Good evening to one and all. I promised an evening update on the big weather change ahead for late this weekend into early next week. My time is rather limited this evening as I have been taping the winter forecast for tv and getting the winter forecast ready for you guys. That will be online at some point this weekend and will be featured on my kentucky.com blog and in the Sunday edition of the Lexington Herald Leader.

Yes… I am a busy weather dude.

The system moving in late this weekend into early next week really is a pattern changer. This will be a mega cutoff low somewhere across the Ohio Valley. I need a few more days before I can say exactly where this thing sets up. There will be snow with this upper low as it will have some very cold air underneath it. Rain will be out of ahead of it and I suspect many areas will see a rain to snow setup. When that happens will be determined by where the upper low camps out at.

More energy is likely to dive southward into the upper low by the middle of next week and this could bring us another shot at some snows.

Again… there is no way I can get anymore specific on this system. Forecasting a cutoff low pressure is always tricky and that’s especially the case in the winter.The farther west it closes off the more rain you see. If it’s right on top of us or just to the east… hello snow.

This whole setup ushers in a big trough across the eastern half of the country into the first week of December. The GFS Ensembles show the height and temp anomalies for week one of the new month…



I will talk more about the late weekend and early next week system with a full update later tonight. Take care.