Good evening everybody. What a weather day we are wrapping up. Temps well into the 60s with a few springtime showers and possible rumbles of thunder. I love March!
Our short-term weather will continue to see an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday. Blah, Blah, Blah.
The system for the weekend is starting to come into a little better focus and I like what the GFS Ensembles are coming up with…
That’s a colder look than several of the other models, but it makes the most sense as of right now.
The change to a more wintry look for the eastern half of the country continues to look fairly strong. It’s one that tries to lock in for a while as we head into the next 2-3 weeks. The pattern is basically going to reverse itself and send a big ridge up the west coast into Alaska and put a deep trough into the eastern part of the country.
The GFS Ensembles show how the cold increases around here…
Have a great evening and take care.
tx CB, everything still on course to upset the apple cart for all the warm weatar luvars
UK 77 UT 65
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I would love to see some snow and a more winter-like pattern. However, after getting my hopes a few times this year, I feel a little jaded, LOL. The model runs for the long term do look promising, though.
My son found some flowers in the yard today and after such an warm and sunny day, a February winter is starting to sound less exciting. Nevertheless, beggars can’t be choosers. So, bring on a historic February snow and cold event, then we’ll talk Spring.
With this major ridge building in the west and trough in the east, should we expect anything as significant and prolonged as our friends in Alaska and Canada have been experiencing??
Well I still have faith.. thanks Chris! 🙂
Etownky….Not given up here in Lou. either…Still have all of Feb. and little of March for snow…..
NWS in L’ville and Jackson are both saying warmer with rain…Could someone please nudge the record, it’s playing the same tune and it is getting old.
I love reading other peoples blog just to see what they come up with but some people just dont get it, Chris Bailey is the man……
Here is a clip from: MESOTRACK – The Kentucky Weather Network
It looks like Winter maybe gone… (sorry snow lovers)… Here is the temperature and rainfall probability outlook for the month of February. According to the data.. we will remain above normal for both temperatures and rainfall for the month of February. -mR
LOL.
I may be reading your intent wrong, but the trends do support this and except for a few small spikes, the actual outlooks have suggested cold air and then shift out.
There seems to be no regression to adjust the misses in the model data. They miss, and then continue rolling with misses. Trends are a powerful thing, since based on actual results.
CB gets this and through his wording, appears (to me) to be getting weary of the outlook data. That said, seems real odd not to see another several day cold spike before spring “officially” kicks in.
My two favorite basketball teams win big tonight. A great day to be a Laker and Wildcat fan.
Chris,
Considering every rolling outlook of data has been wrong and shifts a week or two out, seems best to disregard them and go with the rolling trend 😉 Outlook data has mainly been bust city and has no cred for this winter.
Be like Luke and just use the Force, since the computers have choked on outlooks for this winter. Not your fault, since is what it is.