Good Wednesday and welcome to the month of February. The flip of the calendar doesn’t mean very much in terms of changing up our weather. The short-term outlook continues to run on the mild side as we keep seeing the change to cold get pushed later and later by the forecast models. The signs are there… but it takes more than signs to totally switch this pattern.
High temps today will range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the region. We do have a front crossing the area with scattered showers and maybe a thundershower or two. These will continue into the overnight hours as a wave of low pressure works eastward along the front.
Track all the rain and action on the radars page at the top.
The air behind this system isn’t much different from what’s ahead of it. That means temps for Thursday and Friday will stay in the 50s for highs. These look like pretty nice weather days across much of our part of the world.
The storm moving our way for the weekend is going to bring a lot of snow… for areas well to our west and north. This low should track right across us and weaken as it does so. Here’s the GFS Ensembles view of it…
That is just an ugly-looking system as it gives us a nasty weekend and has little chance at satisfying the needs of snow lovers around here. It’s just one of those years, my friends. Or is it?
For those of you who know a little bit about tracking signals… take a look at the chart below…
That is a strongly positive PNA… a very negative NAO, EPO and AO taking shape over the next few weeks. Based purely on those… I have to say WOW! That is a strong case for a very wintry pattern to develop for much of February. We haven’t seen those indices even come close to showing those kinds of numbers this winter. Those numbers were actually showing up often over the past few winters, instead.
I get that this winter pattern argues strongly against true winter conditions kicking in for an extended time. But, this is going to be a heck of a fight ahead as those indices show a very powerful signal for wintry weather.
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
So all the signs point to the pattern flipping and some cold coming down this way. My only worry is that it will take all of February to do so…leaving March and most of April stuck in a cold, wet mess.
Forget winter…I’m ready for Spring.
as i have said in a couple of past comments before, we r in for a very wet and cold spring and every one that has been wishing for cold and snow may be screaming where is spring before all is said and done. i have asked the question several times and i will do it again, snow on easter, anyone? heck what about mothers day? don’t laugh, it may very well happen.
we have had spring in dec. and jan. and now we r going to have winter in feb. march most of april and possibly into the month of may. my friend, winter imo is far from over! thanks for reading and god bless.
Bring it on! 🙂
Thanks Chris! ♥
Signals are pointing to a pattern flip or at least a time when it will be different but I have seen this before this Season; honeslty, I am about one more day way from getting a bad case of Spring Fever!
*sigh* I’m trying really hard to keep the faith but I’m being tempted to join the dark side and start wishing for an early spring. Just one nice snow to play in with the grandchild…. Is that too much to ask?
Keep the hope alive and keep sending the great updates, Chris. THANKS for all you do.
I know everyone is going to say that “we heard that before and nothing has changed”, but as CB stated we have not seen numbers on those indices this winter. This storm just may be the huge storm that settles winter into the east for a couple of weeks. The flip just may be on people. I guess time will tell and if the indices are incorrect, so be it. I don’t mind the mild weather at all. Just don’t want cold rain or a sunny 20 degree day.
THINK SNOW!!! February will be our month.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
You took the words right out of my mouth Fatman 22.
You took the words from me, too. That’s the first thing that came to my mind. I’ll believe it when I wake up to winter wonderland (or, perhaps a spring wonderland…).
Bring on severe weather!
I agree completely….wonder if this year could be nearly as interesting as last as far as severe weather goes?
While there are of course lots of factors and nature can always throw wild cards, looks like the severe wx potential is real:
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/01/preliminary-severe-weather-forecast-for.html
We are in La Niña (just like last year at this time) which tends to favor stronger, longer track twisters. The Gulf is abnormally warm/juicy, just like last winter (except for brief if bitter cold in Dec 2010, the Gulf stayed warm despite even Atlanta and Dallas getting cold and snow). In contrast, even the Gulf was consistently cold in 2009-10 (remember the hypothermic lizards falling from Florida trees?!) which was perhaps partial reason for less severe wx in east that spring (exceptions being the Yazoo City MS and Toledo twisters).
Severe wx is exciting to me, but sobering as well.
