Good Wednesday and welcome to the busiest travel day of the year. Today is also the day we pay tribute to one of the best movies ever… Planes, Trains and Automobiles. 
It’s a classic movie centered around Thanksgiving and I make sure to feature it every Wednesday before Turkey Day.
Our travel weather today is looking MUCH improved over recent days. Some leftover showers will get out of town early across the east as sunshine increases from west to east. Highs today will range from 50 east to low and mid 50s west.
Thanksgiving Day will be a gorgeous one with highs in the 50s under a sunny sky. Black Friday shoppers will find great weather as they stand in line for 12 hours to save 23 cents. A few clouds will increase by the afternoon as temps warm to near 60 or a little better.
This takes us into the weekend and the likely beginning of a wintry pattern around here and for much of the central and eastern parts of the country. Does that mean its wall to wall snow and cold? Of course not, but it does mean we will have our snow chances and should cash in on a few of those along the way.
The big news continues to be the system moving in for later this weekend into the first half of next week. The models are struggling with each run looking different from the last. The European Model is really having troubles and that’s to be expected with energy coming from the southwest. We pointed this out a few days back.
None of the models are without sin, but the GFS from Tuesday night was close to fitting what I think this pattern may bring.
It shows the energy cutting off across the region late Sunday into Monday and then hanging around…
The end result of this run is for a quicker cold front sweeping eastward with rain and some thunder increasing Saturday night with our temps taking a big tumble from west to east on Sunday…
Most of the models have a second piece of energy diving in early next week. This run of the GFS really likes the cold air with this and produces some accumulating snows…
I am not endorsing the above model run as the models won’t have a good handle until around Thursday or Friday. Just know that we do have the chance for accumulating snows next week to go along with a colder pattern.
I am fully expecting this colder pattern to hang with us into early December.
More updates will come your way later today. Until then, let’s enjoy one of the greater moments in movie history…
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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This as as most SNL Alumni big screen efforts is as funny as an unsuspecting swift kick in the crotch. IMO
J*know
watch it last lit CB know u post our tgiving theme mvie. u the man u have a GREAT TGIVING WITH UR FAMILY. LUV YA MAN.
Thanks Chris… That was the best scene in the whole movie! Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Thanks for the promising report, Chris. May everyone have a blessed Thanksgining.
“Larry Bird doesn’t do as much ball handling in a night as you do in an hour.”
“Train don’t run outta Wichita, lessin’ you’re a hog or a cattle…. People train runs outta Stubbville.”
Hysterical movie, Chris. We lost John Candy way too soon.
Glad to be rid of this rain for a few days. Hate the mud!
Seems like you have been forecasting snow and cold since October and pushing it back each week. This month will end up being a very warm and wet month. Eventually is WILL get cold and it WILL snow as winter is almost here. It looks like another shot of heavy rain early next week, but all you can talk about is what would amount to just some snow showers. Given the recent rains, one would think you would focus on the flooding potential with this system as this would be by far a bigger impact to the public than a skiff of snow. This is a pattern of progressive systems where cold shots are transient and quickly replaced by mild weather which would be far more prevalent. Mongering snow at every corner 7 days out and then pushing back week after week is like passing out rotten candy to little kids.
Yeesh – did Chris poop in your Cheerios or something?
We’ve had some peeks at the sun in Frankfort this morning (not many, but still some sun).
Thanks for keeping us informed, Chris! Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving Chris and everyone here! Wish it was a cold and snowy one to help with the holiday mood!! I’ve noticed several posts about cold and snow but not very many comments lately?? Hope the blog is not losing its followers as I really enjoy reading everyone’s opinion!!!
Probably one of my all time favorite movies ever. John Candy was one of the greatest.
And right on cue… GFS totally abandons the idea of a stalled low in the OH Valley this weekend. It’s throws all this talk out the window.
I have to say that Chris has been saying middle of November to late-November for a while. And I also have to say that, here at my place at least, we had a snow that actually put a coat on the deck. That is pretty strange considering that was a few weeks back or so.
