posted an article about the AO showing some signs of more persistent cold:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ohx&storyid=78300&source=0
That was the worst write-up I’ve ever seen. Every chart they showed has the same isobars in the TN Valley. They actually hurt their own argument rather than support it. Wow.
Can already see it coming. Indy will get 2 feet of snow Sat causing the airport to shut down as fans are arriving for the game. Thousands of people miss the game and the announcers spend half the game talking about it instead of about what is happening on the field. Of course I could care less since I’m still in mourning.
Efffff all the models. Might as well spin a wheel of chance which I think some Mets do.
here we go again … blah blah blah next week looks interesting blah blah blah ….. same story, different day; we have all been reading this crap since Oct and nothing has materialized. Face the facts people – there is not going to be a winter this year … no signs point to it, but all signs do point to mild/warm weather …. the cold air in greenland is staying in greenland, warm out will start coming even more frequent from the gulf of mexico …. let it go — get out the golf clubs, clean up the mower, buy some flowers and get ready for spring.
Last time I saw you on here, you were yapping about how making a call for ice was a stupid thing to do. Three days later, NWS was issuing Winter Weather Advisories for ice. 🙂 Just sayin’…
yea and who got ice — a small part of n ky … does that make you efin Isaac Newton ?… all you was doing was blowing a big ice storm out of your rear … just saying
if you remember you dogged me for predicting 70 deg that Tues — we guess what Einstein it hit 67 in SE KY just saying
Seriously man..? How old are you, 12? 13?
CB, please scan your posters, geez…
hey newman …
let’s play a game … it’s called fill in the blanks — 2 words … starts with F and ends with U
mind your own business
Fuzzy gnu? Friendly adieu?
Frozen snafu? I could do this all day UKfan. Word up Newman. I got your back.
Don’t you have to report to work at the popcorn stand downtown in a few minutes? 😉 Seriously man, you’re a moron. If you don’t have anything positive to contribute, hit the couch and let us handle it. P.S. please change your screen name. You are a disgrace to wonderful UK fans all over.
let you handle it — i’m cracking up, what do you do that’s positive … talk crap? talk about a disgrace – you portray yourself to be a weather expert -you are nothing but a welfare loser who sits around drinking nearbeer and eating cheesy poofs.
look, haters say what you want, i could care less but everyone is entitled to an opinion on here, but certain ones have turned this site into a real lame place, no wonder nobody ever posts on here anymore.
Chris, is there a way to keep such vile posts off the board? We come here to read and talk about the weather. We don’t come here to be subjected to name calling, flaming and such. Thanks!
You have such a terrible attitude. Don’t comment if you going to be saying rude things…and just stop reading the blog.
here we go again…UKfan.going..BLAH BLAH BLAH…Get a life dude or dudette…What ever you are??? Moron as Wxman stated is a good start.
I was almost ready to get my hopes up, but I am afraid WXman may be correct. I guess time will tell, I keep thinking we have to get lucky at least once this winter.
NOAA 8to14 day temps for east of the Miss River has below normal temps showing up, And has Alaska above normal. Now that is a pattern change 🙂
Maybe it will push it this way 🙂 😉
Interesting article about the cold snap in Europe.
Pay close attention to the 2nd & 3rd paragraphs…
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/30/severe-cold-snap-kills-32-in-eastern-europe/?test=latestnews
Don’t give up just yet…
Here, I’ll make it easy:
BELGRADE, Serbia – A severe and snowy cold snap across central and eastern Europe has left at least 36 people dead, cut off power to towns, and snarled traffic. Officials are responding with measures ranging from opening shelters to dispensing hot tea, with particular concern for the homeless and elderly.
This part of Europe is not unused to cold, but the current freeze, which spread to most of the region last week, came after a period of relatively mild weather. Many were shocked when temperatures in some parts plunged Monday to minus 20 Celsius (minus 4 Fahrenheit).
“Just as we thought we could get away with a spring-like winter …” lamented Jelena Savic, 43, from the Serbian capital of Belgrade, her head wrapped in a shawl with only eyes uncovered. “I’m freezing. It’s hard to get used to it so suddenly.”
Well, I have been enjoying this mild winter. Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE snow. But it has been nice to not have to break ice or bring warm water out every morning when I feed the farm. I am grateful it has not stayed below freezing for days on end like past winters. That said, I still would like to see one good snowfall!
Looking for a pattern change, hopeing for a pattern change to some colder weather. If we don’t get some soon, I am afraid we will see some young buds get killed, because sooner or later, we are going to have to pay for this mild (but nice) weather. The maps certainly do seem to show some colder in the works. Lets hope so. Have a great Monday, all.
This weather would be nice but, everytime it gets above 50 the wind blows 25to30mph! That makes it feel much colder. Nice is 70 & light winds in may book.
Funny every time the models go nuts for one day, the Mets start changing everything around. Does it seem to anyone else that everyone is scrambling every minute?
Anyway, local Mets are now off the idea of any snow this weekend here in the Louisville area…
I sure want some snow! But I gotta tell ya, the warm sunshine with a cool breeze is fabulous today 🙂 …now if I could convince my garlic that its still winter 🙁
Not trying to be mean, but folks keep falling for the same mistake over and over again. Storms are hyped a week out, only to amount to nothing..
We like getting all hyped up…. cause we know some day (maybe not this winter) it will come true. 🙂
I’m forewarning you all that there will be a pattern change to winter time…. I mentioned a month ago that my daughter had a couple of out town athletic events in January and I’d have to drive. That was the one time we had a little bit of snow around here. Then next weekend I had to take her north of here, ran into all that freezing rain, sleet that WXMan was talking about. Now… she has four out of town events coming up in mid-Feb. so I’m expecting a full-blown pattern change to winter and all kinds of bad roads for me to drive on. Love snow, just don’t want to have to drive somewhere in it, sigh.
A few weeks ago when a blast of winter hit KY, I had to transfer a patient to U of Cincinnati hospital. US 27 in Northern KY was a hot mess of ice and stalled traffic. Coming back to Lexington on I75 wasn’t so bad once I got past exit 175.
HPC isnt buying the warm up. As of today they are showing a snowstorm for the ohio valley!
Most local Mets have flip flopped to a 45 degree rain event this weekend?
Model madness, The Notorious Weather less channel said last week a turn to a colder Feb was on tap, today they flopped and said Feb should be very warm???????? Model jumpers or what.