Last April 27, the monster Ringgold GA twister came within 8 or so miles of my parents in the Chattanooga/Cleveland TN area. Another twister in northeast Georgia (near where GA/SC/NC come together) missed my brother by roughly 20 miles.
This season has the potential to break records only one year old. If that cold air stays in Canada in February and March, April may have one of the worst tornado outbreaks in history. With the gulf being extremely warm, and the southeastern ridge, heck, February could be insane for tornadoes. Wouldn’t surprise me.
The only good thing about this winter is that we haven’t had to deal with the expectations of a “thumping” snow storm that was suppose to put down 12″ or more just to have it fizzle out or miss us to the north or south.
Bring on spring!
Nothing but 50s and 60s forecast here for the remainder of the week. Mid 40s for the start of next week. I wouldn’t mind seeing one good snow, but I’m not going to be overly disappointed if we don’t. I would say I’m ready for Spring, but I think it’s already here, lol.
I’ll admit the indices are looking PERFECT for a switch to colder weather.
However, oddly the GFS is still holding to it’s guns. Check out the middle of the month. The entire nation is in zonal flow and warmth. It’s wild to see run after run after run after run of the model showing warmth, when the teleconnections forecasts are all looking winterish. Perhaps the model is picking up on something not seen in the index charts?
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F01%2F2012+06UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=300_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=348&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Model battles…indexes in the negative or positive…zonal flow…cut off lows…la nina…what do you get with all of that…mud…It’s like seeing something in the corner of your eye. It’s there, but when you turn to look AT it…it’s gone.
Seems this was a similar outlook a little over a month ago and did not pan out. I am sticking with the current trend (on average) and a chance of a 2″ to 4″ event before winter is done.
My tractor mower is going for repair and service today…. It WILL be needed- sooner than later.
Solid write up from SD at Talkweather. Worth the read. Hope to hear some of your thoughts on this!
http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/57734-why-i-think-the-pattern-will-change/
Reminds me of the write-up from the other day that NWS BNA did. Lots of ifs and wishes, but nowhere do you see any charts showing true troughing moving into the eastern U.S. I will believe a pattern change here when I see it. Right now everything I’m seeing would indicate that the zonal flow will continue. Time to get the lawn mower ready. Lots of 40s and 50s for highs all the way through Valentine’s Day.
I still think March is the wild card. It could honestly go either way. Brutal cold, or tornadoes.. either way. I don’t think it’ll be boring though.
I’m OK with -15 temps though if it happens.. I’m tired of being sick and all my co-workers being sick. WE need cold air to kill off these viruses.
I am with you, WXman. At this point, being realistic is the less painful route to take. I’m so done looking at models now. They should be the ones jumping off the cliffs. I just want to hibernate ’til next winter. Someone wake me up if by some miracle, it starts snowing.
I noticed before they archived the post, BNA updated the article, pushing back any cold air until later. The isobars on Feb 10 had dropped considerably for our area. Still, we should believe it when we actually see it.
Sigh………, better click the other windows and get back to work. At least when I’m typing away on this board, my bosses might still think I’m busy as a beaver 😉
Bring on spring!
just saw a moth on my porch. my mother always said when the moths showed up spring was here. looks like it is.
Two days ago: My forecast–I’m still holding steady:
“Snow sunday 7:00ish, snow heavy at night, unitl midday monday (total-11 inches”..But since the METS and all the GOOD LOOKING MODELS get to do it, so do I….PUSH ING IT BACK A WEEK..this is for next sunday night Feb. 6th!!!!
Count it!
c’mon, you are bailing to early! maybe the closed low takes a day longer to come up, the cold air sneaks down in place, and you’re on the money. I am sure this will not happen, but if it does you will regret pushing back a week!
The models are the culprit, but most folks like CB have now tempered due to the actual rolling trend.
All that cold stuff wants to stay north and north west this winter.
The theme for this winter has been “Wait Until next Week”. Next week I am going to start servicing all my outdoor equipment and bring down from the attic my spring clothing.
This has been a extremely disappointing winter. I hope this spring is a little cooler than normal, maybe that will keep the tornado activity down.
And for the life of me I cannot understand why anybody would be routing for severe weather that decimates whole towns and more important lives.