And seeing that some others are know showing snow for early next week I do not think that Chris’ forecast has been that far off. Especially considering how hard it is to pinpoint and exact time that far out. I mean, saying a change over in mid- late- November with a snow that early and now it looks like it may just happen is fairly impressive in terms of weather predictions. Heck, I cannot get a good 5-6 day forecast from the weather channel or some local stations.
And I have seen a few forecasts know showing below average temperatures for the last few days of this month and into early December. Does this hold? I do not know but it could be a sign that the change is upon us.
And I also remember reading some experts, on different sites, saying we would be drier here this November as recently as late October. That did not seem to hold true. And it seems that some of the early, preliminary forecast showed average for my neck of the woods. Now, most show cooler to some varying degree of their shades of blue. And considering that if we are wetter and cooler than normal that would really lead to some nice snow.
My concern is this trend for the warmer, moist air to start followed by the cold air and wind. That could make a bad combination especially if we start with a very cold rain and end with ice and then snow. Gotta keep that generator prepped for duty.
Very bad news from this Henry guy at AccuWeather:
In a typical La Nina pattern, you see the jet splitting with the main thrust of the jet going across Canada and a southern stream heading across California and the Southwest and southern Plains. I think the problem lies with the southern jet and how the models are handling the jet once it gets over the southern Rockies. The consensus is to form a closed low that drifts across the country in some manner causing areas of showers and thunderstorms. What I don’t see right now beyond today are any major snowstorms east of the Rockies. I know there has been some concern that the GFS brings the cold into the East toward the end of the period, but I have seen that on the model just about every run for the last several weeks. The way I going in all this is to keep a persistent pattern into the first two weeks of December with warmth overwhelming the East and storminess centered across the West, specifically the Northwest.
Really?
I will take it easy on you since it’s the holidays.
2 observations…
– Reading comprehension is vastly overrated.
– You really should pick a better name than one including “reject”.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy those special cheerios.
Yup, we are now in that infamous 4-6 day window where GFS “changes it’s mind”. If history repeats itself, the track record is that on Saturday GFS will go back to what it was showing up until yesterday.
You rookies out there should leave the forecasting to Chris. Will You never learn that Chris OWNS old man winter in these parts. Henry Who??
Why so much hostility during the holiday season? Folks be thankful if you can worry about the weather, because things could always be much worse. Have a great Thanksgiving, and God bless.
Not surprised with the GFS in this time frame. However, the Euro has backed off the extreme as well. Decent trough and cool down come through early next week, but the cut off meanders over northern FL/S. GA and the Carolina’s before heading northeast.
Is that you Bill Meck??
As stated… the Euro sucks in this type of a setup. It simply never ever correctly handles energy ejecting out of the SW. The NOGAPS and Canadian are extreme.
Not sure about the comments on the GFS… still has quite the dual closed low structure across the OV and produces light snow through the middle of next week.
I agree, the Euro has a SW bias problem with systems. Though, the GFS also has a bias to produce excessive areas of light QPF with very little if any forcing…especially under upper lows (warm and cold season ones). I do not disagree with the idea of some light snow showers next week. However, while some are already talking about accumulations, that is purely speculative at this juncture considering all the other environmental variables that have not been addressed in detail. It will be the weekend before the models get a grip with this.
I think we should all take a deep breath & back away from the keyboard for a minute! Some of our worst winters ever did not get going until after Christmas (including the harsh one’s of the late 70’s! Remember the mild winter of 98?
20+ inches of snow in February 🙂
Totally agree about anyone talking accumulations or saying no snow. Kinda silly to be doing that at this point. Never quite understood why so many want to box themselves in 5 or 6 days out.
Hope things are going good with you. No invite to the winter meetup this year? 😉
I agree. I lost my cousin yesterday in a very tragic accident. We have to be thankful for what we have and enjoy being able to discuss the weather.
Exactly. sorry for your loss. everyone should puts things in perspective
Thank you. It is going to be a tough Thanksgiving. He had 4 children, 2 of which are very young.