I’m EXCATLY with you why ANYONE would say, “Hoping for Severe Weather”…
Snow is a big room full of feathers,,,Severe weather is like a big room full of knives.
Bye the way, my forecast that I have for sunday night is on. It’s maybe for this week, maybe the next sunday,,,I have that right..The METS and MODELS have the same right..
I agree…Give me an ICE STORM before a Tornado!!!
Although the severe weather season is my second favorite behind our snowy season which is just beggining….Next week…or the week after that…or…
Perhaps one can still appreciate the dynamics of storms and still abhor the aftermath.
Back in college, one of my friends was a wx nerd that had a great-uncle in 1970s Brandenburg; the great-uncle’s house was missed by literally blocks by that horrific tornado. Husband/kids were away, wife home, all uninjured, but they knew many of the victims.
http://www.april31974.com/
http://www.april31974.com/brandenburg_ky_april_3_1974.htm
Brandenburg was nasty even by F5 standards. Asphalt removed from a parking lot. Nearly impossible to tell the make/type of one car as it was so badly crushed and mutilated. Wouldn’t wish this on any town.
I grew up in Brandenburg. The effects still haunt anyone that was around in 1974. Today, just the mention of tornado makes the hair on my neck stand up! I could tell so many horror stories…
To say that someone who enjoys severe weather wants destruction brought upon innocent people is outrageous, and is ignorant. I am a weather enthusiast, who enjoys all types of weather. I adore severe weather season, and want to see a tornado every year. That does not imply that I want someone to be killed and for a town to be decimated. I see every year that towns are torn up because of tornadoes and it is heart wrenching because you realize that it would have been you or one of your family members. Trust me, I don’t want destruction as much the next guy. But I still hope to see severe weather.
Tornado’s are fun to chase unless they want to run on your property, they kill people folks, A nice tornado is like a nice rattle snake? They are real interesting to look at but they can turn on you at anytime.
I agree with all of you that severe weather is devastating and I don’t wish damage, injury, or death on anyone but as a weather lover I am strangely fascinated by storms from snow to hail and tornadoes….it’d be a lie if I said anything else and I can’t help it lol. I LOVE all things weather without discrimination 🙂
Worst. Winter. Ever!
Can’t be the worst winter…we haven’t had one yet. 😉
🙂
Look at the models all u want to, but the forecast for next week is 40s with no precip. The winter that never started is over
lost another ICON TODAY SOULLLLLLL TRAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN!!
DON C was awesome but man to take ur own life is bad. u cant come bavk from that.
A lot of worst winter ever comments. truth is if LEX does not get another inch of snow by the end of spring it will be the least snowiest JUL-JUN period ever. CVG currently at 2nd least snowiest meteorological winter ever.
CVG missed the ultimate snow less record by 0.1″
You folks on here act like a mild winter is something rare Ky has, sorry to break it to you, but this is the norm for KY. In the last 35 years the good winters with big snow events that I remember is 78, 87, 93, 94, 96, 98!
6 winters out of 35, do the math! (these are winters that had a 10plus in. snow event at 1 time somewhere in KY)
2004 west KY! Forgot! OK 7 out of 35. 20%
So in other words….we are due.
🙂
We’ve had 3 pretty strong lightning and thunder strikes since 9 pm. Raining hard now. Is it April already?
It must be really bad. 10:14 and CB has not put out an evening post…..Bring on summer and 90 degree’s I am ready to open my pool….
I have to agree with Wxman’s comment earlier today. I am tire of being sick, and my co-workers hacking and coughing and beign sick. That is why I keep saying we really NEED some cold weather, snow or not. While I am a snowlover like most everybody else here, I am more interested in getting some cold weather. We really do need it.
Snow would be nice, too, but I have about forgotten what it looks like. Oh, and Todd, the winter of 76-77 had a lot of snow as well. We were in the sweet spot then, too. Oh, for the good old days. ~sigh~ 😉
You are right, there is always a few sweet spots that get more than most folks. But in general those years are a accurate picture of most winters in KY 🙂
Hail in southern Fleming County.
Can’t believe I heard a rumble of thunder just a little while ago. Is it April, oh no wait it’s February…..I’m not liking this weather one bit!!!! Enough mother nature, bring us some SNOW so we can all stop growling!